mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was just looking at it...the timing is not what I expected re: the 12th in to the 13th. It is almost like some of the members have a follow up wave. Maybe it is just timing differences. I cannot see each member's panel (did not look at MA.) The mean is in Maine before some of the accums in PA. Perfect timing for me. I'm loving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Sizzling off the press from Elliott: Looking ahead into next week and the second half of February, there continue to be signs of a large-scale pattern change. However, the magnitude and duration of that pattern change remain rather uncertain. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).. or an eastward-moving wave of convection between the Indian and western Pacific Oceans.. is currently in phase 7 but should finally progress into phase 8 around Valentine's Day. In stark contrast to phase 7, MJO activity in phase 8 favors colder and stormier weather in the mid-Atlantic States. There is often a 1-week lag effect with MJO forcing across eastern North America, so the brunt of the colder air may not arrive until February 17th-20th. Additionally, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), or band of westerly winds enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air that develops 10-30 miles above the ground over the Arctic Circle every winter, may weaken during the second half of the month and get "dislodged" off the North Pole. A strong SPV is often associated with weaker storm systems and a zonal, or less wavy, Jet Stream pattern, but an unstable SPV can sometimes precede cold air outbreaks and signal a stormier weather pattern across central and/or eastern North America 1-2 weeks later. However, this is not always the case, and the cold air can just as easily dump into Europe or Siberia. Despite the uncertainties, there should be at least one or two more opportunities for a significant (3"+) snowstorm between February 15th and March 5th. I'm also keeping an eye on a potential storm system next Monday into Tuesday, but the air mass to its north will probably not yet be cold enough for snow in the I-81 or I-95 corridors. There won't be a source of cold air over northern New England and southeastern Canada, and the system could easily just slide across the southeastern United States and out to sea. Needless to say, I'm not impressed by this "thread-the-needle" opportunity for snow. At this point, the most likely scenario is for Monday to turn out partly-to-mostly cloudy and still quite mild with highs in the 40s to perhaps 50°F. There's still time for things to change, but I advise winter-weather fans to keep their expectations low. Check back on Thursday or Friday for an update! Oh, and as I mentioned on Friday, a warmer weather pattern should return during the second week of March due to the progression of several different large-scale features. Spring officially begins on March 19th, but it may arrive 10-14 days early this year. The clock is ticking for snow-lovers.. -- Elliott 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Sizzling off the press from Elliott: . Spring officially begins on March 19th, but it may arrive 10-14 days early this year. The clock is ticking for snow-lovers.. -- ElliottGooood Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sizzling off the press from Elliott: Looking ahead into next week and the second half of February, there continue to be signs of a large-scale pattern change. However, the magnitude and duration of that pattern change remain rather uncertain. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).. or an eastward-moving wave of convection between the Indian and western Pacific Oceans.. is currently in phase 7 but should finally progress into phase 8 around Valentine's Day. In stark contrast to phase 7, MJO activity in phase 8 favors colder and stormier weather in the mid-Atlantic States. There is often a 1-week lag effect with MJO forcing across eastern North America, so the brunt of the colder air may not arrive until February 17th-20th. Additionally, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), or band of westerly winds enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air that develops 10-30 miles above the ground over the Arctic Circle every winter, may weaken during the second half of the month and get "dislodged" off the North Pole. A strong SPV is often associated with weaker storm systems and a zonal, or less wavy, Jet Stream pattern, but an unstable SPV can sometimes precede cold air outbreaks and signal a stormier weather pattern across central and/or eastern North America 1-2 weeks later. However, this is not always the case, and the cold air can just as easily dump into Europe or Siberia. Despite the uncertainties, there should be at least one or two more opportunities for a significant (3"+) snowstorm between February 15th and March 5th. I'm also keeping an eye on a potential storm system next Monday into Tuesday, but the air mass to its north will probably not yet be cold enough for snow in the I-81 or I-95 corridors. There won't be a source of cold air over northern New England and southeastern Canada, and the system could easily just slide across the southeastern United States and out to sea. Needless to say, I'm not impressed by this "thread-the-needle" opportunity for snow. At this point, the most likely scenario is for Monday to turn out partly-to-mostly cloudy and still quite mild with highs in the 40s to perhaps 50°F. There's still time for things to change, but I advise winter-weather fans to keep their expectations low. Check back on Thursday or Friday for an update! Oh, and as I mentioned on Friday, a warmer weather pattern should return during the second week of March due to the progression of several different large-scale features. Spring officially begins on March 19th, but it may arrive 10-14 days early this year. The clock is ticking for snow-lovers.. -- Elliott His view on March is in conflict with a lot of the MA LR posters. Met spring starts Mar 1 anyway. Extra day of Met winter this year though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPA MT TOP Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Never saw such discrepancy with so called experts. If anything shows something good within minutes some expert shows how all that won't happen and it's basically all over. I have listened and read many experts saying the exact opposite of this doom and gloom. I would think it's great for us in northern PA gets the heavy snow and southern PA gets the rain. Maybe these few here will be glad they were proved right. No matter what model or future connections show good times the few here soon will be on with the bad news, but always with that sentence; might be wrong. That covers themselves. Now someone saying spring early not much left, if that' s the case why not end the winter forum and just go to spring mode. Can just imagine the comments I'll see, not that I care. Good luck to the few who aren't like they are. Hope you get the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Perfect timing for me. I'm loving it. I meant the mean low position vs. the snow depth map. The mean low is well past the area before the depth changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: Gooood Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I find it amusing that he suggests possible SSW event/lag time and what it may mean to LR guidance, but still stands firm on early spring (which would be after said voodo event)? IF we were to get said SSW event, that might throw a small or large wrench into his call for early spring. Mind you, like Mitch, I have always been intrigued by SSW events and hope this one works, as no matter when spring comes, we'd have a notable stretch of winter beforehand and if said event unfolds, the lag time and duration are really hard to pin down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I meant the mean low position vs. the snow depth map. The mean low is well past the area before the depth changes. I know. Eps are showing mean snowfall period would be between Monday evening to Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I know. Eps are showing mean snowfall period would be between Monday evening to Tuesday. When the mean low is way past any time snow would be falling. Just ensemble fun and working with means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: When the mean low is way past any time snow would be falling. Just ensemble fun and working with means. I just look at snowfall maps. At 7pm Monday, the snow is to our west with no accumulations. At 1AM on Tuesday, there is some snowfall accumulations. That's good for my purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, mitchnick said: I just look at snowfall maps. At 7pm Monday, the snow is to our west with no accumulations. At 1AM on Tuesday, there is some snowfall. That's good for my purposes. We are talking about two totally different things. No issues. I am pointing out the discrepancy of the mean low location and the snow depth means. Snow depth increases over the LSV after 7AM Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: We are talking about two totally different things. No issues. I am pointing out the discrepancy of the mean low location and the snow depth means. Snow depth increases over the LSV after 7AM Tue. Lol. Ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Weeklies were just posted in the MA thread. If you want snow chances to the end of March you'll like them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, Chris78 said: Weeklies were just posted in the MA thread. If you want snow chances to the end of March you'll like them. They are pretty crazy. Better if we got the pattern earlier, but better late than never. Just better snow and not just get cold and dry. That would stink. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They are pretty crazy. Better if we got the pattern earlier, but better late than never. Just better snow and not just get cold and dry. That would stink. Yep. It's a shame things didn't start to reshuffle 2 to 3 weeks earlier so we could of had all of February and the first 2 weeks of March to cash in but it is what it is. Atleast in PA big storms can happen well into March. Further south it gets alot tougher after the first week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sizzling off the press from Elliott: Looking ahead into next week and the second half of February, there continue to be signs of a large-scale pattern change. However, the magnitude and duration of that pattern change remain rather uncertain. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).. or an eastward-moving wave of convection between the Indian and western Pacific Oceans.. is currently in phase 7 but should finally progress into phase 8 around Valentine's Day. In stark contrast to phase 7, MJO activity in phase 8 favors colder and stormier weather in the mid-Atlantic States. There is often a 1-week lag effect with MJO forcing across eastern North America, so the brunt of the colder air may not arrive until February 17th-20th. Additionally, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), or band of westerly winds enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air that develops 10-30 miles above the ground over the Arctic Circle every winter, may weaken during the second half of the month and get "dislodged" off the North Pole. A strong SPV is often associated with weaker storm systems and a zonal, or less wavy, Jet Stream pattern, but an unstable SPV can sometimes precede cold air outbreaks and signal a stormier weather pattern across central and/or eastern North America 1-2 weeks later. However, this is not always the case, and the cold air can just as easily dump into Europe or Siberia. Despite the uncertainties, there should be at least one or two more opportunities for a significant (3"+) snowstorm between February 15th and March 5th. I'm also keeping an eye on a potential storm system next Monday into Tuesday, but the air mass to its north will probably not yet be cold enough for snow in the I-81 or I-95 corridors. There won't be a source of cold air over northern New England and southeastern Canada, and the system could easily just slide across the southeastern United States and out to sea. Needless to say, I'm not impressed by this "thread-the-needle" opportunity for snow. At this point, the most likely scenario is for Monday to turn out partly-to-mostly cloudy and still quite mild with highs in the 40s to perhaps 50°F. There's still time for things to change, but I advise winter-weather fans to keep their expectations low. Check back on Thursday or Friday for an update! Oh, and as I mentioned on Friday, a warmer weather pattern should return during the second week of March due to the progression of several different large-scale features. Spring officially begins on March 19th, but it may arrive 10-14 days early this year. The clock is ticking for snow-lovers.. -- Elliott I can get on board with most of that, except the last couple sentences. Gonna have to respectfully disagree with that particular assessment for the time being. I look at that longer range guidance and don’t see much support for a wholesale shift to early spring in that timeframe. Extended stuff (GEFS Extended and Euro Weeklies) are pretty firm on maintaining -NAO/AO/EPO and +PNA throughout. MJO could eventually run the 8-1-2 phases, though I think models are still feeling that out. That alone is plenty of evidence to the contrary as things look at this point. His mention of a late stratwarm is actually on the model guidance (both Euro and GFS) beginning in earnest mid-month and stretching/dislodging the SPV. GFS op managed to actually split the SPV out in the D10-15 timeframe. Stratwarm events are hardly a sure thing, but given the lag time typically involved with one occurring, propagating downward and seeing arctic air dislodged etc…spring probably wouldn’t be springing much on or around march 10th if the arctic were to release toward the CONUS. So yea, if we’re talking early spring.. the next few days or so could be the best example of such. I’ve been putting in temp numbers for the forecast competition thing WeatherBell has been doing. Temp forecasts for the next month have to be submitted by the 20th. This was what I settled on for February back on Jan 20. If one thinks that seems warm in the north and northeast, you should see the current departures to date. Minneapolis is 18.9ºF above normal for the month so far as of today. Pitt is 10.5ºF. It better get cold second half of the month haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I can get on board with most of that, except the last couple sentences. Gonna have to respectfully disagree with that particular assessment for the time being. I look at that longer range guidance and don’t see much support for a wholesale shift to early spring in that timeframe. Extended stuff (GEFS Extended and Euro Weeklies) are pretty firm on maintaining -NAO/AO/EPO and +PNA throughout. MJO could eventually run the 8-1-2 phases, though I think models are still feeling that out. That alone is plenty of evidence to the contrary as things look at this point. His mention of a late stratwarm is actually on the model guidance (both Euro and GFS) beginning in earnest mid-month and stretching/dislodging the SPV. GFS op managed to actually split the SPV out in the D10-15 timeframe. Stratwarm events are hardly a sure thing, but given the lag time typically involved with one occurring, propagating downward and seeing arctic air dislodged etc…spring probably wouldn’t be springing much on or around march 10th if the arctic were to release toward the CONUS. So yea, if we’re talking early spring.. the next few days or so could be the best example of such. I’ve been putting in temp numbers for the forecast competition thing WeatherBell has been doing. Temp forecasts for the next month have to be submitted by the 20th. This was what I settled on for February back on Jan 20. If one thinks that seems warm in the north and northeast, you should see the current departures to date. Minneapolis is 18.9ºF above normal for the month so far as of today. Pitt is 10.5ºF. It better get cold second half of the month haha. He definitely seems to be on an island with the early spring idea...and he's not backing down, either. Going to be interesting to see how all of this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 Tamaqua or Phoenix, it makes no difference... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Quick hitter wet snow on the GFS for the 12/13th as a coastal strengthens and draws in slightly colder air on its way out. 1-3" of slop for middle and lower LSV but an improvement. The track is great though a bit suppressed for PA....the temps are not. Temps are so questionable that there is rain north of the LSV snow due to lower intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: He definitely seems to be on an island with the early spring idea...and he's not backing down, either. Going to be interesting to see how all of this plays out. I saw another met or two say winter is done by March 7th. Glad it is not my call to make. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 18z GFS has a strengthening low passing off to our south & east for early next week. Plenty of upside potential if this track would be close to verifying. This is a way to win in a marginal situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Tamaqua or Phoenix, it makes no difference... Phoenix Split isn't going to get me on a ramble that leads to a banning. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I saw another met or two say winter is done by March 7th. Glad it is not my call to make. Forum morale would be pretty rough if that actually occurred haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Forum morale would be pretty rough if that actually occurred haha. If we had a good end to Feb with over 15", I think some would take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 If we had a good end to Feb with over 15", I think some would take it! My goal is 10"Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: My goal is 10" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I never had any goals in life, except to finish my paper route on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I never had any goals in life, except to finish my paper route on time. Chris Elliott, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Chris Elliott, is that you? I could never be that accomplished. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Everyone seemed to cash-in the last time I was sent off. Does the bored want me to receive another red card to ensure snow? Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Everyone seemed to cash-in the last time I was sent off. Does the bored want me to receive another red card to ensure snow? Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Going to need something better than Phoenix Spilt. That sounds like a Class A Baseball team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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