CheeselandSkies Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 And of course, 0Z HRRR now cap busts SE IA despite a pretty sexy parameter space. I don't necessarily buy it given how much forcing ought to be present, but not exactly what I was hoping to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 And of course, 0Z HRRR now cap busts SE IA despite a pretty sexy parameter space. I don't give it a whole lot of credence given how much forcing ought to be present, but not exactly what I was hoping to see.I wouldn’t call it a cap bust. Early precip is screwing up the heating and probably leading to some subsidence as well. Temps don’t rebound out of the 60s behind that initial band. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 1 minute ago, mnchaserguy said: I wouldn’t call it a cap bust. Early precip is screwing up the heating and probably leading to some subsidence as well. Temps don’t rebound out of the 60s behind that initial band. . True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 We'll have to closely watch both convective lines for supercells and tornadoes, and wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 45 minutes ago, Chinook said: We'll have to closely watch both convective lines for supercells and tornadoes, and wind gusts. Worth a watch, but we will see. So far tonight's event out west seems to be underperforming bigtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 Pretty sharp dry slot pushing into SW IA/NW MO. Not a lot of lingering cirrus behind the first round. HRRR back on board with firing a second round after dropping it for a run here or there (notably the 0Z yesterday evening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 This first round has been notably cellular especially south of the IA/MO state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 FYI, I opened a thread for the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 continuing tornado warning at Winthrop, Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Sneaky marginal risk over SE WI/NE IL/NW IN/W lower MI today.Sent from my Pixel 8 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 blessed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 I'm not in the MRGL contour but t-storms are expected later tonight here from TWN hourlies. Temp will be around 8C windchill of 4. Its evokes last April when I had that potent early morning sub-severe storms with the same temps. Two weeks ago today (Apr 9) I had multiple rounds of storms with a supercell that just clipped me - I had 5 mins of large pea to dime-sized hail with 90 strikes in an very short period of time. The skies were amazing all til sunset as another storm brought some more brief hail around 6:30pm; I can't call forth any memory of this happening since living here in Hanover. Will be among the best active days of 2024, just 24 hours after the total solar eclipse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted Wednesday at 01:39 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:39 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted Wednesday at 02:59 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:59 AM Couple of 1" hail reports in western Lower MI; nothing came of this elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted Wednesday at 05:18 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:18 AM 3 hours ago, frostfern said: You called that pretty good like over an hour in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted Wednesday at 05:57 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:57 AM 22 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: You called that pretty good like over an hour in advance Not really, but thanks. No damage reports, so it was a weak EF0 at best (doubt it gets any confirmation). The hail, well that definitely over-performed. The sun wasn’t even out most of the day so I wasn’t even expecting to hear thunder. It’s impressive to get severe hail with dewpoints in the 40s. It’s more common at high altitudes, like Colorado. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted Wednesday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:38 PM Couple of 1" hail reports in western Lower MI; nothing came of this elsewhere.The pseudo dryline greatly narrowed the risk zone on this side of the lake. Plus the core of 500 mb cold pool lagged enough to limit lapse rates and destabilization east of the dryline. Only had low-mid 60s temps with near/around 50 Td over northeast IL and far NW IN, which yielded 200-300 j/kg MLCAPE. Needed the 500 mb cold pool to lag less and/or temps around 70 to boost MLCAPE and get it done, as the instability we had wasn't enough to balance out the 40-45 kts of effective bulk shear. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted Wednesday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:06 PM 11 hours ago, frostfern said: The hail, well that definitely over-performed. The sun wasn’t even out most of the day so I wasn’t even expecting to hear thunder. It’s impressive to get severe hail with dewpoints in the 40s. It’s more common at high altitudes, like Colorado. I was in thick clouds all day until just before dark when the sun poked through for 30 mins, then I got a regular t-storm with the smallest sized hail briefly by 9pm. This is the 3rd hailer in 2 weeks; wasn't expecting any last night. Quality thunder but only 15 strikes detected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Fatality confirmed from the Winchester IN tornado from 3/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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