Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[Met1985]

Im calling it. Winter is dead December the 19th.

[acc fan]

I have just rearranged my closest back to summer attire since winter is canceled. 

[wncsnow]

The last major winter storm in February or later during a weak to moderate La Nina was March 1 2008 with exactly what Eric Webb said- A bowling ball cut off upper low. There have been 7 weak to moderate La Ninas since then, none of them had major winter storms after January, 

[BooneWX]

4 hours ago, wncsnow said:

I think the best question right now is, what can get the Pacific to calm down? As shown in the chart above, the PNA will be more strongly negative than the NAO and should win that contest as the main pattern driver. There looks to be a transient cooldown in late December but as of now, it wont last more than a few days. 

East Asia Mountain Torque event but she ain’t torquing right now 

[GaWx]

The 12Z GFS has 6 days of the rest of Dec having a high of 70+ at KATL (12/24-29): 70, 73, 72, 70, 71, and 73. Granted, 2 of the 6 days on this barely make 70. So, getting 6 won’t be easy. Many models including earlier GFS runs don’t have 70+ on 12/29 with the 5 of 12/24-28 more common for the most.

 That being said, IF it were to actually occur, 6 days of 70+ at KATL within 12/20+ would obviously be a very impressive anomaly! How rare would that actually be? Extremely! It’s only occurred three times since 1878:

-2021 (warmest 75)
-2015 (warmest 77)
-1984 (warmest 74)

 Needless to say, this will be very interesting to follow!