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Central PA Summer 2023


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7 hours ago, CoralRed said:

I just saw this on Twitter about El Nino and thought people would be interested: 

"Wow!

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has had both the most extreme and most accurate forecasts of the developing El Niño. But this forecast, just released, is so extreme it's hard to believe I'm seeing it.

3.0°C by October. 

3.2°C by November."

Chart at link 

https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1671213699875622914?s=20

I've been super interested in how powerful this El Nino gets since we might get a Super El Nino that rivals 2015-2016. Should be interesting

"And to get an idea of just how massive the developing El Niño could be, the previous record high super El Niño peaked at 2.6°C in November/December of 2015. The 1997 El Niño peaked at 2.4°C. And this one is now modelled by the BoM to break 3.0°C."

Jesus christ lol

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2 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I've been super interested in how powerful this El Nino gets since we might get a Super El Nino that rivals 2015-2016. Should be interesting

"And to get an idea of just how massive the developing El Niño could be, the previous record high super El Niño peaked at 2.6°C in November/December of 2015. The 1997 El Niño peaked at 2.4°C. And this one is now modelled by the BoM to break 3.0°C."

Jesus christ lol

As I just said here the other day, I am interested in weather but I am no weenie. But between this, the ice reductions in Arctic & Antarctica & the smoke, I am now seeing a lot more professors & smart ppl appearing to be having fits on the inside while trying to stay calm on the outside, expressing worry and even screaming. I have followed a few so that is one reason I see more but still.... I do not like the trends even though there is so much I do not personally really understand. Just keeping up with basics a challenge.

I am so grateful we are in PA where the extremes are far less extreme than in many other places.

Oh yeah, you may be interested in something else from my Twitter reading today. I saw that we, Australia and I think it was Japan have different rules about El Ninos. We are the ones who make it easier to declare El Nino conditions than Australia. Another thing to think about here.

 

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13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

The carpet and tile guys aren't really enthused over the upcoming rain. Half inch average till end of week.

Breeze picks up today, rain develops tonight

Initially it looked like this ULL was going to pile in moisture and we were bound to get nailed but the models keep backing off and we are losing our cushion between just showers and a big rain.  Some of us may have to rely on tack on showers later in the week though the coverage and density of them is questionable as well. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Initially it looked like this ULL was going to pile in moisture and we were bound to get nailed but the models keep backing off and we are losing our cushion between just showers and a big rain.  Some of us may have to rely on tack on showers later in the week though the coverage and density of them is questionable as well. 

As long as we don't get downpours  training over the same area for a few hours...we should be fine. But I think some place will. 

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1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

Yeah, MU is thinking showers and storms are a "lock" every day now through Sunday. (rain arriving later today/evening, then showers/storms rest of the week)

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

And here are Elliott's thoughts - doesn't sound like he thinks getting water will be an issue:

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

In fact, the June 22nd record low maximum, or "coldest high," temperature of 67°F from 1952 at Millersville may be challenged, tied, or even broken on Thursday. First, we experienced record-dry conditions in May. Next came the toxic smoke from Canadian wildfires and worst air quality in over two decades. That was followed by severe weather and a confirmed tornado in York County last week. Now, we may experience record-cool weather and be digging through the closet for jackets and sweatshirts.

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

In fact, the June 22nd record low maximum, or "coldest high," temperature of 67°F from 1952 at Millersville may be challenged, tied, or even broken on Thursday. First, we experienced record-dry conditions in May. Next came the toxic smoke from Canadian wildfires and worst air quality in over two decades. That was followed by severe weather and a confirmed tornado in York County last week. Now, we may experience record-cool weather and be digging through the closet for jackets and sweatshirts.

Digging through the closet for jackets and sweatshirts for temps in the mid to upper 60s??  Get out of here with that nonsense MU :lol:

Low was 60 here.  First bout of real-deal humidity looks to settle in for the weekend ugh.  Looking forward to copious H2O though.  I think we'll all make out pretty well.

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

In fact, the June 22nd record low maximum, or "coldest high," temperature of 67°F from 1952 at Millersville may be challenged, tied, or even broken on Thursday. First, we experienced record-dry conditions in May. Next came the toxic smoke from Canadian wildfires and worst air quality in over two decades. That was followed by severe weather and a confirmed tornado in York County last week. Now, we may experience record-cool weather and be digging through the closet for jackets and sweatshirts.

How about that! 

One thing that might ruin (hmm, why did I go there) this unique opportunity is the timing of the rain - with the slug of moisture out of here early in the morning tomorrow, I wonder if that will allow temps to rise a few extra degrees. Regardless, cool tomorrow followed by very humid conditions the rest of the week with tropical downpours looks likely. 

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Digging through the closet for jackets and sweatshirts for temps in the mid to upper 60s??  Get out of here with that nonsense MU :lol:

Low was 60 here.  First bout of real-deal humidity looks to settle in for the weekend ugh.  Looking forward to copious H2O though.  I think we'll all make out pretty well.

I had to include that gem.  LOL 

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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Digging through the closet for jackets and sweatshirts for temps in the mid to upper 60s??  Get out of here with that nonsense MU :lol:

Low was 60 here.  First bout of real-deal humidity looks to settle in for the weekend ugh.  Looking forward to copious H2O though.  I think we'll all make out pretty well.

I MIGHT dig through my basement for a sweatshirt if it's in the mid to upper 30s...maybe...

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Digging through the closet for jackets and sweatshirts for temps in the mid to upper 60s??  Get out of here with that nonsense MU :lol:

Low was 60 here.  First bout of real-deal humidity looks to settle in for the weekend ugh.  Looking forward to copious H2O though.  I think we'll all make out pretty well.

I also agree about the rain - I'm stoked. I think most will get at a minimum 2" by Sunday, and some of us at least double that. With a trigger looming plus very high PWATs, there will be some tropical deluges to be sure .

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I also agree about the rain - I'm stoked. I think most will get at a minimum 2" by Sunday, and some of us at least double that. With a trigger looming plus very high PWATs, there will be some tropical deluges to be sure .

Agreed.  I love these setups; more so when it's been dry.  Not so much the humidity ha. 

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