MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Just now, Rtd208 said: Yeah I was never tracking it for snow here. There is nothing like tracking a powerful coastal storm regardless of precipitation type. Always fun and exciting. Rainy week ahead with rain starting Monday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m worried about a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season coming up…record warm MDR already, ++AMO, rapidly developing (possibly strong) La Niña…bad, bad combination. I also think we see a very hot summer with a likely roided up SE ridge and given the extreme soil moisture we have in place, it’s probably going to be humid as hell too If we have the SE Ridge/Bermuda high displaced north like we've been seeing the last several summers, there's the danger hurricanes will track N into our area instead of N then NE before hitting us. Probably will be a very active season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If we have the SE Ridge/Bermuda high displaced north like we've been seeing the last several summers, there's the danger hurricanes will track N into our area instead of N then NE before hitting us. Probably will be a very active season. Even if we just get remnants of a tropical system that makes landfall to our south on the east coast or along the gulf coast that can still bring with it a whole slew of problems i.e. flooding, gusty winds etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Just now, Rtd208 said: Even if we just get remnants of a tropical system that makes landfall to our south on the east coast or along the gulf coast that can still bring with it a whole slew of problems i.e. flooding, gusty winds etc. Just like last September. There was flooding everywhere here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: ROTFLMFAOOOO!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 46 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Even if we just get remnants of a tropical system that makes landfall to our south on the east coast or along the gulf coast that can still bring with it a whole slew of problems i.e. flooding, gusty winds etc. Hello Ida Doesn't help how saturated we've been Dangerous combo, probably a very wet, hot summer, a lot of severe weather + extremely active hurricane season As a severe weather enthusiast I can't help but get excited while also recognize the potential dangers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Hello Ida Doesn't help how saturated we've been Dangerous combo, probably a very wet, hot summer, a lot of severe weather + extremely active hurricane season As a severe weather enthusiast I can't help but get excited while also recognize the potential dangers Yeah I am with you there. It should be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Hi CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hi CMC The storm comes out in multiple phases and it's the last phase of it where we see the bowling ball like capture that leads to the CMC solution. GFS is further north with it so no good. Very slim chance of CMC verifying imo. That would be a historic outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 One can easily toss the CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 The Euro will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said: One can easily toss the CMC Gfs trended in that direction with a more strung out system initially. I don't think you can discount it completely 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs trended in that direction with a more strung out system initially. I don't think you can discount it completely Almost looks like the CMC is struggling with convective feedback the way the coastal develops towards New England and then all of a sudden pops off NJ. Easy toss 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 2 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Almost looks like the CMC is struggling with convective feedback the way the coastal develops towards New England and then all of a sudden pops off NJ. Easy toss More dreariness and cold, that’s of course a guarantee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 CMC is on a roll........a real GEM.... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs trended in that direction with a more strung out system initially. I don't think you can discount it completely I still think areas north of I-80 have not seen the last of accumulating snow - and the coast is still in question - remember I like my weenies with mustard........ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I still think areas north of I-80 have not seen the last of accumulating snow - and the coast is still in question - remember I like my weenies with mustard........ Easier just to laugh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 18 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Almost looks like the CMC is struggling with convective feedback the way the coastal develops towards New England and then all of a sudden pops off NJ. Easy toss The CMC is an extreme outlier. Toss it right into the trash where it belongs. Saying it’s not is wishcasting, pure and simple 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The CMC is an extreme outlier. Toss it right into the trash where it belongs. Saying it’s not is wishcasting, pure and simple It is a legitimate garbage model 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: are you a real Meteorologist ? just asking....the reason I am asking is some well known METS use this model in forecasting and have never trashed it.... Nice edit. You could've just asked why I trash it or what my reasoning was instead of being flat out insulting. Look at the verification scores. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Hi CMC It came north so its not done coming north. Can't get lucky even with a negative NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said: It is a legitimate garbage model I mean you can say about any of the models. They all struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 46 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Nice edit. You could've just asked why I trash it or what my reasoning was instead of being flat out insulting. Look at the verification scores. Ggem was once ahead of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m worried about a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season coming up…record warm MDR already, ++AMO, rapidly developing (possibly strong) La Niña…bad, bad combination. I also think we see a very hot summer with a likely roided up SE ridge and given the extreme soil moisture we have in place, it’s probably going to be humid as hell too Yeah, the Euro tropical forecast from March 5th was already the strongest for so early in the season. So the update coming on April 5th should be interesting. All-time Atlantic SST warmth for so early on the season coupled with a strong La Niña signal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: are you a real Meteorologist ? just asking....the reason I am asking is some well known METS use this model in forecasting and have never trashed it.... I wonder how far south this can go. We haven't had the NAO this negative in a while. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: One can easily toss the CMC Are you and snowman19 brothers? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 10 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Are you and snowman19 brothers? They are both really conservative. Nothing wrong with that . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It came north so its not done coming north. Can't get lucky even with a negative NAO. I think even most snow lovers in this area don't want to get lucky this time of year. Snow in April would be pretty bad since the growing season has started. Thankfully the CMC is very likely to be wrong with the snow solution for our area. Hopefully CMC is also overdoing it with the really big 3 inch plus rain amounts. Euro gives us half that amount of rain, but even if that's correct it's gonna be a miserable few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I think even most snow lovers in this area don't want to get lucky this time of year. Snow in April would be pretty bad since the growing season has started. Thankfully the CMC is very likely to be wrong with the snow solution for our area. Hopefully CMC is also overdoing it with the really big 3 inch plus rain amounts. Euro gives us half that amount of rain, but even if that's correct it's gonna be a miserable few days. the 12Z Euro shifted south with the snow accumulations in the metro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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