2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like I have been saying, its not rocket science....we are right on track for a phase switch around the turn of the decade.....the last cold phase was from 1945-1977 and that's 32 years. 32 years from the onset of this current phase in 1998 is 2030. As you can see, there have always been ENSO triggered deviations from the predominate multi decadal baseline going back throughout history. Notice also that the last major el nino during a cold phase was 1972-1973, also several years before the flip during the nadir of the second wave of the cold phase....just like 2023-2023. Its not some evoloutionary concept...its simply warmer while the same shit happens.

I still say that the predominantly +3/2014-7/2016 during El Niño is similar to 6/1957-2/1959.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

I still say that the predominantly +3/2014-7/2016 during El Niño is similar to 6/1957-2/1959.

Exactly...I agree, but listen...maybe Chris is right...I am willing to wait and see and I will change my mind if we are still sporting a negtive PDO in 7-10 years. But I don't see why the default baseline should be some radical change to the global circulation and multidecadal patterns. The climate/meteorology community should remain open to that possibility as scientists, but it should not be assumed at this juncture given the info that I have just presented.

[40/70 Benchmark]

One thing I will say is that the 2015-2016 winter was much milder and less wintry overall, aside from the mid atl blizzard, then the 1957-1958 el nino....I am sure CC plays a role there maybe, but the former event was also simply stronger, too. Again, possibly due to CC.....that is reasonable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 1960s being much colder than the 2010s is definitely attributable to a combo of both CC and the AMO (- vs +).

[GaWx]

On 5/2/2025 at 7:10 PM, GaWx said:

Red hot off the press: The 30 mb QBO for April came out at +6.94, a solid drop from March’s +11.82. Based on past patterns, the QBO will likely fall to below 0 by June:

 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Red hot news bulletin (followup):

Not at all surprisingly based on past patterns, the 30 mb QBO dropped to negative in May (-4.59) from April’s +6.94:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Red hot news bulletin (followup):

Not at all surprisingly based on past patterns, the 30 mb QBO dropped to negative in May (-4.59):

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

You mean the QBO is oscillating back and forth from westerly to easterly...must be CC!! JK

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We had a G4 solar storm 2 days ago, and G3 the day before that. This Winter is going to be another good data point for high solar. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Red hot news bulletin (followup):

Not at all surprisingly based on past patterns, the 30 mb QBO dropped to negative in May (-4.59) from April’s +6.94:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

It looks like Apr to May this is the 3rd biggest move since 1948. The other two were trending negative to positive.. all 4 biggest moves since 2014. 

1. 2024

-23.42   -6.52 

2. 2015

-24.38  -12.33

3. 2025

6.94   -4.59

4. 2014

7.15   -2.81 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 6/3/2025 at 6:52 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I'm going to bet against a -NAO at this juncture, but will see once I do my polar domain research and you get your index calculation in.

That's the way I'm leaning too, but it wouldn't surprise me if the decadal started moving less positive

1st month in out of 4.. and the N. Atlantic SST index is slightly negative right now, Like -0.2

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's the way I'm leaning too, but it wouldn't surprise me if the decadal started moving less positive

1st month in out of 4.. and the N. Atlantic SST index is slightly negative right now, Like -0.2

I started pretty negatively last year, too, but the latter portion of the calculation swayed it...see what happens this year.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It looks like Apr to May this is the 3rd biggest move since 1948. The other two were trending negative to positive.. all 4 biggest moves since 2014. 

1. 2024

-23.42   -6.52 

2. 2015

-24.38  -12.33

3. 2025

6.94   -4.59

4. 2014

7.15   -2.81 

Good catch, the biggest April to May QBO drop on record! Based on the past, the odds are increased that it will dip to sub -20 by winter and possibly even by autumn. But not for certain, of course.

[FPizz]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we get well into the next decade still in a west Pac dominate -PDO, then its time to reconsider.

I found this going back a little further.  From 1854-1896, that phase seemed overall cool I would say even though the chart doesn't outline that.  So maybe this cool phase could last even longer?  Hope not though!

 

 

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

 

This is pretty cool link for pdo as well.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Good catch, the biggest April to May QBO drop on record! Based on the past, the odds are increased that it will dip to sub -20 by winter and possibly even by autumn. But not for certain, of course.

If we can see it start to dip into negative around 50mb this will be a good sign of an overall weaker SPV no guarantees of anything other than probably not the near record levels we just saw. A lot of things still need to come together over the next few months.

Still have yet to see a tropical system in the WPAC beat out last year but looking further into data it seems like the 8th of June is the latest for tropical storm and typhoon is the 21st.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, FPizz said:

I found this going back a little further.  From 1854-1896, that phase seemed overall cool I would say even though the chart doesn't outline that.  So maybe this cool phase could last even longer?  Hope not though!

 

 

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

 

This is pretty cool link for pdo as well.

Yea, usually the cool phases last a bit longer....it could spill into the next decade a bit...but it won't be as extreme....long term trend line will def. be lifting.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Asia and the Middle East are really hot for the next 1-2 weeks. Big +AO pattern. The AO positive in June will be the 4th straight +AO month, and some of these >+1 daily readings we have seen are amongst the highest lately. 

Surprisingly, it doesn't roll forward to anything significant for the Winter. 

[raindancewx]

The Spring globally had at least a passing resemblance globally to 2022. That's consistent with my idea of a pretty wet Summer in the deserts of North America (MX/SW US). The big highs from Japan due east and off the SE US, with low pressure Aleutians to North Dakota are similar. Southern Hemisphere and Asian Plateau setups are pretty different but those aren't super important for us in the Summer in the US. MJO has a passing similarity for late May in 2022 v. 2025 in terms of the wind anomalies by the tropics at about a 1-2 week difference for timing (green on the images for 15N-15S)

[40/70 Benchmark]

2022...great, said no one east of the Mississippi except for @snowman19....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Although, I think 2022-2023 with a bit less extreme troughing out west would have been pretty good...I doubt the RNA would be that extreme again. December and March would have been much better, at least for my area, with even a predestrian RNA pattern.

[raindancewx]

MJO looks like it is 1/2 to 2/3 magnitude of this time of year in 2022, and off by about 8-12 days for timing. So it's not perfect. It's not like the years have been super different and just snapped into place. Jan 2022 and Jan 2025 both finished super cold, even though the cold entered the US from slightly different origins, and again the timing is off.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

MAM 2025 ONI (NOAA): -0.1

MAM 2025 RONI: -0.53

May 2025 PDO: -1.71

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we get well into the next decade still in a west Pac dominate -PDO, then its time to reconsider.

While these climate models forecasts through NDJFM 2030 could just be repeating the 2025 initialization, the winter forecast is still in -PDO mode.

It could also be related to the western ocean basins warming fastest to the east of Japan and New England with mean ridges in those positions.

I am just putting this forecast out there since it was recently issued. But don’t have any info on how reliable it is or whether the next run will show some type shift later in the 2020s.

There is also that cool spot south of Greenland and Iceland which could be related to the more +NAO winters we have seen continuing. 

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While these climate models forecasts through NDJFM 2030 could just be repeating the 2025 initialization, the winter forecast is still in -PDO mode.

It could also be related to the western ocean basins warming fastest to the east of Japan and New England with mean ridges in those positions.

I am just putting this forecast out there since it was recently issued. But don’t have any info on how reliable it is or whether the next run will show some type shift later in the 2020s.

There is also that cool spot south of Greenland and Iceland which could be related to the more +NAO winters we have seen continuing. 

https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/

 

 

Yea, this doesn't suprise me. No reason to bet against that for the balance of the decade, with perhaps some better luck and a mismatch season or two thrown in.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this doesn't suprise me. No reason to bet against that for the balance of the decade, with perhaps some better luck and a mismatch season or two thrown in.

This one long range climate model initialized in 2013 did a great job forecasting the +PDO shift in 2014 that lasted through 2018. So we always have to evaluate on a case by case basis. Plus it’s tough to know when the model is just in repeater mode or actually seeing a shift until we see the verification.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms11718

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. A proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Niño3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015–2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013–2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This one long range climate model initialized in 2013 did a great job forecasting the +PDO shift in 2014 that lasted through 2018.

It did not last through 2018. The +PDO was done in by the 2nd half of 2016 (July 2016 PDO +0.57, August 2016 PDO -0.63). It came to an end pretty much at the same time as super el nino. From about late 2016 until 2019, we were in a period of 0 PDO, before we went negative for good in early 2020.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It did not last through 2018. The +PDO was done in by the 2nd half of 2016 (July 2016 PDO +0.57, August 2016 PDO -0.63). It came to an end pretty much at the same time as super el nino. From about late 2016 until 2019, we were in a period of 0 PDO, before we went negative for good in early 2020.

We were still a very solid +PDO SST signature through the winter of 16-17. Just look at that big cold pool south of the Aleutians and warm crescent along the West Coast.

Then in 17-18 you could see the beginning of a shift with lingering warm pool near the Baja and cold pool still north of Hawaii. Still plenty of warmth up in the Bering Sea for a weaker +PDO  than 16-17.

But this is when the first hint of warming began to the east of Japan. Though not to the point of being overpowering yet which began in 18-19 flipping the PDO negative and preventing the El Niño from coupling in 18-19 and 19-20.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2014 is in a class of its own for QBO matches right now......its also a pretty damn good match for solar, too....so more reason to be skeptical of much arctic blocking. We are probably going to need to get it done on the Pacific side, which is what the CANSIPS does. That is also consistent with my very early idea, but extremely low confidence obviously.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am not at all implying 2014 is a good Pacific match....all I am saying is that I don't think it will be a bad arctic analog...that said, I won't be suprised if get a decent look around AK next season, just not to the extent of 2014.

[LibertyBell]

On 6/4/2025 at 8:14 AM, bluewave said:

My guess is that the duration of this current -PDO interval, which emerged around 18-19, will linger as long as the WPAC stays this warm. May had multiple areas near and west of the Dateline ranking near the warmest on record.

We probably would have continued the +PDO which emerged around 13-14 right into the 2020s if it wasn’t for that rapid increase in WPAC 500mb heights which warmed the WPAC leading to the -PDO. 

Hopefully, the changes in the WPAC at 500mb and the surface don’t permanently load the dice for more -PDOs with only intermittent +PDOs.

In the old days, the -PDO  defined more by the cold pool off the West Coast. Now, the warm pool and 2nd EOF of the PDO in the WPAC are running the show. It would be nice to get monthly real time 2nd EOF updates. But the the ranking charts below can be used in place of the formal 2nd EOF numbers.

 

2019 to 2025 -PDO

 

2014 to 2018 +PDO

 

why is the western pacific running the show and why isn't the eastern pacific warming as quickly?

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Asia and the Middle East are really hot for the next 1-2 weeks. Big +AO pattern. The AO positive in June will be the 4th straight +AO month, and some of these >+1 daily readings we have seen are amongst the highest lately. 

Surprisingly, it doesn't roll forward to anything significant for the Winter. 

anyone getting close to 130 degrees out there lol?

[LibertyBell]

On 6/4/2025 at 10:42 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like I have been saying, its not rocket science....we are right on track for a phase switch around the turn of the decade.....the last cold phase was from 1945-1977 and that's 32 years. 32 years from the onset of this current phase in 1998 is 2030. As you can see, there have always been ENSO triggered deviations from the predominate multi decadal baseline going back throughout history. Notice also that the last major el nino during a cold phase was 1972-1973, also several years before the flip during the nadir of the second wave of the cold phase....just like 2023-2023. Its not some evoloutionary concept...its simply warmer while the same shit happens.

Yes I remember you referenced the early 1970s a couple of winters ago as the type of pattern to look for and not coincidentally we had a streak of bad winters then too.