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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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Just now, Heisy said:

Maybe I got a little too excited, HECs for interior, solid for us, just a little flatter with slightly better tpv position and we are in line


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Yeah, I was gonna say cities riding the line.  But solid.  At least it's showing up on a major model.  Bad news is, it's 174 hours away.   Should have no problem being consistent there, right?

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Remember the days when we'd rejoice at the Euro having it and not worry about the GFS?   And now it's the other way around?
What a time to be alive.  This should be a morale booster for the forum for like 12 hours. 

The trend this year seems to be really good 00z runs and horrid 12z runs. Man I really hope we see that trend at 50/50 as we progress next few days


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10 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

congrats us.  Another week of modelizing.

25qkXWc.png

This time however there is some fierce cold nearby.  I will be curious if that changes things.  Last time the 540 line was north and the 534 was in DTW…510 in KY this time.  That can’t hurt.  

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For around the 20th- still a generally favorable h5 look for a significant MA winter storm, but with the vortex in that position in SE Canada the heavier precip is mostly suppressed south/offshore on both the 0z GEFS and EPS. Cold wouldn't be an issue.

1705730400-RyiCTmPR00w.png

This would be some light snow over the region verbatim.

1705687200-RGGH8fNkyiU.png

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

For around the 20th- still a generally favorable h5 look for a MA winter storm, but with the vortex in that position in SE Canada the heavier precip is mostly suppressed south/offshore on both the 0z GEFS and EPS. Cold wouldn't be an issue.

1705730400-RyiCTmPR00w.png

This would be some light snow over the region verbatim.

1705687200-RGGH8fNkyiU.png

Could trend North.  What our thoughts on that ?  Also connected NAO and WAR gone .

Also looks like cross polar flow.  Hope not cold and dry.   Baroclinic zone might help us possibly. Damn I just want snow.  

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

Could trend North.  What our thoughts on that ?  Also connected NAO and WAR gone .

Also looks like cross polar flow.  Hope not cold and dry.   Baroclinic zone might help us possibly. Damn I just want snow.  

Still 10 days out. The key features exactly as depicted likely are not correct. Plenty of possibilities.

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Sterling LWX now seeing the threat for the 16-17!!

 

Unlike previous systems, the air mass in the wake of this one should
be much colder. This becomes more noticeable by Sunday into Monday
as high temperatures fall into the 30s to low 40s, with 20s across
the mountains. At night, low temperatures should be in the 20s for
most, locally falling into the teens for those west of the Blue
Ridge. The biggest question mark is will additional precipitation
move into the region as cold air is in place. Numerous model
solutions show progressive shortwaves racing through the area.
Depending on access to moisture and degree of forcing aloft, some
wintry component by re-emerge into the new work week.
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