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May 24-26 Severe Threat


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I'll spark the kindling again. Tomorrow snuck up with a 5% :twister:contour right over southern Wisconsin, as well as far eastern Iowa and northern IL on the SWODY2 update. CAM solutions vary though; if the HRRR were to verify it looks like the 5% would end up being too far north, with WI mostly getting mid-morning MCS activity (which goes against the forecast from the NWS, which calls for morning sun followed by PM storms).

 

Saturday the focus looks to be mainly west of the sub over in the Plains (Central/Western); but Sunday as mentioned in the general severe thread looks quite interesting and potentially significant; further east and south of the parts of the sub that were impacted on Tuesday although the NAM solution suggests northern IL and even southern WI could be in play again.

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I think tomorrow looks like a typical slight risk, unless the MCV is stronger and boosts otherwise middling deep layer shear. That definitely can't be ruled out, and interested to see the 00z guidance trends. I suspect the 18z NAMs slowed too much.

Sunday has a pretty high ceiling, including within the LOT CWA. Both NAM runs today were scary bad, but outer ranges of the NAM caveats apply. Even on the Euro solution, the morning convection does limit destabilization and probably the magnitude of the threat farther north, likely not enough to preclude brief tornadoes near the sfc low and warm front, though.

Farther south, forecast soundings and hodograph shape support an all hazards threat, including potentially strong tornadoes. Given the dynamics at play and time of year, better air mass recovery farther north and a higher end threat are firmly within the realm of plausibility, considering the northward trend of the surface low track.



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16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think tomorrow looks like a typical slight risk, unless the MCV is stronger and boosts otherwise middling deep layer shear. That definitely can't be ruled out, and interested to see the 00z guidance trends. I suspect the 18z NAMs slowed too much.

Sunday has a pretty high ceiling, including within the LOT CWA. Both NAM runs today were scary bad, but outer ranges of the NAM caveats apply. Even on the Euro solution, the morning convection does limit destabilization and probably the magnitude of the threat farther north, likely not enough to preclude brief tornadoes near the sfc low and warm front, though.

Farther south, forecast soundings and hodograph shape support an all hazards threat, including potentially strong tornadoes. Given the dynamics at play and time of year, better air mass recovery farther north and a higher end threat are firmly within the realm of plausibility, considering the northward trend of the surface low track.


 

If I Venmo you $20, can I get at least some thunder this time?

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6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Meanwhile, 18Z 3K NAM wants a Tuesday redux for Wisconsin, with UH tracks extending way north of where SPC has the slight.

208858529_Screenshot2024-05-23181223.thumb.png.c999bf59c323d8f764c8ce21facdf6c3.png

Yeah can we not do a repeat of that? It's going to take at least another week to get fully cleaned up here from Tuesday, and with the Crawfish still quite high we are prone rn to any major rainfall. That's honestly my biggest concern atm out of this stretch, as essentially the corridor from Lodi to Doylestown to Fox Lake to Waupun can't take a whole lot more rain after Monday/Tuesday. As well as points west along the Baraboo, although they are still coming off the drought there so its not as bad. If we get unlucky with either total rain amounts or rainfall rates we could be talking some potential issues along the drainages along that corridor come Monday. We have the potential for the biggest flooding event in the area since the Wild Card flooding in October 2019 in my opinion.

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idk about severe here today, seems unlikely by feel alone, but hrrr at least tries to get some garden variety into the area with the remnant mcv as apposed to last weeks dry fropa

just happy to be involved and staying active

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18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

idk about severe here today, seems unlikely by feel alone, but hrrr at least tries to get some garden variety into the area with the remnant mcv as apposed to last weeks dry fropa

just happy to be involved and staying active

They got that watch up real early 

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

idk about severe here today, seems unlikely by feel alone, but hrrr at least tries to get some garden variety into the area with the remnant mcv as apposed to last weeks dry fropa

just happy to be involved and staying active

Models are doing abysmally with this morning QLCS. If this one continues packing, it will roll right through the metro before noon. 

Either way, happy to get the rain. After a couple near misses recently, we have actually turned a bit dry out this way. 

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2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

idk about severe here today, seems unlikely by feel alone, but hrrr at least tries to get some garden variety into the area with the remnant mcv as apposed to last weeks dry fropa

just happy to be involved and staying active

Looks like HRRR was right yesterday per SPC's 13Z update, ongoing complex and its cold pool will bollox afternoon supercell :twister:chances north of IL/WI line. NWS, and the mets at my work were way off predicting a sunny morning with storms holding off till mid/late afternoon.

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20 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Models are doing abysmally with this morning QLCS. If this one continues packing, it will roll right through the metro before noon. 

Either way, happy to get the rain. After a couple near misses recently, we have actually turned a bit dry out this way. 

Rains always come just in time, blessed. 

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Im expecting the classic NE IL special today: QLCS weakens just before reaching here and also ruins chances for severe later in the day lol

 

SPC seems pretty optimistic regarding this line per MD #927, I wouldn't mind being wrong.

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39 minutes ago, homedis said:

Im expecting the classic NE IL special today: QLCS weakens just before reaching here and also ruins chances for severe later in the day lol

 

SPC seems pretty optimistic regarding this line per MD #927, I wouldn't mind being wrong.

Decaying QLCS incoming

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Today Northern Illinois into Chicagoland Atmo might be too overturned from the midday MCS. Models that have a robust round 2 later handle the morning MCS poorly, and one simply didn't even initialize it. Back along the Mississippi River could be a different story. As for Chicago, I'm looking forward to midday shelfies with the skyline.

Sunday is my main interest. Could start out with a raging MCS too. Difference is that Sunday is a stronger system. After the MCS a second short-wave is progged by most models coming in toward 00Z. Early MCS should leave outflow boundaries. Some will drift south of the synoptic WF and such OFBs would be my main interest to a point. South of I-64 will get away from the best upper support and into questionable terrain. 

SPC also favors such outflow boundaries for their Sunday Enhanced risk corridor, which I interpret from the WF down to the OFBs. Could also be the most wind reports later. Lincoln, IL mentions the outflow boundaries kind of in passing before getting to the red meat part of the forecast discussion for Sunday.

Lincoln, IL discussion looks good for Sunday.
..Forecast soundings (NAM/SREF) Sunday show long, cyclonically
curved hodographs along with very steep (>8.5-9.0 C/km) mid level
lapse rates supportive of supercells and large hail. 0-1 km bulk
shear of 15-25 kt and high SRH (>200 m2/s2) are supportive of
supercell tornadoes. Storms should become linear with time with
wind then becoming the primary hazard.

 

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Flash flood warning prompted for 1-2” of rainfall with ongoing very heavy rain currently. Getting absolutely dumped on. 
 

EDIT:almost feels like some training occurring in southern Champaign county, another storm just blew up, with torrential rainfall occurring. What an afternoon to ring in your 35th birthday. 
 

rain gauge has 2.5” already

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