Silver Meteor Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM 13 hours ago, Scott747 said: Well then... Can't say I Google members names but that's pretty effed up. I can't do anything but remove/hide his posts and will do so until he explains himself to someone with a higher pay grade. In the meantime report his posts that get by until they make a decision. I looked up his user name long ago simply out of curiosity. Odd for sure but so what? This website has more "Karens" than Carter has pills. If one finds it so horribly offensive then use the block feature then go and hide in one's "safe space." Heaven forbid one spends time on X and gets introduced to the truly terrifying real world. Long ago it became apparent there are two themes to this website. First, global warming is a religion not to be questioned unless one wants to be ridiculed, and second, anyone to the right of Trotsky is bashed as a racist, bigot, antisemite or nazi which is why the off-topic section was such a disaster (and the antithesis of free speech.) Now, all that said ... I do agree his "Chav speak" (learned a new term today, thank you) is ridiculous and needs to go. This website "American Weather" is not a place for learning lower class British slang. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cholorob Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:04 PM I looked up his user name long ago simply out of curiosity. Odd for sure but so what? This website has more "Karens" than Carter has pills. If one finds it so horribly offensive then use the block feature then go and hide in one's "safe space." Heaven forbid one spends time on X and gets introduced to the truly terrifying real world. Long ago it became apparent there are two themes to this website. First, global warming is a religion not to be questioned unless one wants to be ridiculed, and second, anyone to the right of Trotsky is bashed as a racist, bigot, antisemite or nazi which is why the off-topic section was such a disaster (and the antithesis of free speech.) Now, all that said ... I do agree his "Chav speak" (learned a new term today, thank you) is ridiculous and needs to go. This website "American Weather" is not a place for learning lower class British slang. My point about the username has more to do with a lack of seriousness and the performative nature of the poster coupled with the chav speak (you are most welcome) - I doubt anybody found the whole thing particularly funny or entertaining. Social media is there so you can put on a performance if you so please, I doubt that is what anybody is signing up for in a meteorological forum.. 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM 15 hours ago, Cholorob said: For those not familiar with the Barry Stanton racist Twitter persona, here is more information about it. Plenty more of this on Google.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13802719/amp/British-grandfather-left-terrified-police-arrest-cruel-social-media-trolls-use-pictures-family-online-spreading-racist-messages.html This would track well with Barry being the alt account of banned member CurlyHeadedBarrett, who also played a persona filled with "Incel" language, and whose last profile picture was Elliot Rodger, a mass-murderer who is idolized in the same spaces as the "Barry Stanton" persona. Not to mention the numerous other similarities/idiosyncrasies that have been brought up already. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted Tuesday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:23 PM 36 minutes ago, Cobalt said: This would track well with Barry being the alt account of banned member CurlyHeadedBarrett, who also played a persona filled with "Incel" language, and whose last profile picture was Elliot Rodger, a mass-murderer who is idolized in the same spaces as the "Barry Stanton" persona. Not to mention the numerous other similarities/idiosyncrasies that have been brought up already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted Tuesday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:27 PM SAL is currently a problem in the MDR and Caribbean right now. This looks more like July than September. https://www.wyff4.com/article/saharan-dust-suppresses-tropical-development-during-peak-season/66012941 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 10:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:31 AM 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 05:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:24 PM Like the 0Z run had (I didn’t post it), the 12Z UKMET continues with the MDR TS, very likely headed for a recurve in the middle of the ocean: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.3N 34.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.09.2025 120 14.2N 35.3W 1008 28 0000UTC 16.09.2025 132 15.1N 38.9W 1007 30 1200UTC 16.09.2025 144 16.7N 41.0W 1006 36 0000UTC 17.09.2025 156 17.7N 42.9W 1005 41 1200UTC 17.09.2025 168 19.2N 45.2W 1003 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted yesterday at 05:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:55 PM Thank you Cholorob for your intelligent reply. Now, getting back to the tropics, or even sub-tropics ... While everyone has been searching for straws there's a little one (potential yellow down the road?) from here in Eastern North Carolina ... Morehead City NWS Discussion: There are some indications of a weak low forming along the stalled front/coastal trough off the FL/GA/SC coast this coming weekend into early next week as a deep positively tilted trough moves through. It is too soon to tell what impacts, if any, are expected with very low confidence on the timing, track, and intensity of the low should it form. At the minimum, winds should pick up a notch thanks to the tightened pressure gradient. This results in a higher degree of uncertainty for the forecast this weekend onwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted yesterday at 08:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:35 PM New area of interest in the far eastern Atlantic. Still a lot of SAL out there. 0% in short term 20% in next 7 days. IMHO, unless the SAL clears out somehow, this one will fizzle out like the last one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted yesterday at 08:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:36 PM 10 hours ago, GaWx said: And here we are at peak, no named storms, no surprise given the conditions out there in the Atlantic. When is the secondary peak in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted yesterday at 09:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:39 PM 1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said: And here we are at peak, no named storms, no surprise given the conditions out there in the Atlantic. When is the secondary peak in October? I wouldn't say there's a specific time frame within October but that is when the second peak happens. Will depend on how everything sets up when/if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 09:46 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:46 PM 1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said: And here we are at peak, no named storms, no surprise given the conditions out there in the Atlantic. When is the secondary peak in October? I as one in a vulnerable location that was pretty heavily affected by two storms last year and in a region (SE) that was badly affected by several devastating hurricanes last year am enjoying this boring for tracking but thankfully safe period. I look at the secondary peak more as a regional peak of origin in/near the W Caribbean. That area of genesis peaks for the season the last week in September through mid October. Likely due to CC, this secondary peak is getting more intense and later. The bad thing about it is that: -many of these storms get very strong due especially to the lingering warmth in the W Caribbean and S Gulf -a very high % of these unfortunately make landfall in one or more locations due to the geography of that region. A lot of luck is needed to avoid that. -Due to these reasons, there have been a number of storms with horrific effects from this region during this timeframe and even well into November. Some examples of the even later storms include Eta of 2020, Iota of 2020, Paloma of 2008, Noel of 2007, Michelle of 2001, Mitch of 1998, Joan of 1988, and the 1932 Cuban hurricane among others. Also, Lenny of 1999 and Rafael of 2024 weren’t anything to sneeze at. And Sandy of 2012 originated down there late in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighNC Posted yesterday at 09:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:50 PM On 9/8/2025 at 11:57 PM, Scott747 said: Well then... Can't say I Google members names but that's pretty effed up. I can't do anything but remove/hide his posts and will do so until he explains himself to someone with a higher pay grade. In the meantime report his posts that get by until they make a decision. My Dad would be proud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighNC Posted yesterday at 09:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:52 PM On 9/9/2025 at 1:39 PM, Silver Meteor said: I looked up his user name long ago simply out of curiosity. Odd for sure but so what? This website has more "Karens" than Carter has pills. If one finds it so horribly offensive then use the block feature then go and hide in one's "safe space." Heaven forbid one spends time on X and gets introduced to the truly terrifying real world. Long ago it became apparent there are two themes to this website. First, global warming is a religion not to be questioned unless one wants to be ridiculed, and second, anyone to the right of Trotsky is bashed as a racist, bigot, antisemite or nazi which is why the off-topic section was such a disaster (and the antithesis of free speech.) Now, all that said ... I do agree his "Chav speak" (learned a new term today, thank you) is ridiculous and needs to go. This website "American Weather" is not a place for learning lower class British slang. Yet you have not been banned despite asserting both positions. Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago The last 2 Euro Weeklies runs, though not getting back to very active levels like they had for late this month at least as of yet, have suggested 9/22-28 to be the most active week ACEwise of the upcoming weeks with 9/29-10/4 being the 2nd most active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 10 hours ago, GaWx said: Like the 0Z run had (I didn’t post it), the 12Z UKMET continues with the MDR TS, very likely headed for a recurve in the middle of the ocean: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.3N 34.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.09.2025 120 14.2N 35.3W 1008 28 0000UTC 16.09.2025 132 15.1N 38.9W 1007 30 1200UTC 16.09.2025 144 16.7N 41.0W 1006 36 0000UTC 17.09.2025 156 17.7N 42.9W 1005 41 1200UTC 17.09.2025 168 19.2N 45.2W 1003 44 Another UKMET run (0Z) with an MDR TS headed for an early recurve:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.2N 26.1WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 14.09.2025 72 11.7N 26.9W 1009 281200UTC 14.09.2025 84 13.1N 30.4W 1008 300000UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.2N 32.8W 1007 301200UTC 15.09.2025 108 14.4N 35.6W 1006 310000UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.7N 37.7W 1005 351200UTC 16.09.2025 132 16.8N 39.8W 1004 410000UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.8N 40.8W 1003 451200UTC 17.09.2025 156 19.9N 42.2W 1002 440000UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.1N 43.3W 1002 46 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago That very large wave just coming off the coast of Africa might have a little gap to develop IMHO, before it runs in to the SAL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 hours ago, Wannabehippie said: That very large wave just coming off the coast of Africa might have a little gap to develop IMHO, before it runs in to the SAL. 12Z UKMET: another run with an MDR TS (this one moving WNW) from this wave: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.7N 32.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2025 84 12.7N 32.7W 1010 27 1200UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.7N 35.4W 1008 29 0000UTC 16.09.2025 108 13.9N 37.7W 1006 28 1200UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.2N 39.8W 1005 38 0000UTC 17.09.2025 132 17.1N 41.3W 1004 40 1200UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.6N 43.3W 1003 42 0000UTC 18.09.2025 156 20.4N 44.8W 1003 45 1200UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.3N 46.7W 1003 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, GaWx said: 12Z UKMET: another run with an MDR TS (this one moving WNW) from this wave: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.7N 32.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2025 84 12.7N 32.7W 1010 27 1200UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.7N 35.4W 1008 29 0000UTC 16.09.2025 108 13.9N 37.7W 1006 28 1200UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.2N 39.8W 1005 38 0000UTC 17.09.2025 132 17.1N 41.3W 1004 40 1200UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.6N 43.3W 1003 42 0000UTC 18.09.2025 156 20.4N 44.8W 1003 45 1200UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.3N 46.7W 1003 41 Chances of formation are still low as per NHC. 0% in next 48 hours. 30% in next 7 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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