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Spring/Summer Mid-Long Term Discussion


John1122
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Backtracking to the freeze damage conversation, I moved into a newly constructed house last fall with new landscaping. Of the 10 shrubs that were planted, only 4 remain visibly alive. 2 others have very little foliage, and the remaining 4 appear quite dead. I have also seen totally dead magnolia trees around town. Not sure if that's related.

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2 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

Backtracking to the freeze damage conversation, I moved into a newly constructed house last fall with new landscaping. Of the 10 shrubs that were planted, only 4 remain visibly alive. 2 others have very little foliage, and the remaining 4 appear quite dead. I have also seen totally dead magnolia trees around town. Not sure if that's related.

It’s truly unbelievable how many dead trees & shrubs are throughout TN. Many started coming out then just stopped.   My monkey grass has even struggled this year.  

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Evidently we are not the only ones....disco out of Great Falls, MT.

We had 2 locations yesterday (June 21, 2023) break their low temperature record! Cut Bank whose previous record was 34°F in 1983. The new record is 31°F. Great Falls whose previous record was 37°F in 1942, 1995, and 1997. The new record is 33°F.

Just looking at the years, I don't see a ton of commonalities.  The Mountain West was really warm earlier this month.  However, the parade of constant "cooler" air masses finally backed into their area.  While those temps are not uncommon at higher elevations, those are cold for lower elevations out there.  I once saw 5" of snow during mid-June in West Yellowstone.   Rolled in off Lion's Head like one of those old dust storm picks from the Dust Bowl.  

 

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At this time last year we were so dry we were having near desert level temp spreads. Lows in the 40s the 21st and 22nd but highs in the 90s. 

The last time we had a high in the 60s in June before this year was 2015 I think and that was early month. We had several 71s and 72s. But 60s for highs were uncommon. 40s for lows in June happen pretty frequently. 

I know we had a low 70s day in July fairly recently but I can't remember if we pulled off any 60s for highs in July.  

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It has been hugely delayed in it's arrival. Still no 90 degree reading IMBY this year. That streak looks to come to an end on Thursday with a high of 94 predicted for KCHA. I typically run 2-4 degrees cooler. We almost made it to July 1 without seeing 90. I can't ever remember that happening before.

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Summer of 2000...I think that is the year that it just stayed nice all summer long.  Maybe hit 90 3x at TRI which is maybe the least I can remember.  Looks like it was a weak La Nina year - normally those summers are HOT.  Matthew, there is a year where the wx didn't fit the SST analog.  I prob should check the PDO.  Check that, I did just check the PDO.  Looks like the PDO is about to shift to a negative phase which is good for us.  That might correlate to cooler temps.  The summer of 2000 had a descending and -PDO.  As Jeff noted, the current PDO has been stubborn positive.  If we go negative this month or next, maybe there is something there.  That PDO set-up is likely the cause of the perpetual trough out west during the past several winters.  As with any index, there aren't overly effective without others in combo.  My best winter is 14-15 which was a strongly positive PDO.  That said, some really nice -PDO winters on this grid.

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

But there is another summer that started off awesome like this one....and then the TX heat ridge built into TN(I think), and we roasted.  I don't know if I want to look that one up!  LOL.

 

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5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 

Any pay sites have access to this yet OR is this the actually Euro?  In other words, is there a ECMWF-IFS and also a ECMWF....or is it all under the same model?  I wouldn't mind giving it a look if someone has free site access or if I can sign up for a free-trial at a pay site.

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Yeah, the heat is gonna be rippin' for the next few days.  Seems like TX heat almost always finds a way into our area when it builds there.  The good thing is that yet another anomalous cool air mass is in the 6-10 day range.  But for now, the furnace is set on high.

@Holston_River_Rambler, did we get a report on your trip out west?

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Not sure if the next MCS will reach here or not. I only got a shower off the stuff moving over today. It's potent right now to the NW. 

The clouds and shower did significantly hold temps down today. Was predicted to be 91 a couple days ago, but we only hit 78 today. Forecast was 94 tomorrow, now it's 87. 

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One more day without a 90F reading, and TRI will pitch a shutout.  Temp tomorrow is supposed to be 89-90F....gonna be close.  Warmest temp at TRI was on June 3rd with 89.  IMO, we just dodged about four weeks of summer.  In my book, that is a win.

 

John, I like that kind of temperature bust.  

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Not sure if the next MCS will reach here or now. I only got a shower off the stuff loving over today. It's potent right now to the NW. 

The clouds and shower did significantly hold temps down today. Was predicted to be 91 a couple days ago, but we only hit 78 today. Forecast was 94 tomorrow, now it's 87. 

Short range models are not doing a good job,looks like its headed towards East Tn tho,we got some good storms here from the first MCS,wind and lots of rain and some rumbles

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

One more day without a 90F reading, and TRI will pitch a shutout.  Temp tomorrow is supposed to be 89-90F....gonna be close.  Warmest temp at TRI was on June 3rd with 89.  IMO, we just dodged about four weeks of summer.  In my book, that is a win.

 

John, I like that kind of temperature bust.  

Still holding on here too. We hit 89.2. A well timed shower or two over the next few days could mean mid July for the first 90 degree day.

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Will it happen?

TRI has gone a whopping 24 straight days with below normal temps.  We have yet to hit 90 this year. As Wagner noted, if we stay below 90 today, the month of June is a shutout for 90 degree temps.   It is going to be a close call today at TRI as to whether both of those streaks continue.  An MCS is rolling through now at 5:50AM.

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