pasnownut Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Things look good to me in the day 10-15 5 day means on all 3 globals in early January. sure looks better and nice to have support on all major ens guidance. In my opinion, Op models should start becoming more believable in the coming days. Sure hope so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Merry Christmas Eve to all!! We picked up 0.05" of rain early this AM but with temps well above freezing no issues. Christmas Day looks great for travel with temps well into the 40's across the county and partly sunny skies. No freezing temps at all across the area until at the earliest Friday AM. Rain moves in late on Tuesday evening and lasts into Wednesday night. We then have a change in the pattern to much chillier air which looks to last right into the first part of the New Year. There will also be some opportunities for wintry weather as we head toward the 1st weekend of 2024. Records for Christmas Eve: High 68.5 (2015) / Low 2 below zero (1980) / Rain 1.63" (1986) / Snow 20.0" (1966) which was the snowstorm with frequent thunder and lightning accompanying the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 What are we all thankful about today? For me it's having a place to talk to people about this stuff who won't slowly back out of room while maintaining eye contact at all times. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 58 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Dude, it’s Christmas Eve… please….. Fair enough. Merry Christmas, enjoy the (still somewhat rare) treat of getting to wear shorts on Christmas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Below are the top 15 coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day combos since 1894....of note the top 4 have all occurred since 1980. Including the all-time 3rd coldest just last Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Below are the top 15 coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day combos since 1894....of note the top 4 have all occurred since 1980. Including the all-time 3rd coldest just last Christmas. I remember 1983 very well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Merry Christmas, hope a warning event somehow happens in 2024…stay safe and have fun all. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 The end of the 12z GEPS improved over the 0z run with more of the broad coast to coast trough with a good look near Greenland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Who was it that wrote a day in the life for our forum?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Who was it that wrote a day in the life for our forum? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk That would be @Itstrainingtime I look forward to when he does that again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 That would be [mention=1366]Itstrainingtime[/mention] I look forward to when he does that again.That was pure gold. It was right before a big storm too I believe. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 We need some more cheer on here. All of weather history backs up this point; the snow drought will not be for eternity. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Here is a snapshot of just how undecided things are even at day 9 on the 12z Op runs… Long way to go even for even the first few days of the year to be decided. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulm Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is a snapshot of just how undecided things are even at day 9 on the 12z Op runs… Long way to go even for even the first few days of the year to be decided. EPS is significantly less amplified than the Euro, so the operational is likely too aggressive for the 1/2 storm system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 EPS is significantly less amplified than the Euro, so the operational is likely too aggressive for the 1/2 storm system. How does NWS measure model error 9 days out?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 45 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: How does NWS measure model error 9 days out? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/medrhist.shtml or pic below you pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/medrhist.shtml or pic below you pick. That just has to do with max min temps thoughSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 40 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: That just has to do with max min temps though Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk It has a few items and one is models. Maybe this helps from NCEP as they have some tools as well https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml only goes out to 6-7 days tho me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Sure enough, highs into the 40s into the middle of next week. This is absolutely ridiculous. GFS sniffed out, like it always does, that the torch was going to continue and now the other operational models have followed suit and the ensembles will be next to go. Just 3-4 days before what was expected to be the pattern change too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is a snapshot of just how undecided things are even at day 9 on the 12z Op runs… Long way to go even for even the first few days of the year to be decided. It’s gone. Seasonable cold is now 10+ days away. The writing is on the wall. This is the same goddamn thing that kept happening and happening last year, and it fucking sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Dude, didn’t I ask you to give it a break on Christmas Eve on here…. Besides, everything is just fine with everything I’m seeing & most respected pros are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Lol, Apparently they don’t teach how to look at a weather model in western PA. We get a nice happy hour run event & yet still get bizarre posts. Maybe too much egg nog for him? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Lol, Apparently they don’t teach how to look at a weather model in western PA. We get a nice happy hour run event & yet still get bizarre posts. Maybe too much egg nog for him?Blizz I'll toast some 18 year whiskey to that beautiful runSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Each of the 12z Canadian & Euro Op model runs-they end at day 10-ended with a cold look. The 18z GFS Op that ends at day 16 ended cold as well with another storm chance coming if the run extended a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 18z GEFS pattern & temps still look good for the 7 day period for day 9 through 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 @canderson I'm still waiting for a full report on that bar and cocktails in London Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: @canderson I'm still waiting for a full report on that bar and cocktails in London Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Since you asked … The classic martini made table side at Connaught Bar is the stuff of dreams. This was amazing from the Brown’s Hotel bar - Old Tom gin, amaro lucano anniversario, liquorice, grand marnier, balsamic vinegar Also had this there - Umeshu, manzanilla sherry, lacto fermented pineapple, wray & nephew rum This exceeded expectations by a great value and you should add it to the menu - Nordes Gin, Jasmine Patchouli Liquor, Jasmine Syrup, Lime The best restaurant in the world, Gymkhana, made this great drink - Tanqueray Gin, Curry Leaf, Ginger, Lemon, Egg White, Tonic Bitters This was joyous and earthy - Black Truffle Gin, Red Vermouth, Campari, Parmigiano Cheese Lots of beers from pubs. The Founders Special Ale (1st pic) was especially terrific. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, Apparently they don’t teach how to look at a weather model in western PA. We get a nice happy hour run event & yet still get bizarre posts. Maybe too much egg nog for him? Truly, if you have a block button use it on him. I had to stop posting in the W. PA thread. The negativity from him is too much. It’s only weather, you can’t let it ruin every aspect of your life, but he does. But, anyway, I’d lock that run in in a heart beat. Hopefully, the GFS is on to something. Seems it can sniff stuff out from this distance, then loses it, only for it to come back. We’ll see though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Truly, if you have a block button use it on him. I had to stop posting in the W. PA thread. The negativity from him is too much. It’s only weather, you can’t let it ruin every aspect of your life, but he does. But, anyway, I’d lock that run in in a heart beat. Hopefully, the GFS is on to something. Seems it can sniff stuff out from this distance, then loses it, only for it to come back. We’ll see though. Please post in here whenever you would like. We welcome posters from other forums that contribute decent information & positively impact the conversation whenever possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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