February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Currier and Ives paying a visit to my office this A.M. fat flakes

The streamer coming into western mass?

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The streamer coming into western mass?

I'm in Simsbury right now, haven't looked at radar EDIT yeah that must be it

[Go Kart Mozart]

Is a 952 low 75 miles east of ACY of any interest to anyone here?

 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is a 952 low 75 miles east of ACY of any interest to anyone here?

 

Lbsw 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is a 952 low 75 miles east of ACY of any interest to anyone here?

 

I actually wouldn't care for a solution that deep at such a low latitude....LBSW interest anyone?

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Lbsw 

BINGO.

Unless your telling me we are going to have a 1/100 year jet intensity like the Super Storm, that caps things up here at around a foot...give or take.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I guess others can get their rocks off too low baro....just give me a low that drops 25mb in 12 hours about 100mi south of LI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

24 hour Kuchie. Always room to adjust upwards if needed.

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess others can get their rocks off with low baro....just give me a low that drops 25mb in 12 hours about 100mi south of LI.

I'm guessing the GFS does that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think I'd literally sacrafice a nut to verify the GFS.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I'd literally sacrafice a nut to verify the GFS.

With 4 kids do you really need both?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I'm guessing the GFS does that.

Close...19mb.

[mahk_webstah]

7 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Upwards from the 33" I have in that frame?...

Doubt.

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

Is the storm over by then?  This thing is speeding up

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

With 4 kids do you really need both?

Not at this point, no.

[CoastalWx]

46 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’ve noticed that the AIFS can be just as wrong as other models but its shifts are just less violent

for example, it can still move 100-200 miles in a few days, it’ll just do it in small, consistent increments rather than two big jumps 

Yep agree 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Skynet still whiffs

So does the EURO AI FWIW

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just looks like 06z isn't quite as proficient as a phase, but if that is the level of variance we are seeing at this range, that is about as glaring a signal as one could expect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

So does the EURO AI FWIW

Of course that's the one post you make in this thread.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course that's the one post you make in this thread.

Don’t worry I’m sure it’s going to cave. But in fairness, everyone has absolutely been in love with that model up until this point lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t worry I’m sure it’s going to cave. But in fairness, everyone has absolutely been in love with that model up until this point lol

I think its always been high confidence that there will be a large storm near the east coast, but I'm still leery of how exactly it unfolds....so no, still not entirely sold on a big hit.

[Chrisrotary12]

Not sure if I dreamt it since it’s calm now, but there was a gust this morning that made me sit up in bed from a dead sleep. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 00z EURO is precisely the type of evolution I'm afraid of, and would fit that narrative of this season like a glove.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think its always been high confidence that there will be a large storm near the east coast, but I'm still leery of how exactly it unfolds....so no, still not entirely sold on a big hit.

IMO the risk with next week has always been OTS. The cutter talk by some was ridiculous, next week’s pattern in no way, shape or form ever supported a cutter or runner. This is either a big hit or OTS 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the risk with next week has always been OTS. The cutter talk by some was ridiculous, next week’s pattern in no way, shape or form ever supported a cutter or runner. This is either a big hit or OTS 

00z EPS is a modest improvement over 12z.

[kdxken]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I'd literally sacrafice a nut to verify the GFS.

Can't have many left you did it last year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Extrapolating, I think the 06z EPS would be a bit of a step back.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEFS and EPS both have increasing spread back to the west, with kind of an inverted trough eppendage like feature, so there must be at least a couple of larger hits showing up.

[512high]

16 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Not sure if I dreamt it since it’s calm now, but there was a gust this morning that made me sit up in bed from a dead sleep. 

515am it was gusty...FWIW

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t worry I’m sure it’s going to cave. But in fairness, everyone has absolutely been in love with that model up until this point lol

It’s been very erratic outside 5 days…

 

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s been very erratic outside 5 days…

 

 

I mean to me it’s just another model. I haven’t noticed at least in this area how it’s done. I feel like lately. It’s been too cold and a little too far offshore with these systems.

[CoastalWx]

I’m sure the PhDs are whacking off to 500mb scores though.