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Southeast Sanitarium - Winter 23/24 Edition


eyewall
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On 1/21/2022 at 3:15 PM, eyewall said:
Latest guidance and observed trends are increasingly supportive of a
high potential for heavy snow bands to develop over portions of
central and eastern NC over the next 15 hours, with the focus on the
7p-3a time frame. The latest surface analysis shows frigid high
pressure nosing down through central NC with cold/dry air advection,
including single-digit dewpoints just to our N. Radar continues to
show spotty elevated returns facing this dry subcloud layer and thus
not reaching the ground. However, this is expected to change as the
deep layer forcing for ascent strengthens as we head into the
evening, resulting in saturation of the column and a blossoming of
wintry precip over central NC, all in tandem with a band of
increasing H7-H5 fgen from the central Piedmont E nearly to the
coast between 02z and 08z. Most large scale models depict much
stronger and more focused upper divergence over north-central and
northeast NC than previous runs showed, and the potent mid level
shortwave trough crossing the region this evening/tonight now takes
on a neutral to slightly negative tilt as it reaches central NC.
High res model guidance including recent HRRR runs also show well
the bands of heavier precip starting this evening. Much of the area
will see a fully below-0C column except for the SE, roughly along/SE
of a Maxton-to-Goldsboro line which will see some warming aloft,
although the expected degree of glazing in the SE has trended lower
in recent model runs, and even this area may see decent snowfall
with fairly light icing except for areas SE of Clinton. Given the
higher confidence in the occurrence of heavy snow bands, have bumped
up storm total snow to 2.5-4.5" along and east of a Wadesboro-to-
Roanoke Rapids line. Areas NW of here will likely see some snow, but
lasting a shorter time and with a lower threat of heavy snow, so we
issued an advisory for the remainder of the area, except Forsyth,
for snow totals up to 2". A quick exit of the precip from W to E is
expected by sunrise or very soon thereafter. Lows from the teens to
lower 20s. Chilly NW winds through the night will culminate in
daybreak wind chills into the single digits to lower teens. -GIH

Just so everyone remembers the last time things looked positive for us. Still remember reading this discussion, it had been below freezing several days, we had a dusting of snow from that morning, and a storm we thought we’d lost had come back to life over the previous 12 hours. That was a good day 

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45 minutes ago, blueheels2 said:

I want to cry.  I remember the good old days when we used to track storms that never happened.   Now nothing happens ever.

Yea at this point, I'd rather have fantasy storms that didn't come to fruition vs no fantasy storms and still be disappointed lol.

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At the end of February if we haven't had any snow (likely) then I hope we stay just above freezing at night with cool afternoons until May.  As much as I miss snow I despise the early warm ups that transition to a hard freeze and a destruction of everything in bloom.

I have resigned myself that snow fall will be an exceedingly rare event and anything I get will be a major unexpected surprise.  Sort of like finding a $20 in an old coat you haven't worn in a long time.  The constant back and forth between "we still have hope" and the "it's over" camps has become tiring.  I now assume no snow is the new normal, drink a glass of whiskey and just enjoy the cool weather.

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2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This winter is officially cooked

The pond dried up and the ducks flew away.  As long as we end up with an extended spring well into June/July that might partially ease the pain.  I do like me some 60s in June and 70s in July.

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1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

The pond dried up and the ducks flew away.  As long as we end up with an extended spring well into June/July that might partially ease the pain.  I do like me some 60s in June and 70s in July.

Hot take: but I’m going to say pass on that. Usually those 60s/70s aren’t dry days. I’m sick of cold wet patterns: march-June. Last Memorial Day weekend gave me 5 inches of rain and highs in the 40s. I hope we hit March 1st and it’s the torch to end all torches. Knock out the pollen phase quick and get outside to enjoy.

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17 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Hot take: but I’m going to say pass on that. Usually those 60s/70s aren’t dry days. I’m sick of cold wet patterns: march-June. Last Memorial Day weekend gave me 5 inches of rain and highs in the 40s. I hope we hit March 1st and it’s the torch to end all torches. Knock out the pollen phase quick and get outside to enjoy.

Love some 80’s without humidity 

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12 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Amen. We haven’t had a warm spring in a while. The days get longer and it sucks to piss it away indoors. 

Seems over the past decade or more, this neck of the woods has three seasons: fall, winter, late winter followed by summer.  There will be a spring fever week in February then the teleconnections setup for a western ridge and east coast trough; cold winds start blowing in March and persist into the first week in May with a smattering of brief warmups.  Mountain valleys will continue to see snow flurries in April and into May for the higher elevations.  It will be interesting to see if El Nino disrupts what has become a typical "Spring" pattern.

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2 hours ago, Moonhowl said:

Seems over the past decade or more, this neck of the woods has three seasons: fall, winter, late winter followed by summer.  There will be a spring fever week in February then the teleconnections setup for a western ridge and east coast trough; cold winds start blowing in March and persist into the first week in May with a smattering of brief warmups.  Mountain valleys will continue to see snow flurries in April and into May for the higher elevations.  It will be interesting to see if El Nino disrupts what has become a typical "Spring" pattern.

Yep and it drives me nuts. I can totally understand how those down east or in Ga would want to avoid the heat, but locally, nothing is worse than 7pm+ sunsets with rain 5/7 days per week and needing to keep the sweats and jackets on the closet rack in May. Even worse, that pattern has been almost exclusive to NC, SC and southern VA the past few years.

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1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Yep and it drives me nuts. I can totally understand how those down east or in Ga would want to avoid the heat, but locally, nothing is worse than 7pm+ sunsets with rain 5/7 days per week and needing to keep the sweats and jackets on the closet rack in May. Even worse, that pattern has been almost exclusive to NC, SC and southern VA the past few years.

I’m on the other end of the spectrum from you, @BooneWX. Give me 50s, 60s, and 70s as long as possible. I don’t want any 80s, 90s, or 100s even if it’s the middle of July. If it takes rain showers to keep the temp down, I’m in.

Of course, our preferences really have nothing to do with it, though, as they have no bearing on the actual weather…. :D

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Who's gonna crank up the spring thread? 

The winter thread is too much fun. A few still holding onto analogs and 492 hour weeklies for hope, then illogical and nonsensical spewing from everyone at the bottom of the cliff. Good times

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