December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!

[*Flash*]

5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

I'm really digging the setup for next weekend through New Year's week. Cold will be in place. Just need the storm tracks to cooperate.

Right now. I have more confidence in the cold air cooperating than the moisture, granted my take is skewed to my location somewhat. My gut thinks southern parts of our viewing areas may be able to cash in a little extra this winter due to better proxy to hyper STJ's. As for the short term, fingers crossed this isn't a late December 2017 repeat. If I recall correctly, we had plenty of cold air to play with then...just couldn't get the connection with any QPF. I'm with you. Let's hope we can 'dig' the setup...literally.

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GEFS has a coastal storm signal around the 28/29th.  Zero idea if it will be cold enough or if placement will be decent, but the weak low placement is there.   There is also a stronger signal after 300.

I think we have our chances through the 10th, and then my concerns grow considerably in terms of an extended warm-up.  One MJO plot had the MJO taking 6-7 days per phase once into the warm phases.  Considering there are roughly 4 warm phases.....Going to need some help.  That could happen - see conversations on the previous page.  That said, the MJO has been a decent predictor again this winter so far.  We need to score between Christmas and Jan10, or a long wait might be in store.

February would likely have the MJO hit the mother load of cold phases FWIW.

 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 6z GEFS has a coastal storm signal around the 28/29th.  Zero idea if it will be cold enough or if placement will be decent, but the weak low placement is there.   There is also a stronger signal after 300.

I think we have our chances through the 10th, and then my concerns grow considerably in terms of an extended warm-up.  One MJO plot had the MJO taking 6-7 days per phase once into the warm phases.  Considering there are roughly 4 warm phases.....Going to need some help.  That could happen - see conversations on the previous page.  That said, the MJO has been a decent predictor again this winter so far.  We need to score between Christmas and Jan10, or a long wait might be in store.

February would likely have the MJO hit the mother load of cold phases FWIW.

 

Man, we're completely on the same page. Larry posted on SE Forum irt what we're discussing, giving an explanation on how we get around warm ph. Exactly what we discussed yesterday. He brought up an example and that being last Christmas cold shot being during MJO Ph 5. I just replied you and I had mentioned the ways we get around that in the Tn valley Forum. Thing is, HLB is not guaranteed as we know. Also, cold last Christmas took forever to finally get in here and was short lived. Makes sense with the MJO working against it.

Hopefully, strong blocking will set up, if not our worries are warranted.

P.S, just went back and saw someone had posted Larry's remarks here. Should of looked before I leaped, lol. Btw, a shoutout to Larry, he is top notch in the meteorological community and as a genuine Person.

[*Flash*]

Couldn't help but notice BNA is on pace for a top 10 driest year, close to top 5. I've been following the CPC weekly drought monitors; however, the magnitude by the numbers really hit me today. It's also interesting to note ~20" of annual QPF separate Memphis and Nashville recording stations but both locales are essentially in a severe drought as of the current date. Winter masks the issues but next spring will reveal greater concerns if the long term pattern doesn't produce more precip. 

[fountainguy97]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 6z GEFS has a coastal storm signal around the 28/29th.  Zero idea if it will be cold enough or if placement will be decent, but the weak low placement is there.   There is also a stronger signal after 30th.

 

Yeah watching that secondary system swinging through next Friday closely. I'm not sure the ceiling is very high because it's moving quickly and probably fires a low too late off the coast. But definitely another chance of a bowling ball ULL NW event. 12z gefs almost every member showing some snow for next week. Which is surprisingly high confidence for a NW driven event.

 

i think the real chance for a "big dog" comes shortly after during the 2nd-6th. Nice arctic press on the ensembles first week of January. Suppression is what we like to see at this stage!
 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Overnight euro had John’s New Years storm. 

[Carvers Gap]

This is what we are tracking.....

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Latest outlooks.  Seasonal will work in Jan/Feb.  Drought predicted to persist in middle and western areas of the forum north of I-40.

 

 

 

 

 

[Knoxtron]

FWIW - New Years Storm?

Hugging the EURO Control and ready to be hurt

 

GFS

 

EURO

 

Canadian

 

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

GFS is trying,but this is the fairytale time frame of it.

[fountainguy97]

Dig this a few hundred south and it's a multi-day NW snow event with temps in the low 20s

[Carvers Gap]

12z suite is making me want to go build a fire in the fireplace...man.

[Carvers Gap]

That has to be strat split stuff.........that is a bonafide Arctic outbreak on the GFS late in the run, and the CMC has it inside of 10 days.

[jaxjagman]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1738191160076554407/photo/1

[John1122]

Saw a story a week or so ago that a major strat warming was coming. Hopefully we get the cold and not the other side of the world, if it does split. 

[PowellVolz]

Saw a story a week or so ago that a major strat warming was coming. Hopefully we get the cold and not the other side of the world, if it does split. 

When was the last time we landed on the cold side? Seems like it always goes to Europe


.

[PowellVolz]

Latest outlooks.  Seasonal will work in Jan/Feb.  Drought predicted to persist in middle and western areas of the forum north of I-40.

 


 

 
 
 

Warmer than average in Alaska gives me positive vibes.


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[jaxjagman]

The SOI has crashed the last couple days

 

23 Dec 2023	1006.15	1009.45	-36.43	-2.68	-6.55
22 Dec 2023	1006.81	1009.00	-30.67	-2.01	-6.23
21 Dec 2023	1008.66	1007.70	-14.32	-1.59	-6.04
20 Dec 2023	1009.98	1006.70	-2.28	-1.72	-6.09
19 Dec 2023	1010.66	1006.85	0.47	-1.91	-6.36
18 Dec 2023	1010.45	1006.60	0.67	-1.87	-6.65
17 Dec 2023	1011.50	1006.35	7.42	-1.79	-6.95
16 Dec 2023	1011.48	1005.45	11.99	-2.04	-7.25
15 Dec 2023	1010.25	1005.75	4.05	-2.78	-7.56

 

By the looks of this afternoons GEFS it shows a ridge in East Asia around the New Year then followed by troughs.East Asia should turn cold again like several days ago but this time as it turns cold its showing better teleconnections for us.When it got cold in East Asia several days ago we was dealing with a +ve NAO/AO this time its quite opposite with a more -ve NAO/AO.But if everything holds we should see a ridge in the east into the first week of Jan then a chance to be colder as we get into wk2 

[John1122]

39 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

When was the last time we landed on the cold side? Seems like it always goes to Europe


.

2021. The SSW started January 5th and lasted through the 23rd or so. It was an ice box in February but mostly from the Plateau and west. It's the year Texas froze. 

2018 was just brutal but it was late winter and we froze in March instead of it happening at a decent time. 

 

There was a weak on in January 2015 as well. We were extremely cold then too. 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Warmer than average in Alaska gives me positive vibes.


.

Party comes to an end around the 10th, before a likely long pause in winter....hope we can score prior to that.  MJO begins to really work around us.  Though oddly, the surface maps are still cold as NA really starts to cool off during the first half of January.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

When was the last time we landed on the cold side? Seems like it always goes to Europe


.

SSW order of probability:

1.  Asia

2. Western NA

3.  Eastern NA

With the Nino in place, our chances are much higher.  The last one affected the western 2/3 of the forum area due to Nina and a stout SE ridge.  There is an eastern ridge in LR modeling around d15, and the MJO really likes the warm phases (snail's pace)...so it could drop into the Rockies for about a 20-30 day time frame, and return during the first week or second week of Feb to the East.  When it finally comes east, I doubt there is a SER to stop it...and the cold goes all of the way to the coast w/ cold centered over the Apps last of Jan through all of Feb.

[PowellVolz]

2021. The SSW started January 5th and lasted through the 23rd or so. It was an ice box in February but mostly from the Plateau and west. It's the year Texas froze. 
2018 was just brutal but it was late winter and we froze in March instead of it happening at a decent time. 
 
There was a weak on in January 2015 as well. We were extremely cold then too. 
 

 

I remember that now. Wasn’t it like 70 in Knoxville with snow and ice in WTn at the same time?


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[*Flash*]

General ob in passing as I read today's updates: It sure seems whatever transpires in the short to mid-term pattern-wise will be fluid with a decent ceiling for amplification. I will not speak to any specific system timing; however, it sure seems like there's a better chance of local winter weather mischief as opposed to a grinch-like torchy pattern locking in. The latest weather vids I've watched from DT and BamWx have been encouraging. Even when you talk about MJO progression into mild phases, it seems we have half the primary NA teleconnections cooperating at any given time. Not seeing much evidence to unfavorable stalls anywhere. I'll take it two days into calendar winter. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Party comes to an end around the 10th, before a likely long pause in winter....hope we can score prior to that.  MJO begins to really work around us.  Though oddly, the surface maps are still cold as NA really starts to cool off during the first half of January.

Larry had a bit of Info on the MJO Phases and the years noted that stayed cold during warm phases in SE Sub forum. Some good ones in there. January 1978 was one. It was cold and snowy the entire month here. Also , January 2010. He also showed the ones in which it was warm as well. Hard to believe but, they were nearly even. A slight hedge on warm side 51% I think. Blocking and El nino appears to be the difference maker. 

[Met1985]

Just my two cents but I think we don't end up seeing a big torch this winter. I think maybe west Tennessee may see the worst of it but I think the more east and south you get the better temps will be oddly but that's how Ninos go. I think we may see more of a lull than anything.  But great analysis as always from @Carvers Gap. Hopefully we can score something the next 2 to 3 weeks. 

[Itryatgolf70]

I took a week break from the forums and hopefully things get going and I'm hoping the mjo don't crawl through the warm phases and wasting a main winter month! February can be cold but it's only 28 days and then we battle the higher sun angle. 

[fountainguy97]

GEFS taking a big jump overnight with our NW event.

 

wow big changes on the 06z gfs. 3-4 isobar closed ULL now.

[Carvers Gap]

10 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Just my two cents but I think we don't end up seeing a big torch this winter. I think maybe west Tennessee may see the worst of it but I think the more east and south you get the better temps will be oddly but that's how Ninos go. I think we may see more of a lull than anything.  But great analysis as always from @Carvers Gap. Hopefully we can score something the next 2 to 3 weeks. 

If we get an NAO(and the SER doesn't hook into it which is shown on one model his AM....can't remember which, maybe the GEPS???), we have a chance maybe to just keep seasonal temps in place which will work in January

Overall, nice model runs overnight with things to track prior to MJO questions....

[Carvers Gap]

Blizzard warnings have been raised over the Plains.  That, in turn, sets the stage for a colder pattern over our area to be ushered in later this week..

[Carvers Gap]

Plenty to track before this timeframe, but this is worth a share.  Here is how we escape from a bad Pac.  The big red ball is in the right place.