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2024-2025 La Nina


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This is a strong +NAO for the next 7 days. It's the first time I've seen solid negative anomalies at 500mb in a while. I have to wonder if recent sun spikes are fueling the +nao, because it is a bit of an anomaly in the larger picture. Models also didn't pick up on it in the long range, only when it came close to happening recently.  We have seen NAO's trend more + in shorter modeled time periods, since the Winter. 

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3-4 years after a Strong El Nino (23-24), we see a tendency for Positive, over Negative, ENSO events. 

6/16 (39%) of the years were El Nino. 

7/16 (43%) of the years were Neutral. 

3/16 (18%) of the years were La Nina. 

2/3 of the La Nina's were after switch-overs right after the Strong El Nino's to Strong La Nina's (-2.0, -1.6). 

The 1 year that was a La Nina during the +3-4 year time, was the anomalous event of 95-96, where the subsurface was Neutral for the event, and the N. Pacific held a strong +PNA. 

So, if this La Nina doesn't go high-moderate or Strong, we may have a greater than average chance to have a positive-ENSO conditions for 26-27 and 27-28, than negative-ENSO. 

 

Year +5 was 4/7 El Nino's, 2/7 Neutral, and 1/7 La Nina. So +3-5 years after a Strong El Nino, we have 10/23 El Nino's, 9/23 Neutral, and 4/23 La Nina's. 

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9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Solar Max has a slight El Nino correlation, but it's less than +0.12.gif

 

I think the last Strong Nina during Solar max happened 1998-2000. 

There is a theory that solar max actually supports Nina’s and solar min supports Ninos.
 

Why? Solar max = more radiation and UV heating the surface/troposphere = stronger trade winds = La Niña. Solar min = less radiation and UV heating the surface/troposphere = weaker trade winds = El Niño 

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Strong el ninos and 3-4 year aftermath (+ Year 5 if 3/4 are not strong el ninos)

Bolded are years where strong el nino -> strong la nina transitions happened

1957-58: ENSO neutral, ENSO neutral (Year 5: ENSO neutral)

1965-66: Moderate el nino, weak el nino (Year 5: moderate la nina)

1972-73: Strong la nina, moderate el nino (Year 5: moderate el nino)

1982-83: ENSO neutral, moderate el nino (Year 5: strong el nino)

1987-88: ENSO neutral, strong el nino

1991-92: Moderate el nino, moderate la nina (Year 5: ENSO neutral)

1997-98: Weak la nina, neutral (Year 5: moderate el nino)

2009-10: ENSO neutral, ENSO neutral (Year 5: weak el nino)

2015-16: Weak el nino, maybe weak el nino (Year 5: moderate la nina)

Year 3 aftermaths: 2/9 moderate el nino, 1/9 weak el nino, 4/9 ENSO neutral, 1/9 weak la nina, 1/9 strong la nina

Year 4 aftermaths: 1/9 strong el nino, 2/9 moderate el nino, 5/9 weak el nino/ENSO neutral, 1/9 moderate la nina

Year 5 aftermaths (exclude 1992-93): 1/8 strong el nino, 2/8 moderate el nino, 1/8 weak el nino, 2/8 ENSO neutral, 2/8 moderate la nina

FWIW, the 1991-92 and 2009-10 Year 6 aftermaths resulted in the super el ninos of 1997-98 and 2015-16.

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Support is growing for MJO convection moving into the Maritime Continent, which is favorable for La Niña strengthening going into July. This would increase trade wind bursts/EWBs and raise the SOI. Just looking at the overall synoptic picture, everything else (tropical instability waves, -PDO, -PMM, high pressure building in the North Pacific, IOD taking on a negative signature) is favorable for continued Niña development
 

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8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Solar Max has a slight El Nino correlation, but it's less than +0.12.gif

 

I think the last Strong Nina during Solar max happened 1998-2000. 

Thank you.   I read that theory that @snowman19 said, but it was late last night and wasn't sure if it was true.  There was a chart posted, but didn't trust it.

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On 6/20/2024 at 10:48 PM, snowman19 said:

There is a theory that solar max actually supports Nina’s and solar min supports Ninos.
 

Why? Solar max = more radiation and UV heating the surface/troposphere = stronger trade winds = La Niña. Solar min = less radiation and UV heating the surface/troposphere = weaker trade winds = El Niño 

Man, your posts have been really good past couple of years.

Great stuff...thanks. I didn't know that.

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20 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Quick Update on Subsurface via TAO with hovmolllers about over the same time period. Does look like  we finally are starting to see possibilities of enhanced trades over the central and eastern Pac as mentioned early.

ezgif.com-animated-gif-maker (12).gif

u.total.30.5S-5N.gif

Great stuff as always. I know you are also of the opinion that if this La Niña “gets going” and it appears that it is now, it should have no problem going moderate. From what I see, it appears that we are definitely all systems go into July

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34 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Quick Update on Subsurface via TAO with hovmolllers about over the same time period. Does look like  we finally are starting to see possibilities of enhanced trades over the central and eastern Pac as mentioned early.

ezgif.com-animated-gif-maker (12).gif

 

Why did the upper 50m anoms E of 135W warm so much June 3-19 (up to +2 to +3+ from <0)?

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55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Why did the upper 50m anoms E of 135W warm so much June 3-19 (up to +2 to +3+ from <0)?

My guess is due to the WWB event that took place through late May. You can see that trades weakened quite a bit during that time giving a very Nino like response to the ocean. Most sources see that warming that occurred not quite to the levels of TAO and CPC T depths did warm a little at the surface. That should erode rather quickly if we do indeed see trades strengthen coming up here into early July.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Great stuff as always. I know you are also of the opinion that if this La Niña “gets going” and it appears that it is now, it should have no problem going moderate. From what I see, it appears that we are definitely all systems go into July

Yea it is still early yet I do wonder still how strong we get though. The Subsurface looks to be warming up again toward the WPAC so it would seem maybe a quick blip into Nina territory. If I had to take a guess this early I would say we could push to -1 to -1.1 area with ONI just not sure it will last all too long yet. Gotta wait to see if the trades do enhance quite a bit.

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2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea it is still early yet I do wonder still how strong we get though. The Subsurface looks to be warming up again toward the WPAC so it would seem maybe a quick blip into Nina territory. If I had to take a guess this early I would say we could push to -1 to -1.1 area with ONI just not sure it will last all too long yet. Gotta wait to see if the trades do enhance quite a bit.

I think once the enhanced trades get going we see pretty substantial upwelling and cooling. This burst coming up looks like it means business. But yea, watch and see for now

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1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

My guess is due to the WWB event that took place through late May. You can see that trades weakened quite a bit during that time giving a very Nino like response to the ocean. Most sources see that warming that occurred not quite to the levels of TAO and CPC T depths did warm a little at the surface. That should erode rather quickly if we do indeed see trades strengthen coming up here into early July.

3.4 anoms have warmed 0.4 the last week to ~+0.4 meaning RONI has likely risen from~-0.5/-0.6 to ~-0.1/-0.2:

IMG_9802.png.7083dc6ecc9b56d677efe86bc3a08a1a.png

 

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36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

3.4 anoms have warmed 0.4 the last week to ~+0.4 meaning RONI has likely risen from~-0.5/-0.6 to ~-0.1/-0.2:

IMG_9802.png.7083dc6ecc9b56d677efe86bc3a08a1a.png

 

Just keep in mind that this is before the projected easterly wind burst which would cause upwelling and cooling 

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Another pretty cold June day here. Only 72 or so at 1 pm.

It's actually been very cold this month in Western Canada. I'm curious to see if that will hold and continue building as we get closer to the winter. If nothing else, it favors some early season cold shots that are stronger than average if it persists. I believe June 2020 was also pretty cold in Western Canada. There were obviously some pretty incredible cold pushes in the Fall of 2020.

Screenshot-2024-06-22-12-56-23-PM

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4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea it is still early yet I do wonder still how strong we get though. The Subsurface looks to be warming up again toward the WPAC so it would seem maybe a quick blip into Nina territory. If I had to take a guess this early I would say we could push to -1 to -1.1 area with ONI just not sure it will last all too long yet. Gotta wait to see if the trades do enhance quite a bit.

I think it is very debatable whether the ONI peaks moderate or weak, but I don't think its very debatable that the atmospheric response will not be weak....the inverse of what we saw last season, whereas ENSO was out of sync with the extratropical atmosphere. 

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The ensembles are still suggesting a very strong high pressure regime setting up over the North PAC, if this is correct, it would support strong trade winds going into July with obvious ENSO effects and also supports continuation of the strong -PDO…..

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The ensembles are still suggesting a very strong high pressure regime setting up over the North PAC, if this is correct, it would support strong trade winds going into July with obvious ENSO effects and also supports continuation of the strong -PDO…..

Zero question that the coming winter season will once again feature a substantial -PDO.

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