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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

More like the Extended products 'baby'. Amazingly they have been advertising it for weeks. 

If this thing happens, that’s certainly the longest lead I’ve ever seen verify for a storm. 

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If this thing happens, that’s certainly the longest lead I’ve ever seen verify for a storm. 

It would be a little crazy. This one better not fizzle. It will be the end of many here. WW is teetering.:mellow:

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Then I'll claim PD as MY baby then! I think he can be the most special baby on the models if he puts his mind to it and NOBODY will tell me otherwise! I'll stay with it till I can't no mo...so may the best baby win :lol:

I believe Ji is the official designator for 'ownership' of storm threats. You need to consult with him.B)

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27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

More like the Extended products 'baby'. Amazingly they have been advertising it for weeks. 

Once I saw the blocking start to go nuts on progs mid Feb it was a matter of timing when it would peak and start to relax some. Adding up all the variables around Feb 22-25 made sense. As we get closer the signal has only gotten stronger. 

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9 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

js out of curiosity are we not worried that nearly all of the gefs members having a storm for 2/24 have a predominant rain storm?

There's alot of above Normal 850s and 2m temps after day 10. No one is really talking about it but it certainly concerns me.

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3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

There's alot of above Normal 850s and 2m temps after day 10. No one is really talking about it but it certainly concerns me.

I suspect it’s partly because of smoothing between cool downs and warm ups, but with a dynamic storm that runs south of us we’ll get mostly snow. I don’t have much confidence in these rainstorm depictions with such a strong blocking episode coming up, so I guess that’s why most mets aren’t talking about it unless they have a warm bias or are panicking.

we could go a couple degrees warmer across the board except when a vort passes south of us, and we’d still snow even (and especially) in late feb early march

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2 hours ago, Jebman said:

We are getting REALLY DESPERATE when we resort to Dr Seuss.

The snow did not fall.
The models had nothing good to say.
So we sat in the house
All that cold, cold, wet Presidents' Day.

I sat there with a @psuhoffman tome,
We sat there, us two.
And I said, "how I wish
There was something we could do!"

Too warm at 850.
And surface temps did not fall.
So we sat in the house.
We did nothing at all.

So all we could do was take the blinds, and
Shit!
Shit!
Shit!
Shit!
And we did not like it.
Not one little bit.

And then a shovel went BUMP!
How that bump made us jump!
We looked!
Then we saw him step in on the mat!
We looked!
And we saw him!
The @Jebman in the hat!

And he said to us,
"Why do you shit the blinds like that?"
I know it is wet
And it's half through Feb-rary.
But fear not, we'll get our snow
So don't commit hari-kari!"

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7 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

 

All we need now is Storm 1 and Storm 2!!

LMAO x 999 decillion lol

We need KU Blizzard 1 and KU Blizzard 2.

We need some Dr. Seuss magic right about now, whip this epic pattern right into shape, give us a couple blizzards that somehow get stalled out in the 40/70 position for the DMV and just keep spinning for days and days while dumping torrential Mammoth magnitude snows. It's high time! The mid atlantic is way overdue, and to hell with the warm base state.

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

GFS and CMC looking less suppressive for PD...(cmc with the biggest change from 12z) Waves are closer to interacting...let's see where this goes.

That it is. Then again, the ns is all over the place with the gfs. Zero confidence in any solution it puts out beyond 180hrs, except that there will be a ss wave deep south

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8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That it is. Then again, the ns is all over the place with the gfs. Zero confidence in any solution it puts out beyond 180hrs

Yep. If we're talking about that interaction, ain't no way we can know for sure. But I would like to see the trend of less suppressed continue...that way we can take our chances on getting a phase.

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