Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Seriously, the 6z NAM Kuchera is impressive for TRI, SWVA, and the mountains. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2023 Author Share Posted December 8, 2023 The 12z nam taketh away what the 06z giveth. The RGEM is much more consistent but generally much lighter than the best of the NAM runs, which are bouncing from 2-4+ inches to nothing much at all outside the highest peaks, from run to run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, John1122 said: The 12z nam taketh away what the 06z giveth. The RGEM is much more consistent but generally much lighter than the best of the NAM runs, which are bouncing from 2-4+ inches to nothing much at all outside the highest peaks, from run to run. I've seen this story too many times. Backend setups fail 99/100 times. I'd discount anything other than the NW flow after the main precip moves through. Just how these things go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Whew. That is some UGLY looking surface temps stuff on the 12z GEFS after the 20th. There are quite literally no below normal temps over the continental US nor Canada w/ the exception of the Yukon. Woof. LOL. That looks like a warm bias, but the GEFS has been formidable of late. The 12z GEPS looks more realistic for sure. So far, the Euro Weeklies have done a good job hitting the 500 pattern. I would probably trust them more on temps.... I did look at the MJO plots around lunch, they actually look decent. For now, we can say global ensemble trends aren't the best. However, there is quite a disconnect between ensembles, the MJO, and extended weeklies. Again, the mis-forecasted WAR(under modeled its strength) seems to have caused havoc along with a strong area of BN heights in the eastern Pac. As I noted yesterday, we are probably going to have to wait a while for cold temps. My thinking on that hasn't changed today, and I might be even more pessimistic today. I thought December would be warm...but the GEFS is certainly to an extreme I hadn't envisioned. When the cold does show up, it will almost certainly travel over thin snow pack in Canada before it gets here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 All of that said, I do think there is a window for a storm around Dec 17th and again around Christmas Eve. Temps are likely not great, but the timeframe around the 17th has my passing attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 47 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Whew. That is some UGLY looking surface temps stuff on the 12z GEFS after the 20th. There are quite literally no below normal temps over the continental US nor Canada w/ the exception of the Yukon. Woof. LOL. That looks like a warm bias, but the GEFS has been formidable of late. The 12z GEPS looks more realistic for sure. So far, the Euro Weeklies have done a good job hitting the 500 pattern. I would probably trust them more on temps.... I did look at the MJO plots around lunch, they actually look decent. For now, we can say global ensemble trends aren't the best. However, there is quite a disconnect between ensembles, the MJO, and extended weeklies. Again, the mis-forecasted WAR(under modeled its strength) seems to have caused havoc along with a strong area of BN heights in the eastern Pac. As I noted yesterday, we are probably going to have to wait a while for cold temps. My thinking on that hasn't changed today, and I might be even more pessimistic today. I thought December would be warm...but the GEFS is certainly to an extreme I hadn't envisioned. When the cold does show up, it will almost certainly travel over thin snow pack in Canada before it gets here. Up and down..lol..Really agree with you its not very cold in Canada,so even with troughs in the east it dont look very cold ATM unless something changes then in the long range the jet rips through East Asia by the ensembles ensembles so with the +PNA we'll just be dealing with crappie AO and possibly weak+ NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 The Euro control has a monster Apps mauler around the 17th. Let’s see if the pieces stay on future runs...has the potential for a phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 I think we are gonna warm up right before Christmas,then turn on the cooler side as we get into Christmas.The Euro seems to want to keep the MJO signal stuck into the WP until mid Dec,GEFS,GEPS and CFS look more progessive.CFS has been showing it into Africa the last few day as we head into Jan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 One guarantee is it will be cold enough in spring for cold rains. Seems winter arrives in late February through April anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I think we are gonna warm up right before Christmas,then turn on the cooler side as we get into Christmas.The Euro seems to want to keep the MJO signal stuck into the WP until mid Dec,GEFS,GEPS and CFS look more progessive.CFS has been showing it into Africa the last few day as we head into Jan I think the olr charts have the best depiction of mjo. The ensembles will adjust accordingly whenever the mjo gets to the colder phases but we have a ways to go. Hopefully we won't have to throw away many more weeks of unfavorable conditions for colder weather moving forward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 SREF plumes average 0.25 (Knox) - 2 inches Wise/ Roane Mt. Looks like my mood flakes are still on the menu. 18z NAM even looked a little healthier wrt precip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 39 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: SREF plumes average 0.25 (Knox) - 2 inches Wise/ Roane Mt. Looks like my mood flakes are still on the menu. 18z NAM even looked a little healthier wrt precip. The 18z 12kNAM puts down 5-10” (Kuchera) of snow in the eastern mountains. Looks elevation dependent - WxBell algorithm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z 12kNAM puts down 5-10” (Kuchera) of snow in the eastern mountains. Looks elevation dependent - WxBell algorithm. Yeah, I think that's one of the reasons the Nams up and down on Totals. T profile aloft and 2m along with surface T estimate. Rates will be a factor. Hopefully comes in a bit colder and quiker than currently progged and Rates are high so, we lower elevation folks can score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 2 hours ago, jaxjagman said: I think we are gonna warm up right before Christmas,then turn on the cooler side as we get into Christmas.The Euro seems to want to keep the MJO signal stuck into the WP until mid Dec,GEFS,GEPS and CFS look more progessive.CFS has been showing it into Africa the last few day as we head into Jan Yeah, agree. As of now, I think we have a decent shot at a White Christmas actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: All of that said, I do think there is a window for a storm around Dec 17th and again around Christmas Eve. Temps are likely not great, but the timeframe around the 17th has my passing attention. Yeah, I'm pretty confident of one or two decent Snows this Month at least. That 23-24 time looks intriguing to me as of now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 18z GFS has and inland runner - perfect track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Check out the snowfall graphic from MRX on their website. Seems early for them to be putting something like this out, and extremely generous on the graphic. They must like the NAM. I can’t seem to shrink my picture enough to upload it. Anyway, it shows <.05in from Morristown North and East and of course more in the plateau and mtns. It just surprises me they put that out this evening. I figured they’d wait till tomorrow, or even Sunday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 And the 0z NAM is back in.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Good improvement on the NAM! Especially for TRI. Let’s see if it holds or gets even better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I think I like the general look right now. As a more casual observer, this December (and winter so far) definitely looks different than the past couple. Seems like there will be some big potential in the eastern part of the forum even if nothing pans out in the coming weeks. That almost phase around the 17th is interesting as I feel like I haven't seen it in forever. And even this weekend the storm and track look overall much different as TRI could possibly be involved. Is this what El Nino looks like? Pardon my ignorance, but it seems like things have been much more western based the past couple of years. I haven't experienced a legitimate snow day from work in the past 5 years. Please help me out this year, weather! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 The RAP and HRRR are much faster with the arrival of cold air than the other models like the NAM and RGEM. They have snow falling around my area by noonish Sunday. They move the moisture out faster as a result though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Idk abt this one. No cold air supply anywhere to be found. Tons of model support for a storm but nearly 0 support for any snow. 1-2 eps members and 1 gets member. We can fix tracks but it's nearly impossible to fix lack of cold source. going to need the ULL to sit in JUST the right spot to "make its own cold" and I've seen those situations bust 9/10 times haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 RGEM brings the hammer down. Nice to look at. Won't be reality most likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 20 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: SREF plumes average 0.25 (Knox) - 2 inches Wise/ Roane Mt. Looks like my mood flakes are still on the menu. 18z NAM even looked a little healthier wrt precip. 09z Plumes showing some crazy members for TYS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: RGEM brings the hammer down. Nice to look at. Won't be reality most likely. Yeah, the rest has anafrontal development further East. Hopefully they're off and it occurs sooner further west but, hopes are down for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Now hang on.. all of a sudden the RGEM/NAM/and HRRR smoke the border counties with a few hours of heavy paste... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 36 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Now hang on.. all of a sudden the RGEM/NAM/and HRRR smoke the border counties with a few hours of heavy paste... Yeah wouldn't be surprised if this a late bloomer as a weak lee side low tries to develop up the spine of the Apps. Anyone East of I75 above 2000' (1500' north of I40) may be in for a surprise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, TellicoWx said: Yeah wouldn't be surprised if this a late bloomer as a weak lee side low tries to develop up the spine of the Apps. Anyone East of I75 above 2000' (1500' north of I40) may be in for a surprise. Hope ur right. As of now, pretty much all models are getting it going too far East to benefit the Valley and Plateau. I'm hoping things trend West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 5 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, the rest has anafrontal development further East. Hopefully they're off and it occurs sooner further west but, hopes are down for now. I don't really understand how the front catches up east of the mountains with precipitation when it seems like oftentimes fronts can slow down and get hung up on the plateau. I am assuming it has something to do with storm dynamics or low placement? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 I am gonna pull down that recent post. I am going to pause weather discussion (on my part) until the severe wx goes through. Those videos in the severe thread of the tornado in middle TN are heartbreaking. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now