Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[Met1985]

Im calling it. Winter is dead December the 19th.

[acc fan]

I have just rearranged my closest back to summer attire since winter is canceled. 

[wncsnow]

The last major winter storm in February or later during a weak to moderate La Nina was March 1 2008 with exactly what Eric Webb said- A bowling ball cut off upper low. There have been 7 weak to moderate La Ninas since then, none of them had major winter storms after January, 

[BooneWX]

4 hours ago, wncsnow said:

I think the best question right now is, what can get the Pacific to calm down? As shown in the chart above, the PNA will be more strongly negative than the NAO and should win that contest as the main pattern driver. There looks to be a transient cooldown in late December but as of now, it wont last more than a few days. 

East Asia Mountain Torque event but she ain’t torquing right now 

[GaWx]

The 12Z GFS has 6 days of the rest of Dec having a high of 70+ at KATL (12/24-29): 70, 73, 72, 70, 71, and 73. Granted, 2 of the 6 days on this barely make 70. So, getting 6 won’t be easy. Many models including earlier GFS runs don’t have 70+ on 12/29 with the 5 of 12/24-28 more common for the most.

 That being said, IF it were to actually occur, 6 days of 70+ at KATL within 12/20+ would obviously be a very impressive anomaly! How rare would that actually be? Extremely! It’s only occurred three times since 1878:

-2021 (warmest 75)
-2015 (warmest 77)
-1984 (warmest 74)

 Needless to say, this will be very interesting to follow!

[olafminesaw]

I think there may be a little more hope for February this year with a fading Nina (possibly neutral by then)

[wncsnow]

just gonna enjoy the old school weather local forecast Christmas music and reminisce back to when it did snow

 

 

[BooneWX]

Pain. 

[GaWx]

Todays Euro Weeklies are looking better/pretty good for 1/12-2/1. See the main ENSO thread for maps/more details if interested.

 

[JoshM]

7 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Pain. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

It’s bad y’all but it’s good that’s it’s happening now than say 3-4 weeks from now. It will get better soon. Gonna have to wait about a week or two.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

6 hours ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

It’s bad y’all but it’s good that’s it’s happening now than say 3-4 weeks from now. It will get better soon. Gonna have to wait about a week or two.


.

The fact we avoided this last winter is impressive 

[BooneWX]

A shred of optimism can be found in the overnight modeling but we’ve seen this quite a bit over the past week. I need more than a flash in the pan at 300+ hrs. 

[Met1985]

Some of yall on here actually like we just didn't go through an impressive 3 week cold and some snow stretch.  It's comical and im laughing.  All you can do. What's the saying.  This is the only weather you've got so enjoy it. Something like that. 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Some of yall on here actually like we just didn't go through an impressive 3 week cold and some snow stretch.  It's comical and im laughing.  All you can do. What's the saying.  This is the only weather you've got so enjoy it. Something like that. 

I loved the 3 week cold stretch! I’m still enjoying the cool/dry of yesterday and this weekend. Great for walking! Was down to mid 30s this AM. The impressive torch is progged to be most concentrated during 12/23-8 (and much of that period will still be pleasant with pretty low dewpoints) and with any later torchy days up in the air since good model skill doesn’t go out that far.

 Despite the warmup Charlotte will still likely end up NN for Dec. ATL likely slightly AN. RDU/GSO likely slightly BN.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

One thing I’ll say about the upcoming torch is that all will be forgotten and forgiven when there’s a band of 6-10” from ATL to Va beach and everywhere in between in mid January followed by single digits and then snow showers the next day

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Nationally, the hottest Christmas in modern history 

[BornAgain13]

12z AIGFS has a Big Snowstorm for NC/VA Day 10&11 fwiw. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Nationally, the hottest Christmas in modern history 

 It will be historically warm but 2021 was close.

 

[BornAgain13]

7 AM New Years Eve

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

7 AM New Years Eve

Been so long since I’ve seen a southern bowling ball

[BornAgain13]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Been so long since I’ve seen a southern bowling ball

I know right! We can dream!

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I know right! We can dream!

Some of our best scores have come in shit patterns 

[BooneWX]

3 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Some of yall on here actually like we just didn't go through an impressive 3 week cold and some snow stretch.  It's comical and im laughing.  All you can do. What's the saying.  This is the only weather you've got so enjoy it. Something like that. 

I’m thankful and glad we had the 3 week stretch we did, it was great. But I think it’s perfectly normal to be a tad annoyed we’re headed into prime climo on a warm streak. You’re right though, it is what it is and it can’t be changed. I’m a big 4 seasons guy. I get salty less about the snow part and more of the me having to break out the shorts Christmas morning 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m thankful and glad we had the 3 week stretch we did, it was great. But I think it’s perfectly normal to be a tad annoyed we’re headed into prime climo on a warm streak. You’re right though, it is what it is and it can’t be changed. I’m a big 4 seasons guy. I get salty less about the snow part and more of the me having to break out the shorts Christmas morning 

The good news is that highest on any 12Z model for Christmas in your area is only 65-68 and some are cooler. These are quite a bit lower than the 74ish record highs. ATL, otoh, may be pretty close to its 75 record.

[BooneWX]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The good news is that highest on any 12Z model for Christmas in your area is only 65-68 and some are cooler. These are quite a bit lower than the 74ish record highs. ATL, otoh, may be pretty close to its 75 record.

65-68 will be nice for the kids to get outside and play with their gifts. I’m looking forward to some hiking and fishing these next 10 days. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Spidyr2k]

54 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

65-68 will be nice for the kids to get outside and play with their gifts. I’m looking forward to some hiking and fishing these next 10 days. 

One Christmas eve, I was 10 or 11yo, it snowed in Tarboro a few inches.  I got my first real sled the next morning.  And that was when I used whatever good karma I had.  It snowed a few more times that winter and that sled had some dents by spring.  Grateful for the memories.  Hope the kids get some snow this year.

[WinstonSalemArlington]