sauss06 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: MAG started this "I'm mowing for others" campaign, and I'll just say this right here, right now...mowing other people's yards is truly an incredibly kind and wonderful gesture. It really is. My hat tip goes to people who serve others like that. The world needs a lot more of those kind of people. So if I must concede the trophy this year for that type of service...easiest decision I've ever made. ah, wait a minute. no kind gesture. Doing it for the trophy, the $30 per mow and the beer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 The LES could be quite impressive on Sunday. The sim radar on the Nam looks like a snowstorm in the western half of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The LES could be quite impressive on Sunday. The sim radar on the Nam looks like a snowstorm in the western half of PA. Yep, had my eye on that for a while now. Could be rockin'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yep, had my eye on that for a while now. Could be rockin'. Hope we all get some flakes and put March on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I knew he did not like mowing, but he seems competitive so thought he may change his colors a bit this spring. The lawn is yours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 I don’t usually post snapshots of ops in the long range but might as well throw this one in here with the other maps. This is the new AI generated Euro model. I saw the Mid-Atlantic folks sharing this occasionally down there and now WB has put it on their site in the last day or so. So there’s that.. it is nice that it goes all the way out to 360 on all 4 daily runs. Also noteworthy is that it has been very cold in the D10-15, with major negative departures in Canada getting into the northern US. So will be interesting to monitor how this does. Perhaps the AI Euro has “learned” that the 3 out of last 4 winters being garbage winters all produced garbage springs too haha. With two of them (19-20 & 22-23) producing snows in some portion of PA in May and the other one (21-22) with a snow event in the central counties in late April. At any rate, ensembles have been clearly showing a major nosedive of the EPO during roughly the 3/13-3/17 period and staying solidly negative for at least several days beyond that. So that period around St Patty’s thru about the 23rd is likely one to watch. This transition of the EPO is pretty well within the ensemble range where there would be some skill in forecasting, so barring any major changes in the near term (possible of course) it would appear this pattern shift will occur despite what the MJO is doing. I think the question will be how much cold air gets involved and how long the -EPO regime lasts. That will have implications on how cold/warm the rest of month into early April is. The MJO pulse is a pretty strong one, but is forecast to move quite rapidly from 4 to 7 pretty much in the next 10 days. So I wonder if it’s influence on our pattern might be tempered a bit by its rapid progression. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 I’m letting my grass grow until it covers up the broken down el Camino and rusted out freezer in my backyard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 No specific snow threats on the 12Z GFS through 330 but temps drop BN on Mar 17th and get colder as the run continues from there. Lows in the teens and low 20's one night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 50 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: I’m letting my grass grow until it covers up the broken down el Camino and rusted out freezer in my backyard. Pinkman? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: I’m letting my grass grow until it covers up the broken down el Camino and rusted out freezer in my backyard. Did you move to Perry county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Did you move to Perry county? Elitist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Elitist I have eyes. Marysville is not included in this comment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 https://www.yahoo.com/sports/chiefs-fans-endured-freezing-temperatures-202714224.html 70% of frostbitten fans from last year's Chiefs/Dolphins game need amputations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Brilliantly cloud-free sunny skies and 59 at 5:30. Perfect after work walk weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 60ºF was the high here today, mosquitoes are out for blood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 6 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Did you move to Perry county? Hey now…much of the county is very nice… Every county has its good & bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 7 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I don’t usually post snapshots of ops in the long range but might as well throw this one in here with the other maps. This is the new AI generated Euro model. I saw the Mid-Atlantic folks sharing this occasionally down there and now WB has put it on their site in the last day or so. So there’s that.. it is nice that it goes all the way out to 360 on all 4 daily runs. Also noteworthy is that it has been very cold in the D10-15, with major negative departures in Canada getting into the northern US. So will be interesting to monitor how this does. Perhaps the AI Euro has “learned” that the 3 out of last 4 winters being garbage winters all produced garbage springs too haha. With two of them (19-20 & 22-23) producing snows in some portion of PA in May and the other one (21-22) with a snow event in the central counties in late April. At any rate, ensembles have been clearly showing a major nosedive of the EPO during roughly the 3/13-3/17 period and staying solidly negative for at least several days beyond that. So that period around St Patty’s thru about the 23rd is likely one to watch. This transition of the EPO is pretty well within the ensemble range where there would be some skill in forecasting, so barring any major changes in the near term (possible of course) it would appear this pattern shift will occur despite what the MJO is doing. I think the question will be how much cold air gets involved and how long the -EPO regime lasts. That will have implications on how cold/warm the rest of month into early April is. The MJO pulse is a pretty strong one, but is forecast to move quite rapidly from 4 to 7 pretty much in the next 10 days. So I wonder if it’s influence on our pattern might be tempered a bit by its rapid progression. It’s good that we have 1 more model available on WB, but I’m sad it it doesn’t offer snow maps! The 12z Euro AI still has the strong storm on Mid Atlantic coast on the morning of the 19th. Let’s see how this model performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s good that we have 1 more model available on WB, but I’m sad it it doesn’t offer snow maps! The 12z Euro AI still has the strong storm on Mid Atlantic coast on the morning of the 19th. Let’s see how this model performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Each of the 12z ensembles still look have a workable pattern for day 10 to 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Each of the 12z ensembles still look have a workable pattern for day 10 to 15. Yes, @mitchnick temperatures look to be solidly below normal for the day 10 to 15 period on each of the 12z global ensembles as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 8 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I don’t usually post snapshots of ops in the long range but might as well throw this one in here with the other maps. This is the new AI generated Euro model. I saw the Mid-Atlantic folks sharing this occasionally down there and now WB has put it on their site in the last day or so. So there’s that.. it is nice that it goes all the way out to 360 on all 4 daily runs. Also noteworthy is that it has been very cold in the D10-15, with major negative departures in Canada getting into the northern US. So will be interesting to monitor how this does. Perhaps the AI Euro has “learned” that the 3 out of last 4 winters being garbage winters all produced garbage springs too haha. With two of them (19-20 & 22-23) producing snows in some portion of PA in May and the other one (21-22) with a snow event in the central counties in late April. At any rate, ensembles have been clearly showing a major nosedive of the EPO during roughly the 3/13-3/17 period and staying solidly negative for at least several days beyond that. So that period around St Patty’s thru about the 23rd is likely one to watch. This transition of the EPO is pretty well within the ensemble range where there would be some skill in forecasting, so barring any major changes in the near term (possible of course) it would appear this pattern shift will occur despite what the MJO is doing. I think the question will be how much cold air gets involved and how long the -EPO regime lasts. That will have implications on how cold/warm the rest of month into early April is. The MJO pulse is a pretty strong one, but is forecast to move quite rapidly from 4 to 7 pretty much in the next 10 days. So I wonder if it’s influence on our pattern might be tempered a bit by its rapid progression. As you mentioned, the EPO looks to dive negative according to the EPS, which should help with cold air delivery to our region. The other teleconnections also are forecast to be favorable for the 17th to 23rd period. Hopefully the teleconnections will minimize the impacts of the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hey now…much of the county is very nice… Every county has its good & bad. True that. I walked back marysville in my next post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 32 here this morning with frost. been awhile since we had frost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Now the fog rolled in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Now the fog rolled in. Freezing fog! 37 here with scattered frost. One or 2 nights of 20's coming up for us it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Low of 35 here, yet had to scrape my windshield. Wasn’t expecting that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Freezing fog! 37 here with scattered frost. One or 2 nights of 20's coming up for us it would seem. visibility here is less then 300 feet from the fog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 34 with patchy frost in Marysville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 6z GFS has a storm along the Mid Atlantic coast on St. Patty’s Day evening. This would be a nice welcome back to PA for me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z GFS has a storm along the Mid Atlantic coast on St. Patty’s Day evening. This would be a nice welcome back to PA for me! GFS has it below freezing in Florida for the first full day of Spring. Ouch. 47 all the way down in Ft. Myers. Impressive though just models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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