Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BooneWX]

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[buckeyefan1]

48 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

There are some positive changes but its far from a slam dunk. The EPS is still not quite cold enough for most for the 4th-7th. The Op GFS looks terrible. The GEFS isnt there yet either. 

 

Agreed my friend   Just keep in mind that with blocking, anything is possible

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[strongwxnc]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

If this all comes to fruition because of the pacific jet extending just enough but not overextending and pumping our southern shortwaves, it’s going to be a thing of beauty. We seemingly never have any component of the Pacific working for us and we may be staring down the barrel of an Aleutian Low, near ridge bridge on the west coast and impulses into the subtropical jet with blocking to boot. BUCKLE THE HECK UP. Get that coffee ready for those 1 am euro runs. 
 

LETS FREAKING GO

OK Bet!

[Upstate Tiger]

A little happy hour cocktail

[wncsnow]

Just to temper things a little. I like middle month but maybe we can get a light event the first 10 days of January. 

[Daniel Boone]

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Just to temper things a little. I like middle month but maybe we can get a light event the first 10 days of January. 

Looks to me they're hugging one Model . Look at overnight Ensemble Runs and you can guess which. May or may not be right. Today's Data appears to of maybe flattened that Southern Plains Ridge then. 

[BooneWX]

The southern jet is getting active on just about every model. I think we’re going to start seeing some fantasy storms that break the forum here shortly. 

[ncjoaquin]

26 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The southern jet is getting active on just about every model. I think we’re going to start seeing some fantasy storms that break the forum here shortly. 

I will take this one.

[NorthHillsWx]

Surprised it’s not more active in here. Good overnight trends for January. 

[cbmclean]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Surprised it’s not more active in here. Good overnight trends for January. 

I like some of the trends for later in Jan on the "weeklies", but the low heights currently progged for AK on the EPS leave me unenthused for the first 10 days or so.

[BooneWX]

JAMMIN JANUARY IS COMING 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

I like some of the trends for later in Jan on the "weeklies", but the low heights currently progged for AK on the EPS leave me unenthused for the first 10 days or so.

You're not wrong, that does hurt as it cuts off CPF into Canada. However, with enough cold in Canada with the other features in place at 500mb you can still score . Blocking is how you overcome not great features on the Pacific side. Ultimately those features usually erode or shift away if Blocking overwhelms. 

[BooneWX]

I think the target remains Jan 10-Jan 30 roughly, but I don’t see a reason we can’t be mildly excited about the first 10 days. I’ve certainly seen us score with worse looks. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

January 

[BooneWX]

Hope nobody minds but it’s time to usher in Jammin Jan with a new thread 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[GaWx]

On 11/16/2025 at 9:35 AM, GaWx said:

 I just looked up -ENSO winters with a -PNA in Dec to see how often it went to a +PNA in Jan. In what winters did this occur?

-1954-5: -0.52 to +0.40

-1962-3: -0.08 to +0.58

-1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97

-1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63

-1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63

-1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16

-2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61

-2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29

-2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55

-2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97

-2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28

-2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01

-2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22

 So, although it wasn’t common from 1954-5 through 1971-2, when only 2 of 9 (22%) switched, here’s something that just blew my mind:

-ALL 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 switched to +PNA Jans (listed above)!

-These 11 averaged +0.76 in January!

-Now, check out the -ENSO Jan PNAs since 1983-4 that had a +PNA in Dec:

1) 1985-6 went from +1.39 to +0.97

2) 1988-9 went from +0.63 to -0.72

3) 1995-6 went from +0.92 to -0.02

4) 1999-00 went from +0.21 to -0.82

5) 2000-01 went from +1.23 to +1.51

6) 2001-2 went from +0.56 to -0.04

7) 2005-6 went from +1.38 to -0.43

8) 2007-8 went from +0.14 to -0.32

9) 2011-2 went from +0.36 to +0.60

10) 2017-8 went from +0.89 to +0.40

11) 2020-1 went from +1.58 to +0.19

12) 2024-5 went from +1.70 to +1.05

 -So, for these 12 -ENSO Decs since 1983-4 with a +PNA, only 50% also had a +PNA in Jan.

-So, since 1983-4, whereas only 50% of the 12 -ENSO Decs with a +PNA also had a Jan +PNA, 100% of the 11 -ENSO Decs with a -PNA in Dec went to a +PNA in Jan! Thus, having a -PNA in Dec during -ENSO since 1983-4 has, if anything, meant a big increase in the chance for a +PNA in Jan whether random or not! I didn’t know this til just now.

Link to monthly PNAs back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 I’m bumping this 11/16/25 post.
 
 So, following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table