CTWeatherFreak Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For those looking for the NWS snow map online: http://www.erh.noaa....StormTotalSnow/ Thanks for the link! Now lets watch those totals go up!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow at RGEM... This is going to be one wild storm... Look at the southeast radar already.. Its fooking huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It also shows close to 40 knots mixing down with potential for just a little over 45 knots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From JB 5 inches from Chattanooga to Charlotte to Norfolk on the south side, Chattanooga to Martinsuburg to Burlington on the west side. 10 inches starts near Richmond and then north to ALbany, then northeast to the VT/NH Candian border. Within this area including the big cities from PHL ne amounts can reach as high as 15-20 inches with strong winds causing blowing and drifitng and impossible travel for a time. As far as the rain on the coast. Honor thy Father.. for one, you have to smell the rain for the heavies snow, for two its there as a chance, and so amounts could get cut down, but who has the worst storm..6 inches on front and some rain, 6 inches on back winds stronger.. Its a show at the coast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 you think snow ratios will stay pretty good over here? yeah, away from the coast temps will be near 24-26ish...easily 15:1...near the coast in CT probably 29-30 or maybe 12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Messenger, you have a good understanding of the area. I'm about 5-6 miles from the coast in Kingston, basically by the Plympton and Halifax lines. What do you think the chances that this area stays mostly snow for the storm. Judging by the track, and history usually there are some p-type issues but they don't always make it to where I live. If it didn't change at all from the RGEM/NAM which I think is very unlikely based on performance and what seems to be a sneak tendency on this system to be faster - it's been sliding forward in spurts for a day or two.... RGEM you'd be mostly snow but would probably be close for a time. NAM which usually is too far SE with the dry slot, would likely change you over for a time and probably dryslot you. But like I said the chances this is the outcome +/- less than 20-30 miles is near zero just my opinion. If the models continue to increase the initial speed I would expect that gives it a smidge less time to wrap north...total speculation don't hold me too it. Eventually they have to nail it and get it right question is, is this that run? In any case all good things for everyone, I just hope it can curl enough to get Maine. I'll wait until tonight, but based on what I've seen so far I'm probably going to head to ski country early. In laws coming in tonight for the week to ransack the homestead so rather than have 12 people bouncing around the house I'll take 4 and go skiing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It also shows close to 40 knots mixing down with potential for just a little over 45 knots! How far west to those winds get? I see tight isobars, but not sure what to take from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is that a CMC product? I hate their maps. In any case it's further NW and it's curling. RGEM Bob, Scott and Weathafella FTW along with folks to the north. yeah it is a CMC product more detailed maps show around 980 at 3Z on the 27th over the benchmark ..then the low hooks due north and slows to just a hair east of the Cape at 964 this is a great ptype product, very useful IMO in the final 12-24 hours and has scored some coups over the euro and NAM for my area.... right now though its still a bit far out of its range though. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 you think snow ratios will stay pretty good over here? I really don't know much about snow ratios actually but I would think they would be pretty good here, cold at the sfc, no warming aloft, and omega in the best snow growth zone is SICK...like 25-30 units of omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From JB 5 inches from Chattanooga to Charlotte to Norfolk on the south side, Chattanooga to Martinsuburg to Burlington on the west side. 10 inches starts near Richmond and then north to ALbany, then northeast to the VT/NH Candian border. Within this area including the big cities from PHL ne amounts can reach as high as 15-20 inches with strong winds causing blowing and drifitng and impossible travel for a time. As far as the rain on the coast. Honor thy Father.. for one, you have to smell the rain for the heavies snow, for two its there as a chance, and so amounts could get cut down, but who has the worst storm..6 inches on front and some rain, 6 inches on back winds stronger.. Its a show at the coast too. I think the alcohol kicked in during the middle of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 How far west to those winds get? I see tight isobars, but not sure what to take from that. I would tend to think that just about the entire region will see potential for some really strong winds with obviously the strongest winds located closer to the center of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yeah, away from the coast temps will be near 24-26ish...easily 15:1...near the coast in CT probably 29-30 or maybe 12:1 yeah, we usually stay pretty cold where I'm at. I only have 1k of elevation but it does help out. If I can squeak out 15:1 or 20:1 ratios I'll end up with 16"+. That will make me a happy kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not only will the snow and wind be awesome... but this is really going to look awesome on satellite... its pretty much a text book phase and a storm that will be remembered for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yeah, we usually stay pretty cold where I'm at. I only have 1k of elevation but it does help out. If I can squeak out 15:1 or 20:1 ratios I'll end up with 16"+. That will make me a happy kid. Well FWIW, the NAM bufkit at BDL has 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Guess what very appropriate gift I got for Christmas??? Northeast Snowstorms!! I too got this book series. Placed a bug in my wife's ear weeks ago, this two book set is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well FWIW, the NAM bufkit at BDL has 15:1 ratios. Can you post a link for NAM bufkit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS looking good, maybe similar changes to the NAM early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can you post a link for NAM bufkit? There is no link, it's a downloaded program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well FWIW, the NAM bufkit at BDL has 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 animated radar is awesome right now showing a due north to south motion of the echoes on the backside of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I really don't know much about snow ratios actually but I would think they would be pretty good here, cold at the sfc, no warming aloft, and omega in the best snow growth zone is SICK...like 25-30 units of omega. Sfc temps don't really matter unless you're flirting with 32F temps. Low RH in the llvls can sublimate your flakes so you want a moist column. No real issues with those 2 things for you.Aside from that your best dendritic growth is with high supersaturations in that -12C to -18C layer. So look for the high UVVs around that -15C contour in BUFKIT. The deeper the layer the better. Look for that crosshair sig of high snow growth with the high omega. You can select the omega method to estimate the hourly ratios. Keep in mind you can't really add those up as you'll get an inflated total. You'll get compaction through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS is going to be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 IMO Gfs is still a warning sign too. First 24 hours it too is faster, result is less QPF to some extent (down sw you obviously all know rest of run isnt out yet) as it takes a little longer to get everything together. The increase in speed has been an off and on again trend for a day or two. What I could easily see is that continuing for another run or two with things sneaking out a little before wrapping back. Still a lot to be determined, IMO but there's consensus building as the NAM/GFS start to head towards one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sfc temps don't really matter unless you're flirting with 32F temps. Low RH in the llvls can sublimate your flakes so you want a moist column. No real issues with those 2 things for you. Aside from that your best dendritic growth is with high supersaturations in that -12C to -18C layer. So look for the high UVVs around that -15C contour in BUFKIT. The deeper the layer the better. Look for that crosshair sig of high snow growth with the high omega. You can select the omega method to estimate the hourly ratios. Keep in mind you can't really add those up as you'll get an inflated total. You'll get compaction through the event. Dendrite... you look to be a in a great spot for this one... everytime there is a noreaster for SNE there always seems to be a place in central NH and W Maine that get the deform band and just cash in 18-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 IMO Gfs is still a warning sign too. First 24 hours it too is faster, result is less QPF to some extent as it takes a little longer to get everything together. The increase in speed has been an off and on again trend for a day or two. What I could easily see is that continuing for another run or two with things sneaking out a little before wrapping back. Still a lot to be determined, IMO but there's consensus building as the NAM/GFS start to head towards one another. can we not post about models until they're in the relevant frames? A lot of times it's "oh man this run is going to suck look at the speed of the southern jet..." "Oh wait nevermind it looks fine just kidding" It's just confusing I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS is going to be a monster. I'm starting to get really worried on the GFS... it keeps showing this stupid V cutout for SNH.. Anyone know why its doing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 really dont like the surface temps on the gfs....into the 40s near the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sfc temps don't really matter unless you're flirting with 32F temps. Low RH in the llvls can sublimate your flakes so you want a moist column. No real issues with those 2 things for you. Aside from that your best dendritic growth is with high supersaturations in that -12C to -18C layer. So look for the high UVVs around that -15C contour in BUFKIT. The deeper the layer the better. Look for that crosshair sig of high snow growth with the high omega. You can select the omega method to estimate the hourly ratios. Keep in mind you can't really add those up as you'll get an inflated total. You'll get compaction through the event. Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS is just perfect for me...although the better banding on the GFS may even set up to my NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 really dont like the surface temps on the gfs....into the 40s near the coast... maybe south coast of CT, RI.. I assume that is what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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