2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: again has a followup MDR TC to Invest 92L (0Z actually had 2 followups):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 37.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2025 156 15.9N 37.2W 1012 31
1200UTC 22.09.2025 168 16.7N 39.4W 1011 32

[LibertyBell]

On 9/13/2025 at 1:27 PM, GaWx said:

Storm Number	Storm Name	Typea	Datesb  (UTC)	Max.  Winds  (kt)	Min.  Pressure  (mb)	Accumulated  Cyclone  Energyc  (x104 kt2)	Direct  Deathsd	U.S.  Damagee ($million)	Tropical  Cyclone  Report  Status
1	Alberto	TS	19 Jun–20 Jun	45	992	0.8	2	125	Final
2	Beryl	MH	28 Jun–09 Jul	145	932	34.5	35	7,200	Final
3	Chris	TS	30 Jun–01 Jul	40	1005	0.1	5	0	Final
4	Debby	HU	03 Aug–08 Aug	70	979	4.9	12	2,500	Final
5	Ernesto	HU	12 Aug–20 Aug	85	967	14.4	3	0	Final
6	Francine	HU	09 Sep–12 Sep	90	972	4.8	0	1,300	Final
7	Gordon	TS	11 Sep–17 Sep	40	1004	1.3	0	0	Final
8	Eight	PTC	15 Sep–17 Sep	50	1004	0.0			Final
9	Helene	MH	24 Sep–27 Sep	120	939	7.0	176	78,700	Final
10	Isaac	HU	25 Sep–30 Sep	90	963	7.9	0	0	Final
11	Joyce	TS	27 Sep–30 Sep	45	1001	1.7	0	0	Final
12	Kirk	MH	29 Sep–07 Oct	130	928	23.7	0	0	Final
13	Leslie	HU	02 Oct–12 Oct	90	970	16.1	0	0	Final
14	Milton	MH	05 Oct–10 Oct	155	895	22.5	15	34,300	Final
15	Nadine	TS	19 Oct–20 Oct	50	1002	0.7	7	0	Final
16	Oscar	HU	19 Oct–22 Oct	75	984	4.5	8	0	Final
17	Patty	TS	01 Nov–04 Nov	55	982	2.3	0	0	Final
18	Rafael	MH	04 Nov–10 Nov	105	954	12.3	2	0	Final
19	Sara	TS	14 Nov–18 Nov	45	997	2.0	9	0	Final

 Yep, very active JJ, BN AS, very active ON.

There's that big gap I remember between July 9 and August 3 and again between August 20 and September 9.

August was crickets lol

 

[WxWatcher007]

I don't want to get too ahead of my skis, but the EPS and GEFS have been gradually showing the basin opening back up between 92L, the wave behind it, and perhaps some subtropical/tropical development in the homebrew region. 

[Coach McGuirk]

I'm surprised this coastal low off NC coast isn't going tropical. 

[WolfStock1]

7 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

I'm surprised this coastal low off NC coast isn't going tropical. 

This is showing winds of 66 kph - so it's fast enough.

[GaWx]

 

3 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:

This is showing winds of 66 kph - so it's fast enough.

Bastardi is livid that this hasn’t been named:

 

[Cat Lady]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

Bastardi is livid that this hasn’t been named:

 

It seems odd to not name it, especially given its proximity to land.  This meets the Tropical designation criteria right?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Cat Lady said:

It seems odd to not name it, especially given its proximity to land.  This meets the Tropical designation criteria right?

 I’m not sure as it’s somewhat subjective. I’m thinking more about subtropical than tropical. But the NHC never even had it at a 10% chance to transition to subtropical or tropical in any TWO, which is what really made JB mad initially.

[Cat Lady]

Looking at the local NWS stations, they have info on this regarding wind and flood, but I imagine this will unfortunately catch a lot of people by surprise from a communication standpoint.
Weather Story for Southeast VA, Northeast NC & Southern MD

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[NorthArlington101]

People get mad when the NWS names slop for “inflating the numbers.” Now it’s the opposite? Tough job

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

People get mad when the NWS names slop for “inflating the numbers.” Now it’s the opposite? Tough job

True.
In this case though, keep in mind that this wasn’t even given a 10% chance in any TWO to become just a subtropical depression. The TWOs cover both tropical and subtropical depression+ development potential.

[WxWatcher007]

It’s still clearly baroclinic—attached to a frontal boundary. You can see it clearly in the visible satellite.

Same impacts as a TS, but just not tropical.

 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s still clearly baroclinic—attached to a frontal boundary. You can see it clearly in the visible satellite.

Same impacts as a TS, but just not tropical.

 

But what do you think about the possibility that this also has some tropical characteristics making it subtropical?

[GaWx]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing 
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow 
development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter 
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from 
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

But what do you think about the possibility that this also has some tropical characteristics making it subtropical?

It’s over increasingly marginal SSTs and doesn’t have a lot of time before it’s either onshore or tucked into the coast. If that boundary weren’t so clear I’d say it has a solid chance of subtropical development, but I just think this one isn’t going to get there. I don’t think the NHC would pull the trigger on that. Not this year at least with them missing/slow to designate two TCs this season. 

If this were off of Wilmington, I think it’d be a different story given SSTs.

It’s firing good convection, but you really want to see it over the center. On radar though the presentation is actually pretty nice with some spiral banding evident. Worth a casual eye in case my analysis is wrong lol.

[NorthHillsWx]

https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1967948009901109559?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1967948009901109559?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

 

Totally agree with Andy. The only real shot of continental US impacts at this point would come from homebrew off the coast/Gulf or from the Caribbean. 

[NorthHillsWx]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s over increasingly marginal SSTs and doesn’t have a lot of time before it’s either onshore or tucked into the coast. If that boundary weren’t so clear I’d say it has a solid chance of subtropical development, but I just think this one isn’t going to get there. I don’t think the NHC would pull the trigger on that. Not this year at least with them missing/slow to designate two TCs this season. 

If this were off of Wilmington, I think it’d be a different story given SSTs.

It’s firing good convection, but you really want to see it over the center. On radar though the presentation is actually pretty nice with some spiral banding evident. Worth a casual eye in case my analysis is wrong lol.

Great analysis. I said this on the Southeast board, but folks rushing to name this haven’t seen a proper nor Easter in awhile! It’s a textbook nor Easter and if you look at Water Vapor loop you can see it’s part of a larger ULL centered over the western Carolina’s. Also agree, if this was south of hatteras and over warmer water for longer, you could see it “pinch off” and wrap up into a hybrid system but this is fully frontal at the moment and a very powerful nor Easter. Jennettes pier has now gusted to 65 mph and has recorded gusts over 45 kts for the third straight day. Very impressive system but not tropical

[Seminole]

https://www.outerbanks.org/plan-your-trip/webcams/

OBX webcams. Surfs up!

[NorthHillsWx]

The amount of 45 kt gusts from cape lookout to the mid Atlantic has been impressive with the system. Very large area of strong northerly winds. Can imagine a substantial push of water on some of the sounds and rivers that catch that fetch 

[WxWatcher007]

It’s a really impressive radar presentation. Look at that banding on the northern and western sides. 

[Seminole]

57 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Totally agree with Andy. The only real shot of continental US impacts at this point would come from homebrew off the coast/Gulf or from the Caribbean. 

A homebrewed BOC or Caribbean system that affects the Gulf region would have different outcomes based on where in the Gulf it goes. The northern Gulf SST's are a few degrees cooler than the southern gulf. Big SST difference between NE Gulf and SW Gulf. Any home brewed system that goes into the northern Gulf would have some environmental challenges to clear to make MH status. Southern gulf (S Texas or SW Florida) would need to keep their guard up because conditions are ripe in these areas. 

[GaWx]

 Good discussions all!

 Unlike like the last couple of runs, the 12Z UKMET has no followup TC to 92L.

[bigtenfan]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Good discussions all!

 Unlike like the last couple of runs, the 12Z UKMET has no followup TC to 92L.

Just a question.

 

You seem to quote the UK model quite often. Is it that good of a tropical model? 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

True.
In this case though, keep in mind that this wasn’t even given a 10% chance in any TWO to become just a subtropical depression. The TWOs cover both tropical and subtropical depression+ development potential.

it looks more like a noreaster to me, Larry

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Just a question.

 

You seem to quote the UK model quite often. Is it that good of a tropical model? 

Great Q, big ten fan! 1. The UK has been found to be a top tier model when looking at average errors over the longterm.

2. But I like to post it also for some other reasons like:

-it’s the only one I can find with definitive textual output that’s easy to post without taking up image space and it allows one to post the entire run for a TC on just one page

-so, it’s also good for documentation purposes for when one wants to look back at it for a particular TC or a TC that never formed like the recent Invest 91L

-this complete run’s textual output comes out earlier than all but the Icon of the majors