WinterWolf Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Cold Monday night with sub 520 dm hydrostatic hgts. There’s no heat in that atmosphere But All we hear is Morch 12 though? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Thunder! Heavy ŕain .Huge short term model fail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thunder! Heavy ŕain .Huge short term model fail Same here, fringed though only .003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 45 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Same here, fringed though only .003 Banged a .15 at home. Of course as I was leaving for work.in Danielson now sky looks awesome check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 We hail 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Models had a convective look. No big deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 11 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That should make for a fresh flow in the rivers. Hope it's not too fresh. Other than the gas pumps at Irving (not their convenience store), none of the five businesses in the Farmington intervale have reopened since the Dec 18 flood. I was looking forward to trying the new Giffords' ice cream flavors there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 8 hours ago, WinterWolf said: But All we hear is Morch 12 though? yeah I guess. I'm not really part of that banter battle, tho. Just a relaying the chart trajectories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Models had a convective look. No big deal. Just stop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 There's a d(mass field) perturbation event about to unfold through our side of the hemisphere - not sure it is H.A. qualitative. In fact, it is not in any objective sense of what that statistical science concluded. "H.A. events," as they've been denoted since the publication some 30 years ago ... were focused in +d(PNA) - switching mode from negative --> positive. The paper does not discuss switching mode from positive --> negative. There was also explicitly stated that there was a weaker ( vague skill ) correlation when moving +d(NAO) - switching it's mode from negative to positive. In principle, any time there is a large mass field distortion, that "probably" qualifies as a period of interest. Events of any kind in the natural geophysical environment only happen at all because a state of rest enters a non-state of rest - such is the case when disturbing the quiescent state of the field being observed. You disrupt, there's an attempt to restore, and the storm happens as consequence. From that I am not completely opposed to the idea. But a +PNA --> -PNA with a rising EPO isn't technically covered in that, which has become both a seminal paper but often misused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: There's a d(mass field) perturbation event about to unfold through our side of the hemisphere - not sure it is H.A. qualitative. In fact, it is not in any objective sense of what that statistical science concluded. "H.A. events," as they've been denoted since the publication some 30 years ago ... were focused in +d(PNA) - switching mode from negative --> positive. The paper does not discuss switching mode from positive --> negative. There was also explicitly stated that there was a weaker ( vague skill ) correlation when moving +d(NAO) - switching it's mode from negative to positive. In principle, any time there is a large mass field distortion, that "probably" qualifies as a period of interest. Events of any kind in the natural geophysical environment only happen at all because a state of rest enters a non-state of rest - such was a disturbing the quiescent state of the field being observed. You disrupt, there's an attempt to restore, and the storm happens as consequence. From that I am not completely opposed to the idea. But a +PNA --> -PNA with a rising EPO isn't technically covered in that, which has become both a seminal paper, but oft misused. Something huge is coming. Mega rains . Triple phaser not out of the question. Seen this play before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Just stop They did. Hopefully you can rebuild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Might even be a rumble this aftn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 9 hours ago, WinterWolf said: But All we hear is Morch 12 though? We just had the warmest March 1-16 ever. But yeah, the 2nd half will be cooler especially compared to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might even be a rumble this aftn. yeah, a thunderstorm to demarcate the seasonal change into winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: We just had the warmest March 1-16 ever. But yeah, the 2nd half will be cooler especially compared to average. 2nd to 2016 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 2nd to 2016 here. I guess…just going by that regional wide map posted. The point is we got the first half of April during the first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 2nd to 2016 here. All of March/ of course 2024 ain't done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Steve what location is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Just now, dendrite said: I guess…just going by that regional wide map posted. The point is we got the first half of April during the first half of March. No argument at all. Super warm start. Wish it would roll right on but alas those cute pop up plants gonna freeze their little tushes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Just now, dendrite said: Steve what location is that? IJD and BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: I guess…just going by that regional wide map posted. The point is we got the first half of April during the first half of March. And I'm so impatient that if we got this "last two weeks," during the first half of April, it'd be inching me closer to pulling the trigger on a relo to San Diego ... or Frisco or Tuscany. Anywhere of some less rectal glue spring climate ... But looking at those grid of numbers he posted, I think it's more amazing that the top 20 in history have all happened since 1999 - the last 25 years. 25 years, vs, any time since Industrial farting white man stole the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Have a ton of annuals coming up and hydrangea leafing out. Hope this cold modifies. A few days in the 40s won’t be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Have a ton of annuals coming up and hydrangea leafing out. Hope this cold modifies. A few days in the 40s won’t be bad. Violence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Violence? It was only visual. Although this weather may bring our violence for you to deal with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Have a ton of annuals coming up and hydrangea leafing out. Hope this cold modifies. A few days in the 40s won’t be bad. Hostas popped out but Hydrangeas nada.Throw some black plastic over them. 20s will not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Hostas popped out but Hydrangeas nada.Throw some black plastic over them. 20s will not be good. My hydrangeas are in a sunny area and pop a little early. Last year they got zapped in Feb and had no blossoms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 9 hours ago, WinterWolf said: But All we hear is Morch 12 though? I know bad analog it actually snowed in Morch 2012 and wasn’t as warm as this March through March 17th. It’s all a dream starting this week though as we go back to reality, still holding out hope for more RAM truck pics and 60s the last few week of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I know bad analog it actually snowed in Morch 2012 and wasn’t as warm as this March through March 17th. It’s all a dream starting this week though as we go back to reality, still holding out hope for more RAM truck pics and 60s the last few week of the month. 6z Euro has snow flying Thursday 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 If that STS that some models show off the Carolinas next week were to happen, this would be the year, right? I mean, with the forecasts being as bullish as they are for the upcoming hurricane season. If we can get a Category 2 in March in 1908, then why can't we get a mere STS in March 2024? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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