2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was also a decidedly +NAO.

He's not getting that one. I also made up a historical composite of 20 analogs with that dominant anomaly, and it showed a slight SE ridge with near average temps in the Northeast.. in mid-late February that's 40s.  Something right off the coast is going to effect us more than 90N. 

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We hit 80* on Jan 26, 2024, under a -350dm, +3-4 std +NAO. +NAO's were responsible for last Summer's heat too, and you can see how the ridge is under the Greenland trough this Summer as well. If the historical correlation is -0.5 for -NAO and +0.5 for +NAO, it's just recently been -0.2 for -NAO and +0.8 for +NAO.. but the overall flux pos/neg of the earth's circulation remains the same.. the changes aren't that great. 

Not as much correlation between the NAO and Northeast temperatures over the last decade or so. February 2015 was our last really cold month and one of the strongest +NAOs. It’s really how the higher latitude teleconnections blend with the subtropical patterns which determine our sensible weather around the Northeast. 

While you might not consider the changes great, shifting a gradient only hundreds miles north will have a big effect on snowfall and temperatures near where the gradient used to set up. But if you are far enough north and the gradient is still to your south than it isn’t a big deal for you. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not much correlation between the NAO and Northeast temperatures over the last decade or so. February 2015 was our last really cold month and one of the strongest +NAOs. It’s really how the higher latitude teleconnections blend with the subtropical patterns which determine our sensible weather around the Northeast. 

While you might not consider the changes great, shifting a gradient only hundreds miles north will have a big effect on snowfall and temperatures near where the gradient used to set up. But if you are far enough north and the gradient is still to your south than it isn’t a big deal for you. 

Donsoutherland has recently posted a NAO-correlation map for the last decade, showing >0.5 correlation anomalies, everything taken into account. If he reads this, maybe he can re-post that work. It's still correlating. And it's correlating >75%. Pacific pattern effects us more, and it has overpowered the NAO but it's not some random occurrence. 

Again, Florida had 10" of snow.. which was the first time ever over 4" since the 1800s. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Donsoutherland has recently posted a NAO-correlation map for the last decade, showing >0.5 correlation anomalies, everything taken into account. If he reads this, maybe he can re-post that work. It's still correlating. And it's correlating >75%. Pacific pattern effects us more, and it has overpowered the NAO but it's not some random occurrence. 

Again, Florida had 10" of snow.. which was the first time ever over 4" since the 1800s. 

You can always find a random spot that does well with snowfall even though the overall CONUS snowfall was below average last winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can always find a random spot that does well with snowfall even though the overall CONUS snowfall was below average last winter. 

You can always find a random spot that doesn't do well with snowfall even though the overall CONUS did decently last winter.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can always find a random spot that doesn't do well with snowfall even though the overall CONUS did decently last winter.

More spots in the CONUS finished with below average snowfall than above average snowfall for the 24-25 season.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not much correlation between the NAO and Northeast temperatures over the last decade or so. February 2015 was our last really cold month and one of the strongest +NAOs. It’s really how the higher latitude teleconnections blend with the subtropical patterns which determine our sensible weather around the Northeast. 

While you might not consider the changes great, shifting a gradient only hundreds miles north will have a big effect on snowfall and temperatures near where the gradient used to set up. But if you are far enough north and the gradient is still to your south than it isn’t a big deal for you. 

Last cold winter month, yes. But there have been really cold months since  JFM 2015, albeit in other seasons, like April 2018, November 2018, November 2019, and June 2023. 

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Last cold winter month, yes. But there have been really cold months since  JFM 2015, albeit in other seasons, like April 2018, November 2018, November 2019, and June 2023. 

The most significant cold in my area over the last decade was 12-26-17 to 1-8-18. It was mostly Pacific driven. This is why my comment about other factors having a greater influence on the Northeast temperatures than the NAO. You can see the generally lower heights over Greenland to Iceland. The best blocking was over Western North America. 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY 10 coldest 12-26 to 1-8 periods on record
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1918-01-08	13.4	0
2	2018-01-08	17.9	0
3	1904-01-08	20.6	0
4	1881-01-08	21.9	0
5	1879-01-08	22.2	0
6	1887-01-08	22.4	0
7	1981-01-08	23.7	0
8	1940-01-08	23.9	0
9	1968-01-08	24.2	0
10	1877-01-08	24.6	0

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The most significant cold in my area over the last decade was 12-26-17 to 1-8-18. It was mostly Pacific driven. This is why my comment about other factors having a greater influence on the Northeast temperatures than the NAO. You can see the generally lower heights over Greenland to Iceland. The best blocking was over Western North America. 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY 10 coldest 12-26 to 1-8 periods on record
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1918-01-08	13.4	0
2	2018-01-08	17.9	0
3	1904-01-08	20.6	0
4	1881-01-08	21.9	0
5	1879-01-08	22.2	0
6	1887-01-08	22.4	0
7	1981-01-08	23.7	0
8	1940-01-08	23.9	0
9	1968-01-08	24.2	0
10	1877-01-08	24.6	0

Here was a post I made elsewhere on 1/7/2018 about it being the coldest 7 days in my area since Jan of 1977:

SAV just experienced its coldest 7 consecutive days in 41 years, its first below 32 F week in 28 years, and a tie for its 8th coldest since records started in the 1870s! The longevity of this cold is one for the ages.

10 SAV weeks at or colder than 32 F starting from coldest:

- 1/1886
- 12/1917-1/1918
- 2/1895
- 1/1977 & 1/1970 tied
- 2/1899
- 1/1887
- 1/2018 & 12/1901 tied
- 12/1989

Only 4 of these 10 weeks have occurred during the last 100 years! By the way, the snow & ice remain largely intact in shady areas and we're over 4 days after it ended! I still have one icicle!

1/8/18 edit: Note that this long duration cold occurred despite a +NAO. It was supported by a +PNA/-EPO combo as well as a -AO when averaged out.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-NAO's not correlating with an East coast trough in the cold season is not really a global warming point, besides the +temps that are everywhere. Starting in 2013, but really going back to 2007, -NAO's have been happening much more frequently with +epo/-pna, and +NAO's with -epo/+pna. Something is connecting the N. Hemisphere pattern. The Pacific is a stronger pattern and has led more. Now the last 2 Winters -NAO's have been happening with a CONUS trough. The real anomalies were Dec 2022 and March 2023, but we seem to be getting a little bit out of it the last 2 cold seasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

More spots in the CONUS finished with below average snowfall than above average snowfall for the 24-25 season.

Sure, the WPO was still strongly positive in the seasonal mean, but it was better in many spots do the PNA mismatch and -EPO. The NAO and poorly placed PNA ridge foiled February. I am not debating that the HC is edging nothward, but there is more to it than that...the pattern has also sucked.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The most significant cold in my area over the last decade was 12-26-17 to 1-8-18. It was mostly Pacific driven. This is why my comment about other factors having a greater influence on the Northeast temperatures than the NAO. You can see the generally lower heights over Greenland to Iceland. The best blocking was over Western North America. 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY 10 coldest 12-26 to 1-8 periods on record
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1918-01-08	13.4	0
2	2018-01-08	17.9	0
3	1904-01-08	20.6	0
4	1881-01-08	21.9	0
5	1879-01-08	22.2	0
6	1887-01-08	22.4	0
7	1981-01-08	23.7	0
8	1940-01-08	23.9	0
9	1968-01-08	24.2	0
10	1877-01-08	24.6	0

I agree the Pacific is more important than the NAO, which is why the vast majority of the past decade has sucked. But all else equal, I will take a somewhat negative NAO...there are degrees of "suck". I think a -NAO would have helped last February...that doesn't mean I think its more important than the Pacific, but some of this mixed precip events probably would have been more wintry.