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2024 Tropical Tracking Thread


WxWatcher007
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Day One

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Nothing likely in the foreseeable future. The first window probably opens up mid-June as the MJO becomes more favorable. Not sure the basin will get going until late month though. 

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3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Day One

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 The Key West buoy at 6Z on 6/1 (map time) can be confirmed to have been 89.4F/31.9C. It peaked at a May record breaking 92.3F/33.5C on 5/29/24! Before 2024, the record May high SST was 90.1F/32.3C, which was in 2023. Before 2023, the May record was 89.1F/31.7C (2017). Records go back to 2005.

 

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It’s Tuesday, and while the GFS is on an island with the intensity of possible development in the western Caribbean and Gulf, the nagging signal for moisture ejecting out of the Caribbean is across guidance. 

Being inside 7-10 days with a solid signal for Atlantic ridging means it’s worth a casual eye.

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12z Euro tries to pop a very weak low next week off the SE coast, but rather than using energy ejecting from the western Caribbean as the focal point it’s using an offshore boundary. Verbatim (which doesn’t matter much at this range) it’s not fully tropical given the axis it forms on and marginal SSTs at that specific location, but it’s something worth noting and watching to see if it trends toward having more Caribbean vorticity.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m going to be in Hilton head on the 17th. Need tropical foolishness all gone.

Massive ridge pressing whatever activity south on the latest GFS. It looks like some sort of moisture train is coming to Florida and/or the Gulf next week, whether it’s organized somewhat remains to be seen. 

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I think the Gulf signal is becoming increasingly real. Even if the result is an early season lopsided low. I was just saying I’d pop a lemon in the eastern Gulf. 

Looking at the ensembles too, it looks like the CAG could produce multiple opportunities…

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3 hours ago, TSG said:

Request: can you also post the avg OHC map for the date for comparison?

I can’t find an average OHC map for the date, but I do have the anomaly plot. 

Current OHC

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Anomaly

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MDR anomaly comparison to other years

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I've been alluding to this window of favorability and I have a little time to explain what I've meant. 

The overall setup over the next 10 days or so is a bit tricky. For for this early in the season, it's our first real window for some type of development. What makes this interesting is that the guidance after waffling for about a week or so are now highlighting a broad window with areas to casually watch imo. Let's start by talking about the main features associated with this potential window opening.  

-Currently we have combined with diffluent flow we have an anomalous plume of tropical moisture streaming north into the Gulf of Mexico around a ridge nosing into the Caribbean. 

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As this happens, we have broad cyclonic flow over the western Caribbean and Central America. Not quite declared a CAG from what I've seen, but that's possible at some point within the next week or so. Nothing spectacularly strong, but you just need a window for a seedling to develop. The odds of TC genesis also end up slightly elevated given how exceptionally warm this region is this early in the season. 

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Let's turn to three areas. 

1) Gulf of Mexico/SE US Coast (3-7 Days) 
This is the most immediate area of interest. The signal for organization and possible TC genesis, however muted, has existed for this region first. The signal has bounced around too. The GFS originally took some of the energy ejected out of the Caribbean and tried to organize a low in the Gulf. For a while it was very aggressive with the signal but has settled to a more climatologically favored broad and moisture laden low in the eastern Gulf. The Canadian has been further west, and the Euro was barely on board until recently. Not a surprise given how weak the signal overall has been at times. 

However, the signal in the last day has diverged a bit, with the Euro taking the ejecting energy across Florida and developing a low, perhaps (sub)tropical, off the SE coast before going harmlessly out to sea. Today the GFS has tried moving toward this solution. 

EPS

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GEFS

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This is an interesting short term shift, but it may very well may be rooted in a realistic seed. Both the GFS and especially Euro take an area of vorticity currently in the Gulf across the FL Peninsula midweek before some type of development. The Euro is most aggressive. 

Although it is highly sheared, the small area of vorticity has held on and tightened a bit today. 

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Let's not overstate it--it doesn't look like much. But again, we watch for seedlings this time of year that can become something more organized eventually. Let's see what it looks like tomorrow and the coming days. One thing to watch is if it gets trapped under a ridge that will bring heat to much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast next week but that's just speculation given the latest GFS run. The Euro develops a modest low that gets swept out to sea in straightforward fashion. 

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2) BoC Low (6-9 Days)
This has been a consistent signal the last day or so by the Euro/EPS, and the GFS/GEFS are on board to an extent. Whether this comes from an EPAC disturbance or something that rolls up as a result of being on the Atlantic side of a CAG remains to be seen. 

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I'd bet on any vorticity finding itself in the Bay of Campeche developing provided it has sufficient time. 


3) SW Atlantic (10+ Days) 
Not worth much ink, but as an Atlantic ridge flexes in the long range we may want to watch if there's a sharp wave or piece of a trough that breaks off and tries to develop. Again, not worth much for now. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I know I've mentioned how this is likely an extended window for TC genesis, but I am impressed by just how many opportunities there may be for something to spin up. The monsoon gyre/CAG is giving models fits. Of course, not everything will develop, but even if we get 2 NS that'd put us about a month ahead of the normal season pace. 

1. Invest 90L
Models still differ on whether this develops/develops as a TC, but there is a legitimate window however narrow. 

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Now offshore, there's convection that's still getting sheared a lot from whatever "center' there is. Being over warm waters and the Gulf Stream eventually could help this organize enough into a TC, but it will need to tighten some. Persistent convection should help. 

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2. BoC Area of Interest
This is another legitimate candidate for a NS. The signal remains strong across guidance on some type of development in the next week. Unlike 90L, which is fighting time and a hostile environment, if there is enough vorticity in the BoC the environment should be much more favorable with reduced shear, high SSTs, and the concave nature of the BoC promoting spin. 

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3. Secondary Gulf Potential
Not sure how else to put this, but with so much spin in the Gulf/western Caribbean, the guidance is possibly identifying a separate area that develops out of the broader gyre that is separate from whatever happens in the BoC. 

This is a current 850mb vorticity plot, but that ribbon of vorticity over the CAG region has been persistent and is likely to continue. From that, anything can pop, especially if we see a tropical wave introduced eventually. 

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The GEFS are a little hot, but with the Euro starting to show potential it's worth watching. 

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4. SW Atlantic
I'm still stuck on this area haha. There seems to be a signal that something gets trapped under the massive ridge next week, and as it gets steered west it has a chance to organize. Worth nothing more than a single casual eye right now. 

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By June standards, this is really active. I'd say the first two have a legitimate shot, while we need another day or two to see how real the signal for #3 is, and #4 is just long range speculation at this time. 

 

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1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You think we could have an Isabel sequel this year?

Well, the more hurricanes the higher the odds. SSTs are going to be boiling by mid July everywhere in the Atlantic basin below 40 N.  . A lot depends on the pattern at the time of a threatening hurricane. However, if I lived anywhere along the East Coast, and especially the Gulf, SE and Fla. I would be very prepared for the worse.  

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90L couldn’t get it done in the face of absurd shear, but the BoC now has 50% odds and will likely bring heavy rain to the Gulf coast.

Meanwhile, the SW Atlantic idea has picked up some steam. That may be one to watch in the shorter term if something can in fact break off the trough. That…might be worth a lemon IMO.

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11 hours ago, dailylurker said:

GFS looks like it might capture the remnants along a cold front and push it through our area next weekend. That would be nice to see after bake fest this week. 

Yep. First its gonna hit the western Gulf States or Mex then head straight for the Mid Atlantic.

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