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NorthHillsWx
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Well, PTC has been designated off the Florida coast. Models have really honed in on the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras as a landfall threat. Models are also indicating this could become fully tropical before landfall, and possibly strengthen to a high-end TS. As a short notice event, folks should probably prepare for the equivalent of a hurricane landfall. The forecast track also could be nudged west, as some models are showing. Areas from the Triangle-east need to pay attention. This is likely to produce higher impacts than Idalia for the state.

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Gusts of 40-45 look likely for triangle area. These quasi-tropical systems tend to develop a mean NW rain band. Wherever that sets up will exceed expectations with this storm for inland areas. Coast looks locked in for equivalent of a high-end TS. Track this is taking works to drive a lot of surge up the sounds and rivers. Forecast surge values increased to 3-5’ for some rivers and bays on western sides of the sounds.

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10 hours ago, Stormpc said:

We need some soil soaking rains here in Northeast North Carolina badly. It's been very dry. Just really hope the wind doesn't get too ratcheted up. Tides will be interesting in the usual spots but particularly up in Norfolk and some of the lower areas. 

We need it. I put 350 lbs of seed out last week. 

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4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

If you’ve lived in coastal NC very long, this doesn’t reach excitement level. Kind of like Minneapolis residents and a 4 inch snow.

Honestly, the biggest concern I have with this system is getting 'dry slotted' on the east side.  The afternoon models are starting to hint at this.  We need the rain here in NE NC.

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Officially have Tropical Storm Ophelia.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA... 
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF 
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 76.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
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  • NorthHillsWx changed the title to Tropical Storm Ophelia
1 hour ago, flair_2000 said:

Honestly, the biggest concern I have with this system is getting 'dry slotted' on the east side.  The afternoon models are starting to hint at this.  We need the rain here in NE NC.

We'll have plenty of rain between now and midnight it won't matter. It's a fire hose coming off the Atlantic right now. Pouring on the coast and well inland. It wouldn't be bad to get dry slotted in this case. Two or three inches is plenty. Who knows how this is going to play out. The one given is the next 6 to 10 hours of moderate to heavy rain. That's good enough. And limited power outages

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30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Buoy reports have really ramped up. From cape fear to hatteras all offshore buoys are gusting over 50 with the Onslow bay outer buoy gusting to 65 at the moment. These winds should make it to the coast is the next 3-4 hours

You realize over-water winds do not translate 1:1 on-land?

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Mostly clear with some thin cirus and a handful of little whispy clouds zipping along at a quick pace in Greensboro. Strange sunset lighting with more clouds cover to the East muting the blue sky. Rather breezier than I would have expected although the bendy oaks can be decieving. Hoping for a slower landfall and thus experience a little of the fun in the AM (even though it shouldn't get too exciting anyway)

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4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The center looks to be going right over you this morning 

Had no power or cell this morning so I don't know if it passed over me or just to the west. My lowest pressure was 29.3 at 7 am. Temp was 74 at 8 am and is now 63. We picked up 4.41" with a top wind gust of 28 mph last night. Only small dead branches down 

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