2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Southern Hemisphere AAO so far this July:

1-Jul-25				1.8937
2-Jul-25				2.248
3-Jul-25				2.8385
4-Jul-25				3.1945
5-Jul-25				2.5837
6-Jul-25				2.1543

The correlation is pretty cool.. right at 90N the following January

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NWS DJF 2014-15 probabilities released in 11/2014: best cold chances centered in south

Actual 2014-5 DJF vs 1981-2010: coldest in NE not south

I'm not picky about this stuff.. I would say that it was a good forecast because it got the West coast ridge, and half of the below average trough. Usually they are at least near by what happens with forecasts. 

[michsnowfreak]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....this is a tough pill for some to swallow, apparently.

If the seasonal models were showing a warm or torch winter there is exactly 0.0% doubt that the same ones so against it being mentioned would be all over it. It always goes without saying that a model should never be taken verbatim, but wed have all these posts about why the models are catching on to something.

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm not picky about this stuff.. I would say that it was a good forecast because it got the West coast ridge, and half of the below average trough. Usually they are at least near by what happens with forecasts. 

NWS 11/15/2013 probabilities for DJF 2013-4 weren’t all that telling as they underdid the prospects for widespread cold though they hinted ok at where the coldest and warmest ended up being:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 day lead though.. I'd rather see what their forecasts looked like 3-6 months in advance. 

[GaWx]

 

43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

9 day lead though.. I'd rather see what their forecasts looked like 3-6 months in advance. 

 Unfortunately, the best I’ve found archived is the 0.5 month lead like I posted.

 They did pretty well in Nov of 2015 for DJF 2015-6: I give them a B for the US as a whole

 
 

 

 -They did so-so in Nov 2016 for DJF 2016-7: my grade C for US overall

-NOAA did well in 11/2017 for DJF 2017-8: A

-They were absolutely awful in 11/2018 for 2018-9: F

-2019-20 mediocre at best: C

-2020-1 poor: D

-2021-2 pretty good: B

-2022-3 pretty good: B

-2023-4 very good: A

-2024-5 lousy: D

——————

Summary of my overall US grades of Nov NOAA probabilities for DJF temps:

2013-4: C

2014-5: B

2015-6: B

2016-7: C

2017-8: A

2018-9: F

2019-20: C

2020-1: D

2021-2: B

2022-3: B

2023-4: A

2024-5: D

 

Tally:

A: 2

B: 4

C: 3

D: 2

F: 1

 

NOAA GPA for 0.5 month lead of last 12 DJF for US as a whole: 2.3/C+ (not bad)

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seasonal models are never going to accurately depict any anomaly of that magnitude, though....and obviously all of the higher magnitude anomalies have been warm over the past decade, so that is going to cause a cold bias. Go back to the fall of 2014 and show me a seasonal that nailed that anomaly.....

I already gave the JMA credit for seeing the record TNH pattern for the 13-14 winter. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel pretty good about next season not being a complete blood bath is all I mean.

[roardog]

Quite Frankly, models suck with 2m temp anomalies in the medium range, never mind a seasonal forecast. It's pretty much useless to look at IMO. They are a little better with 850 temp anomalies but not much. It's best to just look at their 500mb anomaly forecasts and that will give you an idea on what temp anomalies would be if that particular map was to come to fruition.  

 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

Quite Frankly, models suck with 2m temp anomalies in the medium range, never mind a seasonal forecast. It's pretty much useless to look at IMO. They are a little better with 850 temp anomalies but not much. It's best to just look at their 500mb anomaly forecasts and that will give you an idea on what temp anomalies would be if that particular map was to come to fruition.  

 

 Maybe so, but keep in mind that H5 forecasts are sometimes pretty lousy, themselves.

[roardog]

Just now, GaWx said:

 Maybe so, but keep in mind that H5 forecasts are sometimes pretty lousy, themselves.

They are but what I'm saying is we often see H5 forecasts that don't make sense with 2m temp forecasts. You'll see a forecast in the medium range for a massive ridge over Alaska in January with a flow directly from the north pole into the northern plains and the 2m temp anomalies will show normal or barely below normal. This is where you look at that map and realize it would be frigid in that location if that actual H5 forecast verified. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

SOI is finally getting out of Weak-La Nina territory

6 Jul 2025

1011.51

1014.55

-24.56

 

TAO/Triton subsurface has warmed a lot.. +1c near the surface.. no more central-subsurface cold pool of any significance

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Any long range ensemble suite is going to have a smoothed mean....and I know most of the climate guidance is an average of a number of runs smoothed out. This is why you never see 2 feet of snowfall predicated from an ensemble mean at day 7....it doesn't mean it can't happen, nor does it mean that the data doesn't have value. I agree the trend is somewhat important.

I hadn't posted this, but meant to relating to the trend issue. Top pic is the Euro seasonal June temp forecast for OND and the bottom is July's forecast for same period. I know 2 months aren't a trend, but again, it's moving toward the Cansip with a non-furnace Canada into the Conus. Plus, AN areas aren't going wild.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Why OND?