2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface is approaching -6c right now.. if that's normally 65F water, right now it's 55F. That's raw, not adjusted for global warming and everything.. I do think that it really can't go much lower than this given how warm everything is, without it being some anomaly. And the subsurface does fluctuate more than the surface (Kelvin/Rossby waves)

It's still July.. if Aug comes in <-0.5 ONI, it has a good chance of making it 5 straight months.. even Sept would have to carry only through January for an official Nina. Tropical tidbits currently has Nino 3.4 at -0.6c, but I know CPC is much warmer.. looks like they are -0.1 to -0.2

I default to CPC...obviously if the data I am using is ultimately incorrect, then that changes things.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

I adjust with the model consensus, with each model adjusted for what I perceive to be its bias. My latest prediction of a -0.4 ONI low was based on July runs. I’ll re-examine in August.

I don't. I try to call BS when I think they are wrong, as I did last year when they bailed on cool ENSO. I am confident they are too meager with it yet again.

[bluewave]

Very strong La Niña background state continuing with the record July heat and Southeast Ridge. So a continuation of these record subtropical ridges. The models have frequently been underestimating the heat and ridging in the East.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You think that will enhance MJO Phases 4-5-6 in the Wintertime? 

So far MJO phases phases 5-6-7 have been heavily favored. The difference between this year and last year is that the forcing hasn’t been as strong/amplified

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very strong La Niña background state continuing with the record July heat and Southeast Ridge. So a continuation of these record subtropical ridges. The models have frequently been underestimating the heat and ridging in the East.

 

 

 

How far did the 100 degree heat extend into Central Florida Chris? Was Orlando at or above 100 too? They have a 1 in 10 year rate of 100 degree high temperatures, about equal to JFK.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How far did the 100 degree heat extend into Central Florida Chris? Was Orlando at or above 100 too? They have a 1 in 10 year rate of 100 degree high temperatures, about equal to JFK.

 I’m not Chris, but I already know the answer because I followed it closely. Tampa tied Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Leesburg for the hottest of major FL reporting stations yesterday with 100. This tied a daily record at JAX and was easily a new daily record at Leesburg. Lessburg’s tied with 1990 for a monthly record, but July records go back only to 1959.

 Orlando was “only” 97.

 Edit: it’s interesting that Tampa was tied for the hottest in FL yesterday despite being one of only very few stations in FL having not hit 100 before yesterday. It took just the right (or wrong) wind (a very rare for July light NE wind to keep the seabreeze away) along with few or no clouds to make it happen as the tweet Chris quoted mentioned. Even a strong NE wind likely wouldn’t have allowed it because that would bring in too much cooling over from the Atlantic side.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very strong La Niña background state continuing with the record July heat and Southeast Ridge. So a continuation of these record subtropical ridges. The models have frequently been underestimating the heat and ridging in the East.

 

 

 

The long range guidance, both summer and winter has consistently been too cold in the east since 2016 and has been grossly underestimating the SE ridge/WAR

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

La Nina is developing

At the very least, this should mean a warm Fall. 

Increased chances for -PNA this Winter if that strong cold pool maintains (subsurface has more flux than surface SSTs. It could wane in the coming months. It did last year.)

I’m gaining more confidence with each passing day that this met fall (SON) is warmer to possibly much warmer than normal. I also see a risk for drier than normal as well; not to the level of last fall, which broke records, but drier than normal none the less

[mitchnick]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The long range guidance, both summer and winter has consistently been too cold in the east since 2016 and has been grossly underestimating the SE ridge/WAR

There was no consensus last year with a noticeable disparity between the Cansips and Euro for example. But since seasonal modeling runs vary from 4×/day with the Cfs2 and monthly forecasts from others, it's a moving target depending on which forecast you're using. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How far did the 100 degree heat extend into Central Florida Chris? Was Orlando at or above 100 too? They have a 1 in 10 year rate of 100 degree high temperatures, about equal to JFK.

Here were some NWS high temperatures reported yesterday in Central Florida. Clermont is a co-op with a 7 am observation time, so that 101F was from Saturday. It actually recorded a high of 103F yesterday [but which goes in the books for today]. Looks to be the highest official reading reported on xMacis. I did notice a few smaller airports around 102-104F in northern parts of the state.

As you can see, the light northeasterly flow brought the coolest weather to the immediate east coast with mostly low 90s, but from Orlando west, upper 90s and some isolated 100F readings were common all the way to the Gulf coast.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How far did the 100 degree heat extend into Central Florida Chris? Was Orlando at or above 100 too? They have a 1 in 10 year rate of 100 degree high temperatures, about equal to JFK.

 At 10AM today, Tampa is 2 F cooler than 24 hours ago and the wind is light from the S instead of from the seabreeze pinning rare N. Both of those along with climo point to very little chance of another 100 F high there today.

@bluewave

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I’m not Chris, but I already know the answer because I followed it closely. Tampa tied Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Leesburg for the hottest of major FL reporting stations yesterday with 100. This tied a daily record at JAX and was easily a new daily record at Leesburg. Lessburg’s tied with 1990 for a monthly record, but July records go back only to 1959.

 Orlando was “only” 97.

 Edit: it’s interesting that Tampa was tied for the hottest in FL yesterday despite being one of only very few stations in FL having not hit 100 before yesterday. It took just the right (or wrong) wind (a very rare for July light NE wind to keep the seabreeze away) along with few or no clouds to make it happen as the tweet Chris quoted mentioned. Even a strong NE wind likely wouldn’t have allowed it because that would bring in too much cooling over from the Atlantic side.

It reminds me of what happened at JFK in June with the back to back 102 degree highs.

 

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Here were some NWS high temperatures reported yesterday in Central Florida. Clermont is a co-op with a 7 am observation time, so that 101F was from Saturday. It actually recorded a high of 103F yesterday [but which goes in the books for today]. Looks to be the highest official reading reported on xMacis. I did notice a few smaller airports around 102-104F in northern parts of the state.

As you can see, the light northeasterly flow brought the coolest weather to the immediate east coast with mostly low 90s, but from Orlando west, upper 90s and some isolated 100F readings were common all the way to the Gulf coast.

Thanks, I see that the 100 and 101 readings weren't all that far from Orlando.  I also just heard that Jacksonville hit 100 too.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I’m not Chris, but I already know the answer because I followed it closely. Tampa tied Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Leesburg for the hottest of major FL reporting stations yesterday with 100. This tied a daily record at JAX and was easily a new daily record at Leesburg. Lessburg’s tied with 1990 for a monthly record, but July records go back only to 1959.

 Orlando was “only” 97.

 Edit: it’s interesting that Tampa was tied for the hottest in FL yesterday despite being one of only very few stations in FL having not hit 100 before yesterday. It took just the right (or wrong) wind (a very rare for July light NE wind to keep the seabreeze away) along with few or no clouds to make it happen as the tweet Chris quoted mentioned. Even a strong NE wind likely wouldn’t have allowed it because that would bring in too much cooling over from the Atlantic side.

this wind scenario reminds me of JFK and the south shore, wherein a light northerly wind increases the temperature (an offshore wind) but if it's too strong it brings in the cooler air off the Sound.

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The long range guidance, both summer and winter has consistently been too cold in the east since 2016 and has been grossly underestimating the SE ridge/WAR

Last winter the underestimation of the Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic ridge occurred with the storm track. So the heaviest snows kept shifting north right up until storm time with a stronger ridge  than forecast. But in previous winters it has been both storm track and the overall average 500 mb pattern that the models regularly underestimate. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’m not Chris, but I already know the answer because I followed it closely. Tampa tied Jacksonville, Gainesville, and Leesburg for the hottest of major FL reporting stations yesterday with 100. This tied a daily record at JAX and was easily a new daily record at Leesburg. Lessburg’s tied with 1990 for a monthly record, but July records go back only to 1959.

 Orlando was “only” 97.

 Edit: it’s interesting that Tampa was tied for the hottest in FL yesterday despite being one of only very few stations in FL having not hit 100 before yesterday. It took just the right (or wrong) wind (a very rare for July light NE wind to keep the seabreeze away) along with few or no clouds to make it happen as the tweet Chris quoted mentioned. Even a strong NE wind likely wouldn’t have allowed it because that would bring in too much cooling over from the Atlantic side.

Tampa is weird. They avg 91 days annually of temps 90F+ but just dont hit 100F.

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow such a historically cold February in a moderate la nina in 1933-34? Thats one thing I remember about the first part of the 20th century, the la ninas used to be much colder and much snowier.  Thats why 1995-96 and 2010-11 were much more like them than any recent la ninas.

 

Like most Nina winters, there were still plenty of ups and downs. And this is a classic example of how bitter cold during winter can go wrong for us. It was a near avg snow season overall (42.6") including heavy November snows and a 10" late March storm. But mid winter? January was actually mild. In fact, the entire second half of January saw either 0 snow on the ground or just a T. In February the bitter cold hit but with it came light snows. Only a T-1" of snow covered the ground the first third of the month, the middle third was bare, and the last third had 1-2" snowcover. This along with frequent bouts of below zero cold.

Another strange thing is that while Feb 1934 was brutally cold for the east, for the rest of the midwest it wasnt nearly as cold. While Minneapolis and Chicago finished colder than avg, it wasnt near record cold like it was for Detroit and east. It was also a very bare month for Chicago and Minneapolis.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m gaining more confidence with each passing day that this met fall (SON) is warmer to possibly much warmer than normal. I also see a risk for drier than normal as well; not to the level of last fall, which broke records, but drier than normal none the less

I think this strong STJ and very wet pattern is going to shut down pretty soon. 

[michsnowfreak]

I love Fall, so i usually am not too picky about temps. I'd rather have a dry sunny October. But I still hope for more seasonable temps to enjoy the color show.

[KakashiHatake2000]

same michsnowfreak 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Wonder if we'll start to see this typical La Nina Fall pattern as temperatures start to descend into August

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Did someone say continuous +AO?

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wonder if we'll start to see this typical La Nina Fall pattern as temperatures start to descend into August

Textbook -IOD developing @bluewave

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The long range guidance, both summer and winter has consistently been too cold in the east since 2016 and has been grossly underestimating the SE ridge/WAR

Pretty sure I recall @bluewave stating that the Euro was too warm for last winter....but you're right for the most part.

[snowman19]

Pretty sure I recall [mention=564]bluewave[/mention] stating that the Euro was too warm for last winter....but you're right for the most part.

Yes, surprisingly for once it was too warm. Other that that lone exception, the long range modeling has been too cold in the east for almost 10 years now

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, surprisingly for once it was too warm. Other that that lone exception, the long range modeling has been too cold in the east for almost 10 years now

Yes, no argument there. Last season was a glaring deviation from the norm in that respect.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty sure I recall @bluewave stating that the Euro was too warm for last winter....but you're right for the most part.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast system from before the winter missed the +PNA mismatch that I was discussing the potential for last October with the early MJO indicator. So the long range forecasts from months like October were obviously too warm since it missed the correct 500mb pattern. 

But in previous years without a mismatch, the seasonal model was too cold from October for the 22-23 and 23-24 winter forecasts. It missed the record warmth both winters from the fall seasonal forecasts.

Now the 2nd way the Euro was incorrect last winter involved the medium term 15 day EPS. It was too cold overall in the Northeast but did better in other parts of the country. 

The 500 mb long range pattern forecast for February missed the Southeast Ridge linking up with the -5 AO in mid-February. It had a classic KU look around the time of the big -AO drop. We wound up with the storm cutting west of the big cities leading to the record snows in Toronto and Montreal. In the past we didn’t get these Southeast Ridge linking ups with such strong blocking near -5 SD around Greenland.

The model actually did a very good job at the higher latitudes. But missed the subtropical ridge amplification. This is why the heavy snows it had around NYC in the longer range forecasts wound up significantly further north. This has been the case since the 18-19 winter with the big snowstorm always being 8-15 days away.

The GFS and CMC have had the same issue so not so not just singling the Euro out. But it’s the highest scoring model overall so it gets more attention. The charts below represent a repeating model error or bias since the 18-19 winter. 

 

EPS long range forecast had the classic KU look but missed the strong Southeast Ridge amplification leading to the first February cutter for a -5 -AO

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ECMWF seasonal forecast system from before the winter missed the +PNA mismatch that I was discussing the potential for last October with the early MJO indicator. So the long range forecasts from months like October were obviously too warm since it missed the correct 500mb pattern. 

But in previous years without a mismatch, the seasonal model was too cold from October for the 22-23 and 23-24 winter forecasts. It missed the record warmth both winters from the fall seasonal forecasts.

Now the 2nd way the Euro was incorrect last winter involved the medium term 15 day EPS. It was too cold overall in the Northeast but did better in other parts of the country. 

The 500 mb long range pattern forecast for February missed the Southeast Ridge linking up with the -5 AO in mid-February. It had a classic KU look around the time of the big -AO drop. We wound up with the storm cutting west of the big cities leading to the record snows in Toronto and Montreal. In the past we didn’t get these Southeast Ridge linking ups with such strong blocking near -5 SD around Greenland.

The model actually did a very good job at the higher latitudes. But missed the subtropical ridge amplification. This is why the heavy snows it had around NYC in the longer range forecasts wound up significantly further north. This has been the case since the 18-19 winter with the big snowstorm always being 8-15 days away.

The GFS and CMC have had the same issue so not so not just singling the Euro out. But it’s the highest scoring model overall so it gets more attention. The charts below represent a repeating model error or bias since the 18-19 winter. 

 

EPS long range forecast had the classic KU look but missed the strong Southeast Ridge amplification leading to the first February cutter for a -5 -AO

 

Yes, understood with respect to where the correction vector was in the medium range and on a seasonal level in non-mismatch years.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The charts below represent a repeating model error or bias since the 18-19 winter. 

I'd say starting with the 16-17 winter. The last real ubiquitous snowstorm was the January 22-23, 2016 event. Even when we had that great 17-18 winter, the storms were capped at 8 inches at PHL and 10 inches at NYC. The only one since the 2016 snowstorm that went over those thresholds in NYC is the late January/early February 2021 snowstorm, and even that one didn't do well in coastal areas. (The January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm did well in the coastal areas, not so much west of 95.)

Something happened after the super el nino that's capping the potential for a ubiquitous snowstorm.

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wonder if we'll start to see this typical La Nina Fall pattern as temperatures start to descend into August

A "traditional" La Nina pattern here would be a mild Fall then near/below avg temps towards December. 

I believe Fall would also be on the dry side before turning wet in winter. With the rapid drop in average temps during Oct & Nov, a mild Fall still can be full of crisp, sunny days and the color can be spectacular. Once the leaves fall then im all about getting those blue departures in here lol. Not sure about other locations, but here, November has the largest difference in average temps from the 1st to last of the month of any month of the year.