BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 12:35 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 12:35 AM 52 minutes ago, GaWx said: Check this out from the Happy Hour GEFS: I don’t think that any of these are from Invest 91L, but I’m not saying it’s drunk either. I think these are from a legit system ahead of 91L. Are they from the system between 45W and 50W? oi lazza I found these, what are your thoughts on them mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 12:43 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 12:43 AM nice path mate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 12:54 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:54 AM 19 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: oi lazza I found these, what are your thoughts on them mate Yeah, ones in Gulf may very well be from MDR AEW ahead of 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 01:01 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:01 AM 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: Yeah, ones in Gulf may very well be from MDR AEW ahead of 91L. What strength do they read on the ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 01:19 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:19 AM 16 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: What strength do they read on the ens? 990s-950s/TS to cat 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 01:41 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:41 AM 21 minutes ago, GaWx said: 990s-950s/TS to cat 3 imelda or dumberto? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 02:06 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 02:06 AM 25 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: imelda or dumberto? @GaWx seriously mate is the storm depicted imelda or humberto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 02:15 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:15 AM 7 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: @GaWx seriously mate is the storm depicted imelda or humberto They’re ensemble members. They don’t depict them with names. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 03:50 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:50 AM 1 hour ago, GaWx said: They’re ensemble members. They don’t depict them with names. What I means is assuming 91l takes gabby Does the gulf storm form before or after the storm behind gabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 04:04 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:04 AM 16 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: What I means is assuming 91l takes gabby Does the gulf storm form before or after the storm behind gabby The Gulf storm and the storm ahead of Invest 91L/likely future Gabby may end up being one and the same for all we know now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 11:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:43 AM 8 hours ago, GaWx said: The Gulf storm and the storm ahead of Invest 91L/likely future Gabby may end up being one and the same for all we know now. From something well to the W of 91L coming out of the Caribbean in 6-7 days, the 6Z GEFS is pretty active mainly in the Gulf with a couple E of FL. Some of these members are hurricanes. *Edit: The GEFS/EPS of the last few days have had the MJO then in or near the most dangerous phase for July-Sept CONUS H hits, phase 2: Edit: 6Z GEFS suggests there could be another TC coming out of the W Caribbean later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 12:44 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 12:44 PM 1 hour ago, GaWx said: From something well to the W of 91L coming out of the Caribbean in 6-7 days, the 6Z GEFS is pretty active mainly in the Gulf with a couple E of FL. Some of these members are hurricanes. *Edit: The GEFS/EPS of the last few days have had the MJO then in or near the most dangerous phase for July-Sept CONUS H hits, phase 2: Edit: 6Z GEFS suggests there could be another TC coming out of the W Caribbean later. Shit mate that sounds crap innit and with the mjo coming in this could peak as anything innit? how did Helene and idyllica get detected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 09:18 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:18 PM Now GDM has 91L "Gabby" reforming in the subtropics "Humberto" becomes long track CV major "Imelda" goes for the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted Friday at 10:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:16 PM Euro and GFS both showing nothing through September 20. Time to start bringing 2013 into conversation... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 10:34 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 10:34 PM 22 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Euro and GFS both showing nothing through September 20. Time to start bringing 2013 into conversation... Don't bother with non-ens/ai models tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted yesterday at 05:36 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:36 AM 7 hours ago, cptcatz said: Euro and GFS both showing nothing through September 20. Time to start bringing 2013 into conversation... 0z GFS Op goes up the GOM from WC off TB 9/14, so la la land. GEFS appear to showing that dev thru mid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 08:45 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 08:45 AM 3 hours ago, TPAwx said: 0z GFS Op goes up the GOM from WC off TB 9/14, so la la land. GEFS appear to showing that dev thru mid run. No. Conditions will become more favourable then so you are being too optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 11 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: How do we know this isn’t a cope like when similar points are brought up in winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 34 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: How do we know this isn’t a cope like when similar points are brought up in winter? Delayed but not yet denied has become a never ending carrot dangle for winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago 39 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: How do we know this isn’t a cope like when similar points are brought up in winter? It isn’t. I calculated the reason for a lull and it’s all linked to the lrc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Man the western Atlantic looks downright hostile the next 3 weeks besides home brew 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago With 91L kaput we will likely reach the historical peak of hurricane season (9/10-9/11) with no named storm in the Atlantic Basin. ACE season to date is now below normal. We're at 39 and normal is 47. Erin is responsible for 32 of those 39 ACE points. We're wasting peak season at this point so we're going to have some catching up to do if we want to get to normal which is 122. It still can be done though so we'll have to see what mid September into October can pull off. MJO forecast to go into more favorable phases by then but we've been playing a bit of kick the can on that so remains to be seen. Gut tells me watch out for something to lift out of the Caribbean toward the Gulf coast before all is said and done. I think if there is going to be a Major hit on the U.S. coastline this season it will be the gulf coast. Chances of an east major hit this season are low and decreasing for several reasons. Not expecting anything to get named over the next 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Bastardi making the daring prediction that 'the season isn't over' when it's not even September 10th yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago I will bloody repeat AGAIN THE MJO IS BEING STALLED IN PHASES 8 - 2 AND WE WILL GET MORE MOISTURE DRAGGED UP DURING MID-LATE MONTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Man the western Atlantic looks downright hostile the next 3 weeks besides home brew Eastern Atlantic is not much better at the moment with the SAL out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago 52 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Eastern Atlantic is not much better at the moment with the SAL out there. check out GDM and the ensembles things will improve innit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 5 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: BTW 18Z GEFS shows a battle between Texas/LA and a burrito from the WCAR and another storm coming off Africa ("gabby") The 18Z GEFS is the most active run yet in the W Car/Gulf 9/12-end of the run! If I were living on the Gulf coast, I’d be a bit concerned. As Barry earlier mentioned, this has strong support from the MJO. More about that soon: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: Barry, I’m just giving a general idea of what might occur. Nobody can possibly answer your Q. That’s all on this for now. Keep watching but get a good night’s sleep. It’s very late your way. too much stellas it's Saturday night innit and my return cycle calculations showed a storm in the gulf around the 3rd week of sep anyways lad it's based off cycles innit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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