MAG5035 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Also, Sterling tapers their amounts down south of DC while CTP says the heaviest may be south of DC. Weird take, the only thing that represents what CTP is talking about in their AFD was the 12z GFS op. Everything else supports advisories in at least the first tier or two of counties in southern PA currently. No need to jump the gun issuing them just yet but I’m not sure what guidance they’re basing the current take on. Also weird, the snow here has transitioned to graupel 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Roofus is looking like Icon a bit as to accums. Two maxima's in between a minima and basically what someone in the MA board (maybe PSU) about the northern Maxima getting more due to fluff/ratios. Maps Bro! Did you not read ITT’s post?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nice bump north on the GFS. More juiced than it’s 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18z Icon ensembles show the stripe of highest qpf along the southern tier of PA, which is what the operational runs showed before the 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Nice bump north on the GFS. More juiced than it’s 12Z run. Yeah, but interestingly the Gfs snowfall maps on Pivotal don't reflect the additional qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Maps Bro! Did you not read ITT’s post?? ITT is trying to manipulate me to post more snows maps. I am the boss of me! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 ITT is trying to manipulate me to post more snows maps. I am the boss of me! CTP going to have a snow stress induced breakdown after this weekSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here is Blizz racing home from work to talk about the NWS AFD info 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 FunkySent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 And now it's raining lol. Strange weather, this. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 And now it's raining lol. Strange weather, this. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using TapatalkThis you?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18z Ggem has the stripe of higher qpf along the southern tier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Did central pa see any storms from this system?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 CTP is on an island by themselves Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WWA out for Philly and Chester countiesSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 CTP forecast through Sunday Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 good chance this may be the last storm with cold outbreak now turning turning into a warm up lol im still miffed about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 CTP forecast through Sunday Sent from my SM-G970U using TapatalkSo I think the problem with CTP is that they are completely disconnected with the southern tier counties. I think that’s why there’s always such a delay, and why they always seem one step behind. Really frustrating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, anotherman said: So I think the problem with CTP is that they are completely disconnected with the southern tier counties. I think that’s why there’s always such a delay, and why they always seem one step behind. Really frustrating. There is more evidence to have a Winter Storm Watch out now than there was for the last storm, IMO. Not only do they not do that they suggest it is too early for a WWA. Local news channels are beating the drum and going with 2-4 or 3-5. I try to stay away from insulting and not going to do it here, but this does seem bad. There are some NWS sympathizers among us, and I appreciate the viewpoint, but this is not great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 good chance this may be the last storm with cold outbreak now turning turning into a warm up lol im still miffed about this.It will snow again when nobody wants it too. It will get cold just to screw with early plantersSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: There is more evidence to have a Winter Storm Watch out now than there was for the last storm, IMO. Not only do they not do that they suggest it is too early for a WWA. Local news channels are beating the drum and going with 2-4 or 3-5. I try to stay away from insulting and not going to do it here, but this does seem bad. There are some NWS sympathizers among us, and I appreciate the viewpoint, but this is not great. Yeah, I'm one of their loudest defenders, and after my string of posts a little earlier, they seem off here. The thing that bothers me more than anything isn't their amounts - fine, go with how you feel like it's going to shake down...it's the fact that their AFD doesn't match the agencies that they said they collaborated with. At least let your words match your actions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yeah, I'm one of their loudest defenders, and after my string of posts a little earlier, they seem off here. The thing that bothers me more than anything isn't their amounts - fine, go with how you feel like it's going to shake down...it's the fact that their AFD doesn't match the agencies that they said they collaborated with. At least let your words match your actions. Let them be wrong so they can be rightfully trolled. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: There is more evidence to have a Winter Storm Watch out now than there was for the last storm, IMO. Not only do they not do that they suggest it is too early for a WWA. Local news channels are beating the drum and going with 2-4 or 3-5. I try to stay away from insulting and not going to do it here, but this does seem bad. There are some NWS sympathizers among us, and I appreciate the viewpoint, but this is not great. And with that, Sterling has issued Winter Storm Watches right up to the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 My NWS forecast has less than an inch tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: There is more evidence to have a Winter Storm Watch out now than there was for the last storm, IMO. Not only do they not do that they suggest it is too early for a WWA. Local news channels are beating the drum and going with 2-4 or 3-5. I try to stay away from insulting and not going to do it here, but this does seem bad. There are some NWS sympathizers among us, and I appreciate the viewpoint, but this is not great. Certainly there’s support for the southern Laurel’s to have one. You’d think a coordination with LWX/PBZ having watches in Garrett/Western Alleghany in western MD (LWX) and Eastern Preston in WV (PBZ) would possibly warrant a watch up into Somerset. Those high elevations are probably going to be low-mid 20s during the height of the event. Temps aloft are supportive of a higher ratio event and couple that with some upsloping and I believe some of those short range models are onto something having 6”+ up in those areas. I dunno about watches east of that yet. Like I said a bit ago, probably don’t need to rush the advisories. I’d wait to see 0z and then go from there. I’m surprised there hasn’t been a mention in the HWO about any accumulating snow or prospects of it at all, though. I dunno, I doubt it but maybe getting burned on models bailing south 100 miles in the 24 hr lead up to Tuesday mornings event made for some cold feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’m typically a defender of the central NWS as well, but I’m getting tired of the York, Lebanon, Lancaster circle of no headlines when we’re encircled by counties with headlines. Also, slow to react lately when all of the data shows they should be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Lol Lwx puts out WS Watches. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Certainly there’s support for the southern Laurel’s to have one. You’d think a coordination with LWX/PBZ having watches in Garrett/Western Alleghany in western MD (LWX) and Eastern Preston in WV (PBZ) would possibly warrant a watch up into Somerset. Those high elevations are probably going to be low-mid 20s during the height of the event. Temps aloft are supportive of a higher ratio event and couple that with some upsloping and I believe some of those short range models are onto something having 6”+ up in those areas. I dunno about watches east of that yet. Like I said a bit ago, probably don’t need to rush the advisories. I’d wait to see 0z and then go from there. I’m surprised there hasn’t been a mention in the HWO about any accumulating snow or prospects of it at all, though. I dunno, I doubt it but maybe getting burned on models bailing south 100 miles in the 24 hr lead up to Tuesday mornings event made for some cold feet. My comment was based on the quick changing situation last time and a compare to this time. 36 hours before the event, not many models have me getting 5" or more with the last system yet I had a WSW. Now, there are several models that suggest 5" here and there is nothing from them except a down play of the situation. They could of course be right but it is not consistent with their actions on the last system. We are actually down to 24 hours before the event at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 To be fair, LWX’s watch statement is for most likely outcome of 2-4” with isolated 6” amounts in heavier bands. That’s a bit of a stretch for a region that needs widespread 5” or more to verify a warning, technically. Both ends of the spectrum between CTP and LWX haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 My comment was based on the quick changing situation last time and a compare to this time. 36 hours before the event, not many models have me getting 5" or more with the last system yet I had a WSW. Now, there are several models that suggest 5" here and there is nothing from them except a down play of the situation. They could of course be right but it is not consistent with their actions on the last system. We are actually down to 24 hours before the event at this point. Is our next extended HRRR at 8?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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