mitchnick Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: This colder/active stretch looks much more like a nino than nina in the northern hemisphere. I talked about this in the fall. I never thought this winter would behave like a typical nina. Nino hangover no doubt has its hand in the cookie jar. One of the reasons I was a little bullish early on. I had some good guesses this fall so far but they were just experienced based intuition guesses. I get that stuff wrong plenty but my confidence was high this year for reasons I can't really explain even to myself lol Does it continue? Idk. Guy says nino hangover look will break down and not come back. We're getting pretty far into winter now. If things stay colder/active they, I don't think it will look the same. Prob getting ahead of myself but intuition is telling me that a more zonal/boundary type regime will be the next money maker if there is one. Less amplified pna and hints of a SE ridge. Blocking can flatten the ridge and create zonal flow with cold fighting warm. If that happens the gulf will be involved by default. Just throwing ideas around. I cannot predict the long range future any better than mets, models,and longtimers here. Much uncertainty lies ahead Mjo has become stronger and is progged to stay in Phase 1 longer. Odd for a Niña and much more common in a Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You may not have seen my other post to Bob that I do believe, after any "thaw", a return of winter end of February in early March. Could be wrong, but who cares. And modeling may change, since my thoughts are based on current modeling. But our best pattern should be this month into early February, so that's the real reason for my hope to score soon and often now, redundantly speaking notwithstanding! Lol Oh I definitely agree, but up here I will say often we pull off a win in an "ok" pattern more so than the lowlands in this sub, that's where we can get a win. There are plenty of examples where my snowiest week of the winter came during a blah pattern up here after disappointing results from a much better one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 Just now, psuhoffman said: Oh I definitely agree, but up here I will say often we pull off a win in an "ok" pattern more so than the lowlands in this sub, that's where we can get a win. There are plenty of examples where my snowiest week of the winter came during a blah pattern up here after disappointing results from a much better one. I wouldn't mind a 5-6 week stretch like what happened in 14 or kinda what happened in 15. Hitting with those borderline events which our areas maximize potential on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 1 hour ago, Amped said: The 500mb troff collapses, so the precip does too. A subtle but seemingly critical difference between the Euro and GFS has to do with timing/degree of interaction with NS shortwave energy(of course) digging southward that's associated with the vorticity lobe south of Hudson. GFS phases some of that energy sooner and acts to pick up the southern low, placing it closer to the coast. Euro is lesser/later with the interaction, so that energy acts so suppress/kick the low offshore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 In case you didn't see it, 6z Gefs was on board for a moderate event at least. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010700&fh=138&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 It’s really wild to think about how well forecasted 1993 was ahead of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 GFS so far remains largely unchanged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 You can all keep your frost bitten snowy mid Atlantic hands off our central NC snowstorm this weekend please! Now go back to shoveling your driveways and sledding 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 It's just setting our expectations...or resetting them at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 1 minute ago, konksw said: It’s really wild to think about how well forecasted 1993 was ahead of time. Triple phase storms show up at long leads because (usually) there is a phase no matter what. Big dogs have special ingredients. They aren't subtle. 93 tripled and became a record breaking beast but a large strong storm was already a near guaranty well in advance. Its been a long time since the last triple....maybe we're due... heh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 GFS just continues to be farther off synch so far. H5 look degraded a bit vs 6z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 Phasing looks very sloppy this run compared to some of the prior runs (thru 60). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS just continues to be farther off synch so far. H5 look degraded a bit vs 6z so far Northern stream looks a bit better, southern stuff just didn't come to play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 Just now, yoda said: Northern stream looks a bit better, southern stuff just didn't come to play We could win on a moderate event this way if we are all setting expectations on a 3-5'er. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 Just now, yoda said: Northern stream looks a bit better, southern stuff just didn't come to play That's what I thought the Nam was smoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 Ok, gotta just mainly look at SFC...gulf low is obviously still there. Let's see what, if anything, we can get out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 Well, whatever we do get out of the gulf is headed toward some nice cold air. Friday AM temps: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 looks juicier at 75..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 Just now, Shad said: looks juicier at 75..... It's also more south with the low and h5 more strung out with a sloppier connection of streams. I'll hold judgement but don't love it thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 15 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said: I totally agree! It is just funny that we trumpet our ability to create technology (especially AI) but are unable to get a better handling on weather in the short / medium ranges. If that went away, what would us as weather hobbyists do with our time? Look at actual verification scores, we have improved significantly. Day 5 scores are similar to day 3 from 20 years ago! Peoples expectations just continue to increase faster than science in this area. But it wasn't all that long ago that forecasts only went to day 5 (remember TWC 5 day business planner) and day 5 was unicorn fantasy land. Now we look out to day 10 in the same way but expect better results. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 Precip actually angled a hair better vs 6z, but still don't expect any significant changes wrt out amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 Just now, stormtracker said: Precip actually angled a hair better vs 6z, but still don't expect any significant changes wrt out amounts SS getting held back/left behind a bit makes it hard to gain much neutral tilt to get that orientation to climb the way we want it. Maybe it'll pull it off anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 snowing lightly at 7am Sat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Look at actual verification scores, we have improved significantly. Day 5 scores are similar to day 3 from 20 years ago! Peoples expectations just continue to increase faster than science in this area. But it wasn't all that long ago that forecasts only went to day 5 (remember TWC 5 day business planner) and day 5 was unicorn fantasy land. Now we look out to day 10 in the same way but expect better results. Fair point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 moderate just to the south over northern neck. I think that's the brick wall rn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 well hold a minute...moderate makes it up to DC. Like literally I-95 marks the northern extent of moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look at actual verification scores, we have improved significantly. Day 5 scores are similar to day 3 from 20 years ago! Peoples expectations just continue to increase faster than science in this area. But it wasn't all that long ago that forecasts only went to day 5 (remember TWC 5 day business planner) and day 5 was unicorn fantasy land. Now we look out to day 10 in the same way but expect better results. You’re still going to hit hard limits with chaos theory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 This might actually get us to what we want...3-5 fer.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 Just now, stormtracker said: This might actually get us to what we want...3-5 fer.. 96 is decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2025 Share Posted January 7, 2025 @CAPE loves 99 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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