2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Torch Tiger]

6 hours ago, jconsor said:

I was referring to highly unlikely possibility that so many of the hurricanes in both basins will become majors.

 I was more taken back by the 6/5 7/5, nearly every hurricane going major in BOTH basins is a bit weird

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Final tallies are in for Apr-May SLP pattern of most active Atlantic Hurricane seasons since 1995:

VS ACTUAL

Tell me what you think, I think it's close to opposite

I think with this the median we can expect this season is 13-14 Named Storms.. of course there are many other factors. 

[GaWx]

[jconsor]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Final tallies are in for Apr-May SLP pattern of most active Atlantic Hurricane seasons since 1995:

VS ACTUAL

Tell me what you think, I think it's close to opposite

I think with this the median we can expect this season is 13-14 Named Storms.. of course there are many other factors. 

Hi Chuck,

Interesting comparisons!  I personally think using named storms to characterize active vs. inactive years is not particularly meaningful, given the human subjectivity and changes in NHC criteria over the years in terms of what is named.

If we take the years with the most and least ACE since 1995, removing years that were El Ninos in the Apr-May timeframe (since they tend to be strongly correlated with -NAO), here are the most active years:

2020, 2005, 2004, 2003, 1999, 1996, 1995

The least active years:
2014, 2013, 2009, 2007, 2006

This year has some characteristics in common with the least active years (-MSLP anomaly from NW Territories of Canada to Greenland and +MSLP anomaly from the NW US to Hudson Bay and off the coast of the NE US).  However, what is different from the inactive year composite, and closer to the active year composite, is the -MSLP from near Newfoundland to the central Atlantic near the Azores and then southward into the far east Atlantic and w. Africa.  Additionally, the strong +NSLP from near the UK to Iceland is more similar to the active year composite.

In short, a mixed bag, probably closer to inactive years but not a clear signal!
 

[BarryStantonGBP]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

 

I think with this the median we can expect this season is 13-14 Named Storms.. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

If anything delayed formation favors a home grown season. Further west of the MDR box water temps and OHC are still significantly above normal. While overall ace and named storm numbers may end up below hyperactive, an impactful season still looks likely. A rapidly intensifying storm on approach has much more damage potential then a decaying former MDR major. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

If anything delayed formation favors a home grown season. Further west of the MDR box water temps and OHC are still significantly above normal. While overall ace and named storm numbers may end up below hyperactive, an impactful season still looks likely. A rapidly intensifying storm on approach has much more damage potential then a decaying former MDR major. 

 As a near coast resident, I do fear the tendency of storms developing further W and not having as much chance to recurve E of the US though it is still plenty warm in the MDR. The projected RONI based weak La Niña like last year is not comforting as far as favored tracks and suggests another significantly impactful season on the US is quite possible. Of course, with last season being so horribly bad for the SE US, the odds are that this one won’t be nearly as bad there. Fingers crossed, especially for FL, which can’t take another horrendous year. Even my area had BOTH the worst flooding from a storm (Debby) in at least 8 years as well as widespread multi day outages (Helene) (worst since 1979/David). I’d love nothing more than another 2013, 2010, 2001, or 2000. Most of those years would also make you happy and without all of the destruction.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 As a near coast resident, I do fear the tendency of storms developing further W and not having as much chance to recurve E of the US though it is still plenty warm in the MDR. The projected RONI based weak La Niña like last year is not comforting as far as favored tracks and suggests another significantly impactful season on the US is quite possible. Of course, with last season being so horribly bad for the SE US, the odds are that this one won’t be nearly as bad there. Fingers crossed, especially for FL, which can’t take another horrendous year. Even my area had BOTH the worst flooding from a storm (Debby) in at least 8 years as well as widespread multi day outages (Helene) (worst since 1979/David). I’d love nothing more than another 2013, 2010, 2001, or 2000. Most of those years would also make you happy and without all of the destruction.

Unfortunately Florida would be my favored area for another Major. It’s only a matter of time before we see another Andrew into south Florida.

I would never favor the NE for a hit as it’s a low probability year over year but it’s the most “due”. Water temps in the home grown area for the north east are the most anomalous in the entire basin. A Bob or Carol track would almost certainly lead to a major hit for eastern New England. Something that hasn’t happened since 1938. Obviously no one will feel sorry if the Hamptons are  destroyed. Having spent time out there, there are middle to lower income communities were workers live. And these people would be the most impacted. 
 

[TriPol]

https://www.mediaite.com/media/tv/florida-weatherman-warns-he-wont-be-able-to-accurately-predict-hurricanes-this-summer-because-of-federal-budget-cuts/

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 6/3/2025 at 8:41 AM, jconsor said:

Hi Chuck,

Interesting comparisons!  I personally think using named storms to characterize active vs. inactive years is not particularly meaningful, given the human subjectivity and changes in NHC criteria over the years in terms of what is named.

ACE is probably a better metric. Either way, there is a clear SLP pattern of Atlantic tripole for active seasons Apr-May vs the opposite. We've had a little more +NAO/+AO this Apr-May.