yoda Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 15z HRRR For 20z-22z... MD gets clipped, but DC/N VA and south get smacked by the overnight MCS at the end of the run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 16 Author Share Posted May 16 It's definitely fueled up out there. Would be a good day for a special 18z sounding... Sitting at 84 degrees and dew of 74ish but I think it's running a bit high. It's been bouncing between 72 and 75 on my PWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 83/72 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It's definitely fueled up out there. Would be a good day for a special 18z sounding... Sitting at 84 degrees and dew of 74ish but I think it's running a bit high. It's been bouncing between 72 and 75 on my PWS. I asked them (LWX) on Twitter aka X... will let you know what they say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Weak boundary pushing south through @mappyland and firing storms behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 16 Author Share Posted May 16 1 minute ago, yoda said: I asked them (LWX) on Twitter aka X... will let you know what they say My gut feeling says no with so many funding cuts. But we are the DC area...so who knows. Just now, WxUSAF said: Weak boundary pushing south through @mappyland and firing storms behind it The more boundaries the merrier! Shows clear as day on LWX coming south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 16 Author Share Posted May 16 No changes for our area on the 1630z SPC D1 outlook. I guess SPC still has big questions about initiation and coverage. The subsequent HRRR runs will be interesting to see if they keep that trend of convecting in that afternoon timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Tornado debris ball signature way out in Deleware 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 16 Author Share Posted May 16 Clouds are moving in from the west. That could be a wrinkle to things...or it could provide a focus for activity perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 32 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: No changes for our area on the 1630z SPC D1 outlook. I guess SPC still has big questions about initiation and coverage. The subsequent HRRR runs will be interesting to see if they keep that trend of convecting in that afternoon timeframe. 16z HRRR continues with it's 20z/21z idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Tornado debris ball signature way out in Deleware Did you mean New Jersey? no TOR's issued for Delaware yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Did you mean New Jersey? no TOR's issued for Delaware yet I pulled up radarscope when I saw that note and there was a strange correlation coefficient readout between denton and bridgeville on 404. Maybe this is what he saw? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Did you mean New Jersey? no TOR's issued for Delaware yet 1 minute ago, toolsheds said: I pulled up radarscope when I saw that note and there was a strange correlation coefficient readout between denton and bridgeville on 404. Maybe this is what he saw? Oops, basically the same state imo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Just now, toolsheds said: I pulled up radarscope when I saw that note and there was a strange correlation coefficient readout between denton and bridgeville on 404. Maybe this is what he saw? perhaps. Also of note, KDOX radar appears to be back online, not a moment too soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Oops, basically the same state imo them's fighting words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 not a single breeze here! the tree leaves are dead calm. dews in the 70s. clearing out ahead of that line in NE MD here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 MCD up for basically I66 and points north in LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 16 Author Share Posted May 16 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: MCD up for basically I66 and points north in LWX I thought they might go higher on the hail in that MCD. Still seems like they are a bit uncertain about the ultimate outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 TOR for sussex county, DE. this storm went kidney shaped as soon as it fired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 52 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: perhaps. Also of note, KDOX radar appears to be back online, not a moment too soon. I guess they found a motor from another supplier lol. The initial 3 week eta was insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 16 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: TOR for sussex county, DE. this storm went kidney shaped as soon as it fired Looks more impressive now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Just now, CAPE said: Looks more impressive now. its also shifted right. heading for millsboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Just now, AlexD1990 said: its also shifted right. heading for millsboro Go chase it. Looks like the cell just to the NE of that one is pretty close to your neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 outflow boundary from storms near smyrna moving through dover. i can see the millsboro cell from here. plenty of cumulus clouds just need an initiator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Go chase it. Looks like the cell just to the NE of that one is pretty close to your neck of the woods. I'm at work in Rehoboth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Go chase it. Looks like the cell just to the NE of that one is pretty close to your neck of the woods. I'm just off rt24 my house is between them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 That Parkton boundary has settled over the I-795 corridor and is rather evident on the mesonet data. Westminster and Clarksville have west/southwest winds, but the Parkton and Baltimore City sites have a easterly component. Might fire something up there later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Watch issued for your guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 Severe Thunderstorm Watch just came out on weather radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 3 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Watch issued for your guys Yeah after reading the meso discussion it seemed pretty likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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