Quincy Posted May 21 Author Share Posted May 21 Quick surface analysis: Modifying outflow/moisture gradient over Iowa may locally enhance the tornado threat. Supercells already initiating near the deepening surface low. Expect an expansive, broken line of supercells from Iowa, down into Missouri and southeastern Kansas within the next 3-4 hours. Isolated development is possible into northeastern Oklahoma, but also near a trough-like feature ahead of a cold front. Some CAMs show isolated development in the warm sector, here, from southeastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and southern Missouri. Not pictured above, but there’s also isolated supercell potential in North Texas later on. Multiple areas to watch. It looks like a regional severe outbreak is likely, especially across Missouri and Iowa. We’ll see how far NE it spreads. I’ll be hanging back around the KS/MO/OK border area, where more isolated activity is expected, along with storm motions that are not as fast. 50-60 mph storm motions are likely across Iowa and vicinity, but perhaps closer to 35-45 MPH on the SW trailing end of supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 14 minutes ago, Quincy said: Quick surface analysis: Modifying outflow/moisture gradient over Iowa may locally enhance the tornado threat. Supercells already initiating near the deepening surface low. Expect an expansive, broken line of supercells from Iowa, down into Missouri and southeastern Kansas within the next 3-4 hours. Isolated development is possible into northeastern Oklahoma, but also near a trough-like feature ahead of a cold front. Some CAMs show isolated development in the warm sector, here, from southeastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and southern Missouri. Not pictured above, but there’s also isolated supercell potential in North Texas later on. Multiple areas to watch. It looks like a regional severe outbreak is likely, especially across Missouri and Iowa. We’ll see how far NE it spreads. I’ll be hanging back around the KS/MO/OK border area, where more isolated activity is expected, along with storm motions that are not as fast. 50-60 mph storm motions are likely across Iowa and vicinity, but perhaps closer to 35-45 MPH on the SW trailing end of supercells. Got a "little engine that could" trying its damndest right now just east of FW... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 1 hour ago, Powerball said: Got a "little engine that could" trying its damndest right now just east of FW... That thing is/was definitely quite elevated. DFW and DAL both picked up little (if any) precip from it, and it had virtually no impact on surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 DOW is on that Greenfield IA storm. Probably going to get some wild data out of that storm. Appears the town might have just taken a direct hit. https://x.com/DualDoppler/status/1793019643906359782 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 possible tornado by Tiawah, Oklahoma, which is near the Tulsa radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 No rest for the weary. Saturday (Southern Plains) and Sunday further east are looking pretty impressive on the various 00z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 4 hours ago, andyhb said: No rest for the weary. Saturday (Southern Plains) and Sunday further east are looking pretty impressive on the various 00z model runs. I'm moving back east from Arizona this weekend, and plans are to be in Amarillo Saturday night and central/east Missouri Sunday night. Am I good, or might I see some action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 22 Author Share Posted May 22 Mean troughing across the Northwest will allow several disturbances to rotate around its base over the next few days. Expecte severe threats to continue into the weekend from the Plains into parts of the Midwest/Mid-South. Today: A sagging cold front, convectively reinforced across Oklahoma and vicinity as of midday, will be the focus for severe thunderstorm activity today. Elevated supercells across central Oklahoma earlier this morning will pose the initial severe threat from southeastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. The environment south of the front, across much of Texas toward the Arklatex, is already strongly to extremely unstable. With forcing ahead of the cold front impinging on rich low level moisture in place, widespread convective initiation is likely by early afternoon. Although deep layer shear is more than sufficient for organized severe convection, wind profiles suggest mixed storm modes with numerous cell interactions. A few initial supercells are probable across central Texas, SW toward the Rio Grande, but even these storms should tend to grow upscale fairly quickly. Thursday: Moisture recovery may take a while due to convective overturning from today/tonight. The most likely area for widespread convection during the afternoon will be across the Dakotas into Nebraska, as an upper level disturbance ejects out of the Northern Rockies. A more conditional severe risk may evolve near a dryline from Kansas, southward into western Oklahoma and west-central Texas. Models vary with convective coverage, but at least isolated convective initiation seems possible. As a cold front surges southeast Thursday night, it should overtake the dryline in Kansas and shunt appreciable low level moisture south across the Southern Plains. Friday: A shortwave is progged to eject from the Central Plains toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. This combined with the surging cold front should push the severe threat into parts of the Midwest, southward toward the Arkansas vicinity. Some severe thunderstorms may once again impact parts of Texas, but with several days of convective overturning and moisture getting pushed south, the threat may be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 The early initiation with the front surging southward faster than expected, as well as the lack of surface heating beforehand (since we were socked in low clouds), kind of did DFW in as far as not realizing the full potential with this setup.But it does seem there were plenty of low-end severe hail reports in the northern suburbs (quarter to half-dollar size) thanks to ample elevated instability and vertical shear. So while underperforming, not a total bust.Also, lightning just struck a transformer here and the power was out for about 15 seconds (it's back on now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toothache Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 We got smacked with the last hailstorms that went through DFW and it is looking like we may have a fair chance of a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Strong tornado WNW of San Angelo right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toothache Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 20 hours ago, Toothache said: We got smacked with the last hailstorms that went through DFW and it is looking like we may have a fair chance of a repeat. Ended up seeing 1 hailstone with this storm. Was nothing like the battering 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 With regards to the Southern Plains severe threat today: Focus is along the dryline, although there are mixed signals about storm coverage and longevity. Large scale forcing is modest, over the NW Oklahoma/Kansas portion of the region, but height falls will be somewhat more than areas to the south, where deep layer flow will be stronger. Midday convection across North Texas complicates the forecast to some degree. The western flank may be a focus for intense high precipitation supercell development later. The middle area, SW Oklahoma into NW Texas may be where the best overlap of ingredients exists. This is where there seems to be the most model agreement, although augmentation of the environment due to downstream convection cannot be overlooked. Over western Kansas, there may be a relative minimum in convective coverage. CAMs are mostly void of convection, although a few NAM/WRF members and occasional HRRR runs suggest at isolated convective initiation, somewhere near Dodge City, perhaps near where an effective warm front intersects the dryline. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 This one had a tornado east of Lewellen Nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 TOR on the ground near Marlin TX. Cell looks violent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 large tornado, by Kosse TX, Marlin TX (as mentioned) Quote ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON...SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE AND EAST CENTRAL FALLS COUNTIES... At 702 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 7 miles northwest of Twin Oak Reservoir, or 18 miles east of Marlin, moving east at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Storm chasers saw brief cone tornado near East Duke, Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 4 minutes ago, Chinook said: Storm chasers saw brief cone tornado near East Duke, Oklahoma PDS warning with that now. Looks beautiful on radar as well. Surprisingly active day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 some of the higher velocities I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 the tornado has moved more north-northeast, going away from Olustee, possibly closer to Altus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Chasing the sig tor in SW Oklahoma 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 22 minutes ago, Chinook said: some of the higher velocities I've seen There have been several very high end tornados this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Mesoscale Discussion 0918 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 295... Valid 240033Z - 240130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 295 continues. SUMMARY...A dangerous, tornadic supercell is expected to continue slowly moving ESE across Jackson County, and as far south as the Red River over the next hour. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from KFDR indicates VROT has increased to 90-105 kt within an ongoing, confirmed tornado located just west of Olustee, OK (southwest of Altus). The extremely unstable environment downstream of this strong to violent tornado will continue to favor tornadogensis, where SSE sustained surface winds around 20 to 25 kt will enhance localized surface vorticity. ..Barnes.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34429971 34689979 34889951 34709905 34589867 34469859 34189856 34069888 33989911 33999941 34169960 34429971 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 vere Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 OKC055-065-075-141-240115- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0127.000000T0000Z-240524T0115Z/ Jackson OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Greer OK- 757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GREER COUNTIES... At 757 PM CDT, a storm with a history of significant tornadoes was just southwest of Altus, moving northeast at 20 mph. An additional tornado was located between Altus and Duke with erratic motion. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Altus, Olustee, Martha, Headrick, Friendship, Altus Air Force Base, Humphreys, and Duke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3455 9954 3467 9957 3474 9953 3477 9908 3447 9916 TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 248DEG 18KT 3462 9937 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Nice donut hole before it occluded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 According to SPC mesoanalysis, the STP went way up, but maxed out just a little north of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Day-3 outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Recapping tonight’s dusty tornado in southwestern Oklahoma with a few images. These were taken in Eldorado. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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