BarryStantonGBP Posted Thursday at 07:35 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 07:35 PM 52 minutes ago, GaWx said: Check this out from the Happy Hour GEFS: I don’t think that any of these are from Invest 91L, but I’m not saying it’s drunk either. I think these are from a legit system ahead of 91L. Are they from the system between 45W and 50W? oi lazza I found these, what are your thoughts on them mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Thursday at 07:43 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 07:43 PM nice path mate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Thursday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:54 PM 19 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: oi lazza I found these, what are your thoughts on them mate Yeah, ones in Gulf may very well be from MDR AEW ahead of 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Thursday at 08:01 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 08:01 PM 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: Yeah, ones in Gulf may very well be from MDR AEW ahead of 91L. What strength do they read on the ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Thursday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:19 PM 16 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: What strength do they read on the ens? 990s-950s/TS to cat 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Thursday at 08:41 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 08:41 PM 21 minutes ago, GaWx said: 990s-950s/TS to cat 3 imelda or dumberto? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Thursday at 09:06 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:06 PM 25 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: imelda or dumberto? @GaWx seriously mate is the storm depicted imelda or humberto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Thursday at 09:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:15 PM 7 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: @GaWx seriously mate is the storm depicted imelda or humberto They’re ensemble members. They don’t depict them with names. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Thursday at 10:50 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:50 PM 1 hour ago, GaWx said: They’re ensemble members. They don’t depict them with names. What I means is assuming 91l takes gabby Does the gulf storm form before or after the storm behind gabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Thursday at 11:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:04 PM 16 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: What I means is assuming 91l takes gabby Does the gulf storm form before or after the storm behind gabby The Gulf storm and the storm ahead of Invest 91L/likely future Gabby may end up being one and the same for all we know now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 06:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:43 AM 8 hours ago, GaWx said: The Gulf storm and the storm ahead of Invest 91L/likely future Gabby may end up being one and the same for all we know now. From something well to the W of 91L coming out of the Caribbean in 6-7 days, the 6Z GEFS is pretty active mainly in the Gulf with a couple E of FL. Some of these members are hurricanes. *Edit: The GEFS/EPS of the last few days have had the MJO then in or near the most dangerous phase for July-Sept CONUS H hits, phase 2: Edit: 6Z GEFS suggests there could be another TC coming out of the W Caribbean later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 07:44 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 07:44 AM 1 hour ago, GaWx said: From something well to the W of 91L coming out of the Caribbean in 6-7 days, the 6Z GEFS is pretty active mainly in the Gulf with a couple E of FL. Some of these members are hurricanes. *Edit: The GEFS/EPS of the last few days have had the MJO then in or near the most dangerous phase for July-Sept CONUS H hits, phase 2: Edit: 6Z GEFS suggests there could be another TC coming out of the W Caribbean later. Shit mate that sounds crap innit and with the mjo coming in this could peak as anything innit? how did Helene and idyllica get detected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM Now GDM has 91L "Gabby" reforming in the subtropics "Humberto" becomes long track CV major "Imelda" goes for the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted yesterday at 05:16 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:16 PM Euro and GFS both showing nothing through September 20. Time to start bringing 2013 into conversation... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 05:34 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:34 PM 22 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Euro and GFS both showing nothing through September 20. Time to start bringing 2013 into conversation... Don't bother with non-ens/ai models tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 7 hours ago, cptcatz said: Euro and GFS both showing nothing through September 20. Time to start bringing 2013 into conversation... 0z GFS Op goes up the GOM from WC off TB 9/14, so la la land. GEFS appear to showing that dev thru mid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 14 hours ago Author Share Posted 14 hours ago 3 hours ago, TPAwx said: 0z GFS Op goes up the GOM from WC off TB 9/14, so la la land. GEFS appear to showing that dev thru mid run. No. Conditions will become more favourable then so you are being too optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 11 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: How do we know this isn’t a cope like when similar points are brought up in winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 34 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: How do we know this isn’t a cope like when similar points are brought up in winter? Delayed but not yet denied has become a never ending carrot dangle for winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 39 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: How do we know this isn’t a cope like when similar points are brought up in winter? It isn’t. I calculated the reason for a lull and it’s all linked to the lrc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Man the western Atlantic looks downright hostile the next 3 weeks besides home brew 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago With 91L kaput we will likely reach the historical peak of hurricane season (9/10-9/11) with no named storm in the Atlantic Basin. ACE season to date is now below normal. We're at 39 and normal is 47. Erin is responsible for 32 of those 39 ACE points. We're wasting peak season at this point so we're going to have some catching up to do if we want to get to normal which is 122. It still can be done though so we'll have to see what mid September into October can pull off. MJO forecast to go into more favorable phases by then but we've been playing a bit of kick the can on that so remains to be seen. Gut tells me watch out for something to lift out of the Caribbean toward the Gulf coast before all is said and done. I think if there is going to be a Major hit on the U.S. coastline this season it will be the gulf coast. Chances of an east major hit this season are low and decreasing for several reasons. Not expecting anything to get named over the next 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Bastardi making the daring prediction that 'the season isn't over' when it's not even September 10th yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago I will bloody repeat AGAIN THE MJO IS BEING STALLED IN PHASES 8 - 2 AND WE WILL GET MORE MOISTURE DRAGGED UP DURING MID-LATE MONTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 4 minutes ago Share Posted 4 minutes ago 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Man the western Atlantic looks downright hostile the next 3 weeks besides home brew Eastern Atlantic is not much better at the moment with the SAL out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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