2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[yoda]

8 hours ago, high risk said:

Oh, what the hell!    Let's fire up the SVR thread for perhaps its last hurrah of 2025.  MRGL for tomorrow - the shear/instability combo isn't great, but I could see a few decent wind gusts.   Will be very happy with thunder and heavy rain.   The CAMs today mostly favored DC and points south, but the HRRR has kicked off the evening suite by favoring generally north of DC.

3 straight days of MRGL per SPC... today through Thursday 

[yoda]

Chance of maybe an isolated spinner today?  Morning AFD from LWX 

The first wave of showers and thunderstorms look to exit mid to late
morning allowing the atmosphere to reload for the afternoon and
evening ahead. Some uncertainty remains into how much clearing that
we do see given the morning activity and incumbent trough/surface
cold front nearby. Even with that said, the added lifting mechanism
of the trough/front and leading shortwave energy should aid in
higher convective chances this afternoon. The Storm Prediction
Center has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather
today east of the Allegheny Mountains. The main threat is damaging
winds and heavy rainfall with a secondary threat of an isolated
tornado. CAPE values look to sit between 1000-2000 j/kg with deep
layer shear around 40 to 50 kts. This should lead to some
organization if storms are to materialize (i.e line segments or even
a supercell or two). The NAM3km/NSSL/ARW remain the aggressors when
it comes to curved hodographs with 0-1 SRH values up around 200-250
m2/s2. The RAP/HRRR show less values and less of a curved signature.
With that said, the tornado threat would remain isolated (i.e via
supercell or most likely in a QLCS type of scenario) with a focus
east of US-15. Greatest concern for severe weather if it were to
occur would be between 4-8pm as the front crosses. Once again the
threat will be highly dependent upon cloud cover and how quickly
things can reload after this morning`s rainfall. Afternoon high`s
will reach into the upper 70s and low 80s (upper 60s and low 70s
mountains).