2024-2025 La Nina

[LibertyBell]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems like you have arrived at this from 2010 and 1995......there are plenty that suck. 1998-1999 sucked, 1983-1984 was okay..nothing special. 1973-1974 sucked. 2005-2006 was meh...1964-1965 was pretty mediocre and 1954-1955 sucked. The only real good ones were 2010 and 1995.

I think 2020-21 also fits this example, although less so than the examples you listed.

2005-06 was meh, but we did have a December storm and the... "HECS" in February. 40" in NYC.

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do not agree with that. It will get taken care of naturtally....not saying immediately. I could def. see next winter sucking...don't get me wrong.

If next year sucks as badly as the previous two, it could be the worst 3 year stretch in recorded history (at least for NYC and maybe BOS too?)

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Will have to see exactly when the peak is....we  may sneak in one more winter before the solar wind and electromagnetic energy kicks up.

We need to see what the ACE is, too....while a huge ACE doesn't guarantee a great winter, its never lead to a horrific one, either.

Just curious, what are your early thoughts on ENSO strength and structure for next winter? 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems like you have arrived at this from 2010 and 1995......there are plenty that suck. 1998-1999 sucked, 1983-1984 was okay..nothing special. 1973-1974 sucked. 2005-2006 was meh...1964-1965 was pretty mediocre and 1954-1955 sucked. The only real good ones were 2010 and 1995.

 Most were nothing special in the SE, too, and thus I’m not optimistic at this point, especially in this day and age. Also, El Niño is what gets me excited more than anything by a good margin and especially those following La Niña. If it is going to be La Niña, I’ll pull for a weak to low end moderate one as they have a better chance of being cold than stronger ones in the SE. For example, though not immediately following El Niño, 1917-8 (cold and wintry precip in Dec/Jan)and 2017-8 (cold Jan, snow in Dec/Jan) were great.

 But, are you familiar with 1903-4? In addition to 1995-6 and 2010-1, 1903-4 was quite a cold winter in much of the E US to Midwest. In addition, Boston got 72.9” of snow, the heaviest between 1890-1 and 1914-5. For the SE, I’ve got 1903-4 and 2010-1 standing out as cold La Niña winters following El Niño. 1902-3 was a strong Nino and 1903-4 was a WEAK Niña. I’ll give 1964-5 an honorable mention for snow though temps were near normal:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’d want to see wholesale changes in the pacific and for those marine heatwaves to cease before thinking anyone east of the rockies get a snowy winter. At least the PDO has been less negative recently, but I’d want to see it firmly in positive territory. 

I guess it's jumping way ahead, but snowy Winters in the great lakes and upper midwest are common in la nina's. And with an active storm track we certainly don't need a cold winter, just not the crap we had most of this winter. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems like you have arrived at this from 2010 and 1995......there are plenty that suck. 1998-1999 sucked, 1983-1984 was okay..nothing special. 1973-1974 sucked. 2005-2006 was meh...1964-1965 was pretty mediocre and 1954-1955 sucked. The only real good ones were 2010 and 1995.

Different story here. Liberty is correct in that most Nina's following ninos are decent snow wise. There are some exceptions, but the majority are decent. In fact, of the ones you listed, the only clunker snow seasons here were 1954-55 and 1995-96.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, George001 said:

Just curious, what are your early thoughts on ENSO strength and structure for next winter? 

Just a guess....so Raindance, please don't bump this in October and quote me on it......weak to moderate La Nina. Structure...no clue, but early guidance I have seen looked basin-wide ish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think 2020-21 also fits this example, although less so than the examples you listed.

2005-06 was meh, but we did have a December storm and the... "HECS" in February. 40" in NYC.

It was like 16" in my area...run of the mill. It was epic for Hartford and NYC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Different story here. Liberty is correct in that most Nina's following ninos are decent snow wise. There are some exceptions, but the majority are decent. In fact, of the ones you listed, the only clunker snow seasons here were 1954-55 and 1995-96.

Well, yea....a great winter for you probably sucks on the east coast and vice versa.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was like 16" in my area...run of the mill. It was epic for Hartford and NYC.

The funny thing was-- being about 20 miles east of Central Park, it was only 13 inches here, about half of what Central Park had.

I don't know if you remember the event in April that year, but that actually had higher snowfall rates here than the February storm did.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, yea....a great winter for you probably sucks on the east coast and vice versa.

I wonder how well he did in 2002-03.... that's such an underrated winter that did well for a lot of people.

PD2 was also extremely underrated, rarely do you see a storm dump over 2 feet of snow in Baltimore, JFK AND BOSTON.

Those kind of widespread snowstorms seem to have become an endangered species.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I wonder how well he did in 2002-03.... that's such an underrated winter that did well for a lot of people.

PD2 was also extremely underrated, rarely do you see a storm dump over 2 feet of snow in Baltimore, JFK AND BOSTON.

 

 

I was thinking of that season as a possible exception where we both did well.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was thinking of that season as a possible exception where we both did well.

That's what was special about PD2 and 2002-03 was snowy right from December through April.

A throwback winter just like 1995-96 (which from what I remember was also exceptional in the Midwest and East Coast.  We all had a "return to winter" arctic shot in February that was historic.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

If someone put a gun to my head, which some east coast weenie may after my past couple of Outlooks....our pathway out of this Pacific origin multi winter purgatory in the east is hurricanes. Uber activity in the Atlantic AND west PAC...just bombard the shit out of that stable ocean configuration and attendant subtropical ridge via an immense amount of upwelling and heat transport.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If someone put a gun to my head, which some east coast weenie may after my past couple of Outlooks....our pathway out of this Pacific origin multi winter purgatory in the east is hurricanes. Uber activity in the Atlantic AND west PAC...just bombard the shit out of that stable ocean configuration and attendant subtropical ridge via an immense amount of upwelling and heat transport.

Interesting take. That may be what it takes to dissipate these marine heat waves. Hopefully we can do that without too much collateral damage.

[raindancewx]

Minneapolis has been super warm this winter. If you roll forward their six warmest El Nino winters this is what you get. Pretty much what I imagine for a La Nina Modoki look, even without limiting the roll forward years to La Ninas. Still, that's a much colder winter than 2023-24.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Minneapolis has been super warm this winter. If you roll forward their six warmest El Nino winters this is what you get. Pretty much what I imagine for a La Nina Modoki look, even without limiting the roll forward years to La Ninas. Still, that's a much colder winter than 2023-24.

The only one of those that really blows here is 1998-1999.

[Snowstorms]

On 2/15/2024 at 8:39 AM, LibertyBell said:

Thanks.... Do you think Mitchnick is right in his thinking that we need a very strong la nina to entirely change the pacific pattern?

We haven't had a strong La Nina since 2010-11 despite seeing a multi-year Nina recently. So maybe it could. Things certainly changed since the 2015-16 super Nino which may have led to a warming effect across the entire pacific. 80% of the winter months (DJF) since 2015-16 have finished above average for most of us. 

I don't think the -PDO is the primary driver of this warmth. The PDO was ~75% negative from 1998-2014 and we saw plenty of cold winters (2000-01, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14) and some featured incredibly cold winter months (i.e., Jan 2000, Jan 2004, Feb 2007). And during the last -PDO phase from 1948-1978, we saw plenty of cold winters. 

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, yea....a great winter for you probably sucks on the east coast and vice versa.

 

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder how well he did in 2002-03.... that's such an underrated winter that did well for a lot of people.

PD2 was also extremely underrated, rarely do you see a storm dump over 2 feet of snow in Baltimore, JFK AND BOSTON.

Those kind of widespread snowstorms seem to have become an endangered species.

 

 

 

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was thinking of that season as a possible exception where we both did well.

Funny you mention 2002-03. I was born in 1983, so that was my 20th winter, and at that time, it was my favorite! I recorded 66.9" of snow, the snowiest of my life to date. DTW had 60.9". Growing up in mostly subpar 90s winters, 2002-03 was a huge shock for me. And I agree with Liberty, it IS underrated, even by my own self, because while it really took the spotlight, it was quickly overshadowed by 2004-05, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14.

 

As for great/crappy winters, Ive noticed that being in eastern MI it can really go either way, which is why though I primarily frequent the lakes forum, I often pop into New England/NYC as well to read discussions (& comment when I feel like it lol). During a particularly good (or bad) winter in the midwest, we can either be on the eastern fringe of that pattern and blend in with the rest of the midwest, OR we can more mimick the eastern pattern and differ from the rest of the midwest (2002-03 & 2004-05 are good examples of this). The same for the east, we can be on the western fringe of that pattern & more closely mimick the east, or we could blend in with the rest of the midwest. Plus add in the unknown of the lake influence. We are not in the lake belt, but we do get influence from the lake in terms of enhancing some shortwaves and of course SOME pure lake effect. So really, sometimes Michigan feels like its own region for weather.

 

I decided to look at the top 30 snowiest/least snowy winters for both Detroit & Boston since the overall snow average is very similar (both are at all time highs in the last 30-year record period, which will likely go down some the next one). While the snow climo is similar, Boston can be a bit more feast or famine. Its not as comprehensive as analyzing every winter, but it definitely goes to show the variety.

DTW POR avg (1880-2023)- 40.9” --- 1991-2020 avg- 45.0”
BOS POR avg (1890-2023)- 42.7” --- 1991-2020 avg- 49.2”

Low snow winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons bottom 30:
1918-19: DTW #4 (15.2”) – BOS #19 (21.1”)
1931-32: DTW #24 (26.2”) – BOS #13 (18.4”)
1936-37: DTW #1 (12.9”) – BOS #1 (9.0”)
1941-42: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #25 (23.9”)
1954-55: DTW #30 (27.3”) – BOS #28 (25.1”)
1979-80: DTW #28 (26.9”) – BOS #5 (12.5”)
1988-89: DTW #20 (25.1”) – BOS #8 (15.5”)
1997-98: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #29 (25.6”)
1999-00: DTW #18 (23.7”) – BOS #26 (24.4”)
2011-12: DTW #23 (26.0”) – BOS #2 (9.3”)

Snowy winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons top 30:
1892-93: DTW #18 (59.9”) – BOS #15 (66.0”)
1898-99: DTW #17 (60.2”) – BOS #12 (70.9”)
1903-04: DTW #21 (57.0”) – BOS #11 (72.9”)
1922-23: DTW #22 (56.9”) – BOS #16 (65.9”)
1977-78: DTW #13 (61.7”) – BOS #6 (85.1”)
1981-82: DTW #4 (74.0”) – BOS #22 (61.8”)
1992-93: DTW #29 (52.2”) – BOS #7 (83.9”)
2002-03: DTW #15 (60.9”) – BOS #12 (70.9”)
2004-05: DTW #11 (63.8”) – BOS #5 (86.6”)
2008-09: DTW #10 (65.7”) – BOS #16 (65.9”)
2010-11: DTW #6 (69.1”) – BOS #8 (81.0”)
2013-14: DTW #1 (94.9”) – BOS #28 (58.9”)
2017-18: DTW #14 (61.0”) – BOS #26 (59.9”)

Winters that made the top or bottom 30 on OPPOSITE LISTS for Detroit & Boston
1899-00: DTW #6 most (69.1”) – BOS #28 least (25.0”)
1944-45: DTW #21 least (25.8”) – BOS #27 most (59.2”)
1947-48: DTW #26 least (26.6”) – BOS #4 most (89.2”)
1960-61: DTW #9 least (18.0”) – BOS #23 most (61.5”)
1985-86: DTW #27 most (54.2”) – BOS #13 least (18.1”)
 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

 

Funny you mention 2002-03. I was born in 1983, so that was my 20th winter, and at that time, it was my favorite! I recorded 66.9" of snow, the snowiest of my life to date. DTW had 60.9". Growing up in mostly subpar 90s winters, 2002-03 was a huge shock for me. And I agree with Liberty, it IS underrated, even by my own self, because while it really took the spotlight, it was quickly overshadowed by 2004-05, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14.

 

As for great/crappy winters, Ive noticed that being in eastern MI it can really go either way, which is why though I primarily frequent the lakes forum, I often pop into New England/NYC as well to read discussions (& comment when I feel like it lol). During a particularly good (or bad) winter in the midwest, we can either be on the eastern fringe of that pattern and blend in with the rest of the midwest, OR we can more mimick the eastern pattern and differ from the rest of the midwest (2002-03 & 2004-05 are good examples of this). The same for the east, we can be on the western fringe of that pattern & more closely mimick the east, or we could blend in with the rest of the midwest. Plus add in the unknown of the lake influence. We are not in the lake belt, but we do get influence from the lake in terms of enhancing some shortwaves and of course SOME pure lake effect. So really, sometimes Michigan feels like its own region for weather.

 

I decided to look at the top 30 snowiest/least snowy winters for both Detroit & Boston since the overall snow average is very similar (both are at all time highs in the last 30-year record period, which will likely go down some the next one). While the snow climo is similar, Boston can be a bit more feast or famine. Its not as comprehensive as analyzing every winter, but it definitely goes to show the variety.

DTW POR avg (1880-2023)- 40.9” --- 1991-2020 avg- 45.0”
BOS POR avg (1890-2023)- 42.7” --- 1991-2020 avg- 49.2”

Low snow winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons bottom 30:
1918-19: DTW #4 (15.2”) – BOS #19 (21.1”)
1931-32: DTW #24 (26.2”) – BOS #13 (18.4”)
1936-37: DTW #1 (12.9”) – BOS #1 (9.0”)
1941-42: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #25 (23.9”)
1954-55: DTW #30 (27.3”) – BOS #28 (25.1”)
1979-80: DTW #28 (26.9”) – BOS #5 (12.5”)
1988-89: DTW #20 (25.1”) – BOS #8 (15.5”)
1997-98: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #29 (25.6”)
1999-00: DTW #18 (23.7”) – BOS #26 (24.4”)
2011-12: DTW #23 (26.0”) – BOS #2 (9.3”)

Snowy winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons top 30:
1892-93: DTW #18 (59.9”) – BOS #15 (66.0”)
1898-99: DTW #17 (60.2”) – BOS #12 (70.9”)
1903-04: DTW #21 (57.0”) – BOS #11 (72.9”)
1922-23: DTW #22 (56.9”) – BOS #16 (65.9”)
1977-78: DTW #13 (61.7”) – BOS #6 (85.1”)
1981-82: DTW #4 (74.0”) – BOS #22 (61.8”)
1992-93: DTW #29 (52.2”) – BOS #7 (83.9”)
2002-03: DTW #15 (60.9”) – BOS #12 (70.9”)
2004-05: DTW #11 (63.8”) – BOS #5 (86.6”)
2008-09: DTW #10 (65.7”) – BOS #16 (65.9”)
2010-11: DTW #6 (69.1”) – BOS #8 (81.0”)
2013-14: DTW #1 (94.9”) – BOS #28 (58.9”)
2017-18: DTW #14 (61.0”) – BOS #26 (59.9”)

Winters that made the top or bottom 30 on OPPOSITE LISTS for Detroit & Boston
1899-00: DTW #6 most (69.1”) – BOS #28 least (25.0”)
1944-45: DTW #21 least (25.8”) – BOS #27 most (59.2”)
1947-48: DTW #26 least (26.6”) – BOS #4 most (89.2”)
1960-61: DTW #9 least (18.0”) – BOS #23 most (61.5”)
1985-86: DTW #27 most (54.2”) – BOS #13 least (18.1”)
 

 

 

Sometimes in an active N strema year, the N steam goods can get you en route to the phase at the coast...probably what happened in years like 77, 04, 08, 10, 13 and 17

[Snowstorms]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sometimes in an active N strema year, the N steam goods can get you en route to the phase at the coast...probably what happened in years like 77, 04, 08, 10, 13 and 17

The February 2013 storm is a prime example of this. Clipper and coastal phase due to an active N stream. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

The February 2013 storm is a prime example of this. Clipper and coastal phase due to an active N stream. 

I think in '02, it was so cold and the S stream so immense that it just encompassed the entire eastern half of the US....kind of the warm ENSO cousin of 1995.

[michsnowfreak]

I broke down Modoki La Ninas at Detroit, since Ive heard it may be Modoki. But I also want to look at 1st year Nina and Nino-Nina transitions to look for any trends. Main trend I see is, for a change, December is our friend.

 

MODOKI LA NINAS                 
           Oct  Nov   Dec   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr  May  Tot
1973–1974   0   0.1  16.4  14.1  11.2   5.7   1.7   0   49.2
1975–1976   0   6.5  19.8  15.1   4.9   7.5   2.1   0   55.9
1983–1984   0   3.5  19.9   9.9   8.7   9.7   0.1   0   51.8
1988–1989   T   1.0   6.3   5.3   9.6   2.4   0.5   T   25.1
1998–1999   0    0    1.2  27.3   7.8  13.2    0    0   49.5
2000–2001   T   1.3  25.1   3.4   2.9   5.4   0.9   0   39.0
2008–2009   0   2.2  21.4  25.2   8.5   1.0   7.4   0   65.7
2010–2011   0    T    9.3  17.9  31.7   8.6   1.6   0   69.1
2016–2017   0   0.1  16.8  11.8   2.2   6.9   0.1   0   37.9

Avg         0   1.6  15.1  14.4   9.7   6.7   1.6   0   49.2
1991-20 avg T   1.9   8.9  13.9  12.2   6.2   1.5   0   45.0

 

[raindancewx]

If you can imagine the US on a wheel, with the point centered on Kansas, the basic idea for next winter at this point would be to rotate all of the warm/average spots by 90 degrees clockwise, with the warmth thinning out.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On 2/15/2024 at 9:06 AM, so_whats_happening said:

I would love to see shipping lanes overlayed on SST anomaly maps in both the Atlantic and Pacific to see if that reduction in sulfur really is playing a large role in these regions. Also bathymetry is tough subject but I am curious if there is indeed something in the subsurface in these regions helping to enhance the oceanic heatwaves more than just stuck patterns.

Joe Bastardi thinks volcanoes.  I don't know why he think subsea volcanism is suddenly up the last couple of decades.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

 

Funny you mention 2002-03. I was born in 1983, so that was my 20th winter, and at that time, it was my favorite! I recorded 66.9" of snow, the snowiest of my life to date. DTW had 60.9". Growing up in mostly subpar 90s winters, 2002-03 was a huge shock for me. And I agree with Liberty, it IS underrated, even by my own self, because while it really took the spotlight, it was quickly overshadowed by 2004-05, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14.

 

As for great/crappy winters, Ive noticed that being in eastern MI it can really go either way, which is why though I primarily frequent the lakes forum, I often pop into New England/NYC as well to read discussions (& comment when I feel like it lol). During a particularly good (or bad) winter in the midwest, we can either be on the eastern fringe of that pattern and blend in with the rest of the midwest, OR we can more mimick the eastern pattern and differ from the rest of the midwest (2002-03 & 2004-05 are good examples of this). The same for the east, we can be on the western fringe of that pattern & more closely mimick the east, or we could blend in with the rest of the midwest. Plus add in the unknown of the lake influence. We are not in the lake belt, but we do get influence from the lake in terms of enhancing some shortwaves and of course SOME pure lake effect. So really, sometimes Michigan feels like its own region for weather.

 

I decided to look at the top 30 snowiest/least snowy winters for both Detroit & Boston since the overall snow average is very similar (both are at all time highs in the last 30-year record period, which will likely go down some the next one). While the snow climo is similar, Boston can be a bit more feast or famine. Its not as comprehensive as analyzing every winter, but it definitely goes to show the variety.

DTW POR avg (1880-2023)- 40.9” --- 1991-2020 avg- 45.0”
BOS POR avg (1890-2023)- 42.7” --- 1991-2020 avg- 49.2”

Low snow winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons bottom 30:
1918-19: DTW #4 (15.2”) – BOS #19 (21.1”)
1931-32: DTW #24 (26.2”) – BOS #13 (18.4”)
1936-37: DTW #1 (12.9”) – BOS #1 (9.0”)
1941-42: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #25 (23.9”)
1954-55: DTW #30 (27.3”) – BOS #28 (25.1”)
1979-80: DTW #28 (26.9”) – BOS #5 (12.5”)
1988-89: DTW #20 (25.1”) – BOS #8 (15.5”)
1997-98: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #29 (25.6”)
1999-00: DTW #18 (23.7”) – BOS #26 (24.4”)
2011-12: DTW #23 (26.0”) – BOS #2 (9.3”)

Snowy winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons top 30:
1892-93: DTW #18 (59.9”) – BOS #15 (66.0”)
1898-99: DTW #17 (60.2”) – BOS #12 (70.9”)
1903-04: DTW #21 (57.0”) – BOS #11 (72.9”)
1922-23: DTW #22 (56.9”) – BOS #16 (65.9”)
1977-78: DTW #13 (61.7”) – BOS #6 (85.1”)
1981-82: DTW #4 (74.0”) – BOS #22 (61.8”)
1992-93: DTW #29 (52.2”) – BOS #7 (83.9”)
2002-03: DTW #15 (60.9”) – BOS #12 (70.9”)
2004-05: DTW #11 (63.8”) – BOS #5 (86.6”)
2008-09: DTW #10 (65.7”) – BOS #16 (65.9”)
2010-11: DTW #6 (69.1”) – BOS #8 (81.0”)
2013-14: DTW #1 (94.9”) – BOS #28 (58.9”)
2017-18: DTW #14 (61.0”) – BOS #26 (59.9”)

Winters that made the top or bottom 30 on OPPOSITE LISTS for Detroit & Boston
1899-00: DTW #6 most (69.1”) – BOS #28 least (25.0”)
1944-45: DTW #21 least (25.8”) – BOS #27 most (59.2”)
1947-48: DTW #26 least (26.6”) – BOS #4 most (89.2”)
1960-61: DTW #9 least (18.0”) – BOS #23 most (61.5”)
1985-86: DTW #27 most (54.2”) – BOS #13 least (18.1”)
 

 

 

I forgot about 2010-11 that was another great winter that was amazing for a large part of the country, though not as good farther south as 2002-03 was.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 2/15/2024 at 11:49 AM, LibertyBell said:

I think 2020-21 also fits this example, although less so than the examples you listed.

2005-06 was meh, but we did have a December storm and the... "HECS" in February. 40" in NYC.

2019-2020 was technically neutral and 2020-2021 wasn't that snowy in New England.

[George001]

Early signs are for a very active high ACE hurricane season. Early developing Niña + the unusually warm Atlantic is making me think this hurricane season will be extreme. 

[mitchnick]

On 2/15/2024 at 8:39 AM, LibertyBell said:

Thanks.... Do you think Mitchnick is right in his thinking that we need a very strong la nina to entirely change the pacific pattern?

 

On 2/15/2024 at 8:41 AM, Terpeast said:

Not if the west pac warm pool and seas off Japan remain boiling. And a strong nina will just concentrate warm waters in the MC

My thinking was more to get rid of the warmth in the western Pac ex Japan. Look at the Cansips, for example. It's the only model that goes out to January, 2025 I believe. Look how the equatorial waters around and north of Australia, including the IO, have cooled vs now. Heck, even the Atlantic basin isn't that unusually warm on the whole.

I certainly can't know if the Cansips is correct, but I think it's at least a start of a way out or enough cooling to make a difference. 

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2019-2020 was technically neutral and 2020-2021 wasn't that snowy in New England.

2020-21 was basically an average temperature and snow season here (a few inches above thanks to a crazy April 21st snowfall). But it was the product mostly of an excellent cold, snowy February. Which is another subjective thing. If you're going to do an "average" winter, is it better to coast all the way through with a well dispersed winter, or better to have some bad periods and some great periods cancel each other out?

 

2005-06 had a postcard perfect thanksgiving to christmas period with lots of cold and snow but the rest of the winter sucked.

 

This is another reason I'm intrigued for a la nina for '24-25. The risk of a snowy December is much higher than climo here. Which would be extra sweet with quite a few shitty Decembers lately. Not sure how it translates in new england, but I do recall a few nina winters that front-loaded favored the Midwest & Lakes and back-loaded fvored the East Coast & New England, but not sure if those were the exception or the rule.