December 2023 Mid/Long Term Pattern Discussion: Let it Snow!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Merry Christmas all, 

Here is the 3D Vortex I mentioned from yesterday:

Not much else to add but this 3D gif present. 

[PowellVolz]

NM…

[jaxjagman]

17 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Merry Christmas all, 

Here is the 3D Vortex I mentioned from yesterday:

Not much else to add but this 3D gif present. 

Finally updated today it looked good yesterday but not today

[PowellVolz]

https://x.com/trackersacker/status/1739320860689813504?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


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[Met1985]

48 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Finally updated today it looked good yesterday but not today

We don't need a complete split really.  Heck look at last year. We had a split and then the rest of winter sucked because it because super strong after the split. We can do a lot with the tpv elongated still. 

[John1122]

The GFS keeps having some version of this around New Years give or take 24 hours. The 18z was a good run for the east middle and eastern areas mostly. Odd snowhle in NE Tn.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS ensemble looks very good BTW for a large chunk of the state for the entire run.  Decent signal on the operational and ensemble for this weekend in NE TN, but this is woefully tough for modeling to figure out....changes are not done yet - I feel confident in saying that only.

[Daniel Boone]

43 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS keeps having some version of this around New Years give or take 24 hours. The 18z was a good run for the east middle and eastern areas mostly. Odd snowhle in NE Tn.

 

Well if it's anything like it was with last weeks event, expect double the amounts shown. Snowhole basically going up through higher eles of Russell County too. I don't see how it came with that " conclusion". Lighter precip northern shield maybe . Downsloping ne valley , none central.?.. Probably just being GooFuS like last week. 

[Carvers Gap]

 

[Carvers Gap]

I think what we are about to see is the opening salvo of winter, followed by an undetermined but warm pause, and then multiple repeats of Jan1-10 from roughly Jan22-end of Feb.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think what we are about to see is the opening salvo of winter, followed by an undetermined but warm pause, and then multiple repeats of Jan1-10 from roughly Jan22-end of Feb.

Makes sense. 

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think what we are about to see is the opening salvo of winter, followed by an undetermined but warm pause, and then multiple repeats of Jan1-10 from roughly Jan22-end of Feb.

Yeah this has been one of the best looks we've seen in a bit especially for a widespread snowfall. 

[Carvers Gap]

51 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah this has been one of the best looks we've seen in a bit especially for a widespread snowfall. 

Last year, the writing was on the wall by this time - the trough was retreating into the West and was done in the East.  @Itryatgolf70saw if first, and was correct.  This time around, I think we are looking at a legitimate winter pattern during the last half of winter.  My only concern(and it is significant) is the MJO really crawls through the warm phases which surprises me.    I did no foresee that.   The MJO was a little more quick about its business this morning on the CPC site.  But really, the MJO shouldn't be dawdling in the warm phases at all.   Cosgrove thinks this is a natural reset after the early cold of Jan.  He has been adamant that the last week of Jan and most of Feb could be a strong winter wx pattern for the Plains -> eastward.  Looks like a classic set-up IMHO.  What is crazy, it reminds me a lot of a combination of 95-96(weak Nina) and 14-15.  Those are big winters, and I apologize to everyone for sensationalizing a bit much....but the pattern wear cold hits in early January, retreats, and then returns is a normal pattern progression for this forum area.  Maybe since we are a little warmer this go around, it will be like 14-15(light).   Later this month and/or early Feb....If the NAO combines with an MJO 7-8-1-2-3 progression along with the QBO descending, that is a great set-up.  Now, it could miss.  We do live where it wants to rain most of the time....but it certainly looks like a very cold set-up is building for North America.  

[fountainguy97]

What a strange system this is shaping up to be. A random chunk of precip just sits over tri-cities into WV for over a day as the ULL slowly churns.  
 

not sure I've ever seen anything like this. Trends are for more separation and the ULL to remain closed off longer which is good for snow. Need that to continue.

 

[jaxjagman]

 

6 hours ago, Met1985 said:

We don't need a complete split really.  Heck look at last year. We had a split and then the rest of winter sucked because it because super strong after the split. We can do a lot with the tpv elongated still. 

Yeah i know,i agree with you.I'm hoping it dont myself,almost showing shades of like 2020-21 sorta

 

[Met1985]

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

 

Yeah i know,i agree with you.I'm hoping it dont myself,almost showing shades of like 2020-21 sorta

 

Oh yeah and not negating your post at all. Just sharing some past history insight. I mean maybe if we do get a split this time the tpv just stays weak.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GOES derived lightning strikes, looks like a nice one over Spence Field and Thunderhead mt. I guess that seals the deal for late this week/ weekend? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah i know,i agree with you.I'm hoping it dont myself,almost showing shades of like 2020-21 sorta

One thing we do have working for us this time is ENSO. Certainly not saying a SSW couldn't mess up any pattern, but hopefully now that Nino is flexing we can keep the SPV stressed. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GEFS is very decent for most of the forum.  And yeah, this weekend is wild on modeling.  I would guess this would jog north a bit.  But the Euro has a much different location.  Fun to track.

[jaxjagman]

6 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Oh yeah and not negating your post at all. Just sharing some past history insight. I mean maybe if we do get a split this time the tpv just stays weak.

Nah,we're good and no worries,I knew what you meant

[Carvers Gap]

We are very likely going to have to get help from a -NAO as the MJO is about to go to crap after the 10th....crawl, and I mean potentially crawl through the warm phases.  I am talking like 20 days just to get through two phases on one model plot.  Then, there is also a group of model plots which slam into phase 3, can't advance, and then rotate through the COD.  That said, I think modeling has a bias for being too low with amplitude this winter.  I was honestly surprised to see the MJO plots this morning as global ensembles don't seem to be synced in comparison with what their (ext) weeklies yesterday were portraying.  Those were some very BIG moves on ensembles last night re: 500 structure after the 10th.  Both the 6z GEFS and 0z EPS broke from continuity, and had a much colder solution.  The best I can tell is that the NAO/AO couplet may tray to take over as the main driver.  The NAO is showing up quite nicely on LR global ensembles(not the Weeklies...but within 16 days type of stuff).  As one friend noted, beware....modeling has showing that great look only to hook the NAO into an eastern ridge.  So, proceed with caution.  I still think we see a really window until maybe the 10th roughly.  Then, we take a 10-25 day break(timeline dependent on the MJO progression), and then we hit a stretch where we see good MJO phases, blocking over the Davis Straits, and ample cold in Canada to draw from.   But....I think there is now potential on the table(lower probability...but plausible) that the lull could evaporate.  

Like yesterday, I think we see an opening salvo, a lull(maybe extended), and then the hammer drops.  Hoping school systems have plenty of time banked.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is a quote from LC this morning.  He actually posted shortly before I posted my previous post(but I hadn't read it yet).  Here is what LC had to say.  Hopefully, he won't mind me quoting him.  If so, I will be glad to take it down....

But the 500MB level outlines show an impressive -AO/-NAO blocking signature emerging by January 11. This is very close to the analog projection, and would support a very cold western two-thirds of the USA vs. a warm East after the 15th of January. There most certainly will be a "Thaw", but probably only 7 to 10 days worth across the lower 48 states before winter comes back full force.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z RGEM has a decent little mini-thump for middle TN and northern Alabama.  I like the RGEM with systems like these.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z RGEM has a decent little mini-thump for middle TN and northern Alabama.  I like the RGEM with systems like these.  

Yep, I was just trying to find a good precip projection for a gif. Might see my first real snowflakes. I don't count the 7 half melted flurries that could have been whirly doodles from a Tulip Poplar a week or so ago. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yep, I was just trying to find a good precip projection for a gif. Might see my first real snowflakes. I don't count the 7 half melted flurries that could have been whirly doodles from a Tulip Poplar a week or so ago. 

Snow here in the 'hood lasted in the shade for about three days.  It wasn't much, but crazy to see a dusting last that long in the shade.  Ya'll are gonna have to get your act together on the Plateau!  LOL.

Yeah, it looks like modeling is consolidating on some energy sliding through middle TN.  It wouldn't surprise me for this to have more precip(per Boone) and also for it to trend NE.  But that is a fairly textbook track for that type of system.  The storm track over the next 14 days should get pushed far, far to the south.  I am actually kind of watching to see if Chattanooga can score in this pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty crazy to see the differences between the GFS and CMC at a 132.  The CMC is missing the southern stream energy completely.  If it was there, that could have been a decent run.  The GFS has energy lagging back a bit in the northern stream.  That system around Jan 1 or 2 is one to watch as well.  

[Carvers Gap]

Basically, what we are trying to "cook-up" is a clipper partially phasing with southern stream energy on the 2nd.  

[Carvers Gap]

And there it is at 171.  That has been on modeling for several days on the GFS.  The 12z GFS is no different.  I would like to see the CMC get on board though with at least having some reflection of southern stream energy.  Without that energy, it is just snow showers and flurries.

[Carvers Gap]

The CMC has a winter storm just before 200h.  That would bring the zr/sn line well south if that verified.  Fun suite today.

[Carvers Gap]

If the MJO was driving the bus, this should park a trough out West.....that is a really cold pattern right there.  Hints of an EPO ridge, NAO(slightly displaced), and a confluence over our latitude.   Normally, I wouldn't show a 360 hour ensemble thumbnail, but go take a look at its past few runs.......this is a big change, and that started overnight.