El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

OHC has topped out for at least the time being:

[snowman19]

There won't be a La Nina pattern this year....agreed. None of the seasonal models show a La Nina pattern either....they all show big +PNA with STJ riding underneath it.
The polar domain and the Aleutian low position will determine whether it's a good pattern for the northeast or not.

That’s where the north PAC looks really weird to me….-NAO/-AO aside, the models have a super El Niño and the Aleutian Low way west with a -EPO. Maybe it actually does happen? But to believe a +2.3C anomaly in region 3.4 in January (Euro) and a north PAC look like that right now is a bit of a stretch. If the models still show that come November, then it will get interesting and that atmospheric response will not match any of the super El Niños in recent history (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16)

[GaWx]

Look at this Nino 1+2 plunge per OISST! It is pretty safe to say that the top is in (though nothing is certain). The model consensus agrees. Look for a short term correction, however, as usually occurs after a very steep move in whatever direction:

 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Look at this Nino 1+2 plunge per OISST! It is pretty safe to say that the top is in (though nothing is certain). The model consensus agrees. Look for a short term correction, however, as usually occurs after a very steep move in whatever direction:

 

You go CFS, you go!!!!  

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s where the north PAC looks really weird to me….-NAO/-AO aside, the models have a super El Niño and the Aleutian Low way west with a -EPO. Maybe it actually does happen? But to believe a +2.3C anomaly in region 3.4 in January (Euro) and a north PAC look like that right now is a bit of a stretch. If the models still show that come November, then it will get interesting and that atmospheric response will not match any of the super El Niños in recent history (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16)

the thing is that per MEI, the atmospheric response has never mimicked any of the last super Ninos at any point in the spring or summer. there has never been a strong WWB in the western Pacific either, as all of those years had

although ONI is moderate to near strong, this is still acting like a weak event (likely acting like a moderate to low-end strong one for the winter) and the models are showing that. it's not that far-farfetched once you throw out the raw ONI and look at how things are actually behaving

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Look at this Nino 1+2 plunge per OISST! It is pretty safe to say that the top is in (though nothing is certain). The model consensus agrees. Look for a short term correction, however, as usually occurs after a very steep move in whatever direction:

 

the shift towards a basin-wide event continues. seasonals have nailed that evolution

[snowman19]

You go CFS, you go!!!!  

Only took since mid-March to finally get the drop right….

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s where the north PAC looks really weird to me….-NAO/-AO aside, the models have a super El Niño and the Aleutian Low way west with a -EPO. Maybe it actually does happen? But to believe a +2.3C anomaly in region 3.4 in January (Euro) and a north PAC look like that right now is a bit of a stretch. If the models still show that come November, then it will get interesting and that atmospheric response will not match any of the super El Niños in recent history (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16)

I think there's plenty of reasons to not assume the usual monster GOA low or even if there is a GOA low, there's reason to assume it won't be as overpowering as other super ninos:

1. Our sample of super Ninos is really small. If you include 1925-26, then we get another and that Super Nino did have a further west Aleutian low. Also, you left out 1965-66 which didn't match any of those examples....1965-66 almost acted like a La Nina at times despite being borderline super at 2.0 ONI peak. I supposed you could put '65-66 into very strong territory, but I'm not sure the usefulness of parsing 0.1C to eliminate it from the already tiny sample.

2. Relative to the waters near and just west of the dateline. this Super Nino isn't as "super" as the others on your list. So does that make this act more like a strong Nino ala 1957-58 where there was a GOA low but not so strong to overpower everything? Hard to say.

3. This isn't guaranteed to even be a Super Nino yet. It's probably still favored, but it might end up closer to 1.8-2.0 range too. But again, is the ONI peak all that matters here? RONI and MEI are severely lagging the other super ninos. They will need to make an incredible surge to reach those years.

4. Our sample of Super Ninos is really small.

5. Our sample of Super Ninos is really small.

 

 

Sorry I repeated the sample size issue, but I believe it's very important to acknowledge.

[so_whats_happening]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

OHC has topped out for at least the time being:

Yea you can see cooling taking shape in the WPAC finally which has been soo slow and the far EPAC around 1+2 and very eastern edge of 3 have cooled as well. We need to see a strong WWB again to take that next big jump but until then the trades are holding on decent across the area with a minor weakening showing up around region 4 by the end of the month, may spark a small KW that induces a small spike in temps. Otherwise things should hold steady or slightly cool for the time being. waiting for when that next strong push is coming and with the cooling of the WPAC starting up that warm pool is fading to feed this ENSO. How things react the next 3 weeks should tell us a lot how things go forward.

Would have included prior times but I don't believe they have an archive with TAO data. In another post Ill include prior sst/subsurface in past strong EL Nino for what September averaged.

 

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1. Our sample of super Ninos is really small. If you include 1925-26, then we get another and that Super Nino did have a further west Aleutian low.

Where are you seeing that 1925-6 was a super Nino? According to the Eric Webb table at the following link, the ONI maxed at just +1.5 (low end strong):

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Where are you seeing that 1925-6 was a super Nino? According to the Eric Webb table at the following link, the ONI maxed at just +1.5 (low end strong):

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

Oh I thought I remember seeing reference to it earlier as a super Nino. I know the data from back then is pretty spotty anyway. 

[GaWx]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh I thought I remember seeing reference to it earlier as a super Nino. I know the data from back then is pretty spotty anyway. 

  Webb's tables, which sometimes get updated even for years going way back, are the best I've seen regarding 3.4 for pre-1950. Also, I use the JMA (see link below) as a secondary source for pre-1950 even though it uses a variation of Nino 3 instead of 3.4. The JMA similar to Webb has 1925-6 as only lower end strong.
 

 Per these two sources, I feel very comfortable calling 1877-8 a super and pretty comfortable calling 1888-9 a super. I see no other definitive super pre-1950 although 1896-7 and 1930-31 are pretty close per both Webb and JMA while 1902-3 is pretty close per Webb.

 

JMA:

https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

 

[so_whats_happening]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

  Webb's tables, which sometimes get updated even for years going way back, are the best I've seen regarding 3.4 for pre-1950. Also, I use the JMA (see link below) as a secondary source for pre-1950 even though it uses a variation of Nino 3 instead of 3.4. The JMA similar to Webb has 1925-6 as only lower end strong.
 

 Per these two sources, I feel very comfortable calling 1877-8 a super and pretty comfortable calling 1888-9 a super. I see no other definitive super pre-1950 although 1896-7 and 1930-31 are pretty close per both Webb and JMA while 1902-3 is pretty close per Webb.

 

JMA:

https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

 

That is such an interesting way to put the values I assume these are anomalies? Thanks for both the sites!

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

That is such an interesting way to put the values I assume these are anomalies? Thanks for both the sites!

You're welcome. Yes, they're anomalies. So, a 15, for example, means +1.5. From the link below, 

"The SST anomalies are in tenths of a degree (times 10)."

and

"Thus for the first record: 1949 999 999 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -8 -10 -11 -13 -13 The anomalies for this year are negative, with a value of -13 indicated a cold equatorial Pacific SST anomaly of -1.3 Deg-C."

https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/Readme.txt

[bluewave]

Not that I am suggesting a repeat of December 2015, but the long range guidance was pretty bad even into late November on the position of the Aleutian low for December. So not surprised that an important detail like a strong MJO 4-6 even during that super El Niño wasn’t well forecast very far in advance. But at least the more traditional blocky version of the El Niño emerged in January and February to save the winter. 
 

Late November forecasts typical El Niño +PNA for December

 
MJO 4-6 gave us the worst La Niña-like December pattern in history despite a super El Nino

 

[griteater]

Playing around with some data again.  Some of this was previously covered, but some not.

 

Criteria 1: 1) El Nino Winters, 2) Winters with-QBO at 40mb on Jan 1, 3) Winter Solar Cycle Phase (Sunspots) = Minimum, Ascending, or Maximum (Descending winters excluded due to known propensity for +NAO...those excluded were 72-73 and 14-15, which both ended up being +AO/+NAO winters)

Table Results...21 of 32 months with -AO/-NAO combo, 7 of 8 with official SSWs (3 of those with multiple SSWs)

 

500mb Pattern Composite Results: Split Flow / West-Based -NAO

 

Removing the 2 Weak El Nino winters (58-59, 79-80) yields the following...similar pattern, but with sharper anomalies: 

 

Criteria 2: All El Nino winters in Descending portion of the Solar Cycle Phase (Sunspots)

Table Results...6 of 32 months with -AO/-NAO combo, 3 of 8 with official SSWs

 

500mb Pattern Composite Results: +AO/+NAO, big ridge over the conus (I couldn't include 2016 in the composite per that webpage)

 

Removing the 3 weak El Nino winters (04-05, 06-07, 14-15) yields the following...similar idea, but with big Gulf of AK low given the high-end Super Nino influence:

 

Will the Hunga Tonga volcano wreck the Criteria 1 composite ideas above (same criteria as this winter) like Pinatubo potentially did in 91-92?  Pinatubo was a particulate emitting volcano / Hunga Tonga emitted water vapor, but both (particulate / water vapor) are believed to be cooling agents in the stratosphere (+AO favored).  We don't really have to speculate about how the excess water vapor is moving around in the earth's stratosphere because we can monitor it in real-time.

First image here shows the presence of higher than normal water vapor in the upper and middle stratosphere (3mb down to 30mb) at 75N (in the Northern Hemisphere Polar Cap), with the plus water vapor anomaly maximized at 10mb:

 

Second image shows the presence of higher than normal water vapor at 10mb in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere (image covers 75 N to the Equator to 75 S for the 10mb level in the stratosphere)

 

That is all.

[raindancewx]

There's never really been any correlation between the PNA and Nino 3.4 in December. It's best to treat ENSO as something that can, but doesn't always influence the various indices. 

The PDO on the other hand, is very strongly correlated to the PNA, much more so than ENSO in Dec-Jan. For Feb/Mar the PDO/ENSO essentially tie. I'm very much more on board with riding the PDO early for temps, and then dulling canonical El Nino effects later if you still have -PDO / +ENSO in Feb-Mar.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_dec.txt

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the new MEI for Jul-Aug is only +0.4! no wonder the seasonal guidance is showing a pattern that's more associated with a moderate event

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

I expect the MEI to peak somewhere in the +1.0-1.5 range at this point, probably by Nov-Dec. it'll be enough to couple... a winter like 2018-19 is the least of my concerns right now

Totally agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Playing around with some data again.  Some of this was previously covered, but some not.

 

Criteria 1: 1) El Nino Winters, 2) Winters with-QBO at 40mb on Jan 1, 3) Winter Solar Cycle Phase (Sunspots) = Minimum, Ascending, or Maximum (Descending winters excluded due to known propensity for +NAO...those excluded were 72-73 and 14-15, which both ended up being +AO/+NAO winters)

Table Results...21 of 32 months with -AO/-NAO combo, 7 of 8 with official SSWs (3 of those with multiple SSWs)

 

500mb Pattern Composite Results: Split Flow / West-Based -NAO

 

Removing the 2 Weak El Nino winters (58-59, 79-80) yields the following...similar pattern, but with sharper anomalies: 

 

Criteria 2: All El Nino winters in Descending portion of the Solar Cycle Phase (Sunspots)

Table Results...6 of 32 months with -AO/-NAO combo, 3 of 8 with official SSWs

 

500mb Pattern Composite Results: +AO/+NAO, big ridge over the conus (I couldn't include 2016 in the composite per that webpage)

 

Removing the 3 weak El Nino winters (04-05, 06-07, 14-15) yields the following...similar idea, but with big Gulf of AK low given the high-end Super Nino influence:

 

Will the Hunga Tonga volcano wreck the Criteria 1 composite ideas above  (same criteria as this winter) like Pinatubo potentially did in 91-92?  Pinatubo was a particulate emitting volcano / Hunga Tonga emitted water vapor, but both (particulate / water vapor) are believed to be cooling agents in the stratosphere (+AO favored).  We don't really have to speculate about how the excess water vapor is moving around in the earth's stratosphere because we can monitor it in real-time.

First image here shows the presence of higher than normal water vapor in the upper and middle stratosphere (3mb down to 30mb) at 75N (in the Northern Hemisphere Polar Cap), with the plus water vapor anomaly maximized at 10mb:

 

Second image shows the presence of higher than normal water vapor at 10mb in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere (image covers 75 N to the Equator to 75 S for the 10mb level in the stratosphere)

 

That is all.

I don't see why Hungo Tonga would impact this year but not last year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think there's plenty of reasons to not assume the usual monster GOA low or even if there is a GOA low, there's reason to assume it won't be as overpowering as other super ninos:

1. Our sample of super Ninos is really small. If you include 1925-26, then we get another and that Super Nino did have a further west Aleutian low. Also, you left out 1965-66 which didn't match any of those examples....1965-66 almost acted like a La Nina at times despite being borderline super at 2.0 ONI peak. I supposed you could put '65-66 into very strong territory, but I'm not sure the usefulness of parsing 0.1C to eliminate it from the already tiny sample.

2. Relative to the waters near and just west of the dateline. this Super Nino isn't as "super" as the others on your list. So does that make this act more like a strong Nino ala 1957-58 where there was a GOA low but not so strong to overpower everything? Hard to say.

3. This isn't guaranteed to even be a Super Nino yet. It's probably still favored, but it might end up closer to 1.8-2.0 range too. But again, is the ONI peak all that matters here? RONI and MEI are severely lagging the other super ninos. They will need to make an incredible surge to reach those years.

4. Our sample of Super Ninos is really small.

5. Our sample of Super Ninos is really small.

 

 

Sorry I repeated the sample size issue, but I believe it's very important to acknowledge.

Exactly. 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see why Hungo Tonga would impact this year but not last year. 

In the polar cap north of 60N, it looks like the significant water vapor anomalies didn't kick in until the start of January (2023).  We'll have to see what happens this Oct-Nov.  Hopefully we don't see an ice cold stratosphere develop in that timeframe.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, griteater said:

In the polar cap north of 60N, it looks like the significant water vapor anomalies didn't kick in until the start of January (2023).  We'll have to see what happens this Oct-Nov.  Hopefully we don't see an ice cold stratosphere develop in that timeframe.

Well, it certainly didn't impact March-

-1.11 NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have 91-92 as descending solar...

[griteater]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have 91-92 as descending solar...

The monthly curve spikes a bit to kickoff 1992 so I have it still in the solar max phase, but it's a close call.  I would call the winters of 93, 94, and 95 as descending.  That paper probably goes into the specifics on how they designate each phase within the solar cycle curves.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, its after the peak, so its descending to me...but to each their own.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

There's never really been any correlation between the PNA and Nino 3.4 in December. It's best to treat ENSO as something that can, but doesn't always influence the various indices. 

The PDO on the other hand, is very strongly correlated to the PNA, much more so than ENSO in Dec-Jan. For Feb/Mar the PDO/ENSO essentially tie. I'm very much more on board with riding the PDO early for temps, and then dulling canonical El Nino effects later if you still have -PDO / +ENSO in Feb-Mar.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_dec.txt

 

The record -PDO from the fall into winter 21-22 was no match for the WPAC warm pool forcing west of the Dateline which resulted in a strong January +PNA and record snows on Long Island. So more and more the WPAC is having a much greater influence on our climate than the ENSO regions further east. Forcing just west to the Dateline is a fantastic winter pattern for us. But a little further west near Indonesia gives us record warmth. Unfortunately, the MJO 4-6 forcing near Indonesia is occupying more time during our winters since 15-16 than the 7-8 region west of Dateline which was dominant in 14-15. 

[raindancewx]

Apparently, it was in December though? It's not like the warm pool wasn't there in December.

You can predict whatever you want. But I'll take my chances on the PDO given that the western warm pool will continue to weaken relative to norms while the ENSO will be most pronounced relative to norms in that time frame.

[bdgwx]

In the spirit of RONI I present a similar metric except instead of being tropically adjusted it is globally adjusted. It is basically the ERSST ENSO3.4 monthly value minus the monthly global average. Similar to what the RONI is saying you can see that this ENSO cycle is attenuated relative to the global average. For point of comparison the August ENSO3.4 value was 1.3 while the value in the graph below is 0.8.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

New NMME: slightly warmer than prior run with NN most of US; E US actually about coldest in entire N Hem

Forgot the juicy part! 

[brooklynwx99]

NMME has the typical backloaded winter with a warm Dec and very favorable Feb/Mar

it’s worth nothing that the CFS has higher weight in this ensemble, and it is easily the warmest of the seasonals. regardless, still looks great overall