El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

I think there's plenty of reasons to not assume the usual monster GOA low or even if there is a GOA low, there's reason to assume it won't be as overpowering as other super ninos:
1. Our sample of super Ninos is really small. If you include 1925-26, then we get another and that Super Nino did have a further west Aleutian low. Also, you left out 1965-66 which didn't match any of those examples....1965-66 almost acted like a La Nina at times despite being borderline super at 2.0 ONI peak. I supposed you could put '65-66 into very strong territory, but I'm not sure the usefulness of parsing 0.1C to eliminate it from the already tiny sample.
2. Relative to the waters near and just west of the dateline. this Super Nino isn't as "super" as the others on your list. So does that make this act more like a strong Nino ala 1957-58 where there was a GOA low but not so strong to overpower everything? Hard to say.
3. This isn't guaranteed to even be a Super Nino yet. It's probably still favored, but it might end up closer to 1.8-2.0 range too. But again, is the ONI peak all that matters here? RONI and MEI are severely lagging the other super ninos. They will need to make an incredible surge to reach those years.
4. Our sample of Super Ninos is really small.
5. Our sample of Super Ninos is really small.
 
 
Sorry I repeated the sample size issue, but I believe it's very important to acknowledge.

@ORH_wxman Will, I would think 65-66 acted like a Niña at times due to the -PDO. It was smack dab in the middle of the record strong 50’s-70’s -PDO cycle

[snowman19]

While region 1+2 has probably peaked and cooled to below +3.0C recently, as the models did a good job of showing, it appears there will be another round of warming coming up with another DWKW. While unlikely to exceed +3.5C again, this would fit with the models showing it staying in super status and remaining just below +3.0C through January…. 

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, bdgwx said:

In the spirit of RONI I present a similar metric except instead of being tropically adjusted it is globally adjusted. It is basically the ERSST ENSO3.4 monthly value minus the monthly global average. Similar to what the RONI is saying you can see that this ENSO cycle is attenuated relative to the global average. For point of comparison the August ENSO3.4 value was 1.3 while the value in the graph below is 0.8.

The last time the RONI was at similar summer levels for a developing El Niño was back in 2004. This summer also had the westward forcing lean. Also note the very active hurricane season back in 2004. 2004-2005 was memorable for the El Niño not getting much stronger than it was in August and September. 
 

 

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

While region 1+2 has probably peaked and cooled to below +3.0C recently, as the models did a good job of showing, it appears there will be another round of warming coming up with another DWKW. While unlikely to exceed +3.5C again, this would fit with the models showing it staying in super status and remaining just below +3.0C through January…. 

 

I question where the KW is?

Here is the translation

"

Decrease in sea warming #ElNiñoCostero observed in the last 30 days.
Data: MW (microwave)
#ElNiñoCostero continues, but less intense.

A warm #KelvinWave is still ahead, but its impacts to re-boost warming would be attenuated if the #Anticiclone remains activated.

We continue monitoring...

"

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

NMME has the typical backloaded winter with a warm Dec and very favorable Feb/Mar

it’s worth nothing that the CFS has higher weight in this ensemble, and it is easily the warmest of the seasonals. regardless, still looks great overall

Looks like everything else....Euro, CANSIPs and JMA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last time the RONI was at similar summer levels for a developing El Niño was back in 2004. This summer also had the westward forcing lean. Also note the very active hurricane season back in 2004. 2004-2005 was memorable for the El Niño not getting much stronger than it was in August and September. 
 

 

That was my 3rd most snowy winter in record, behind 1995-1996 and 2014-2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I question where the KW is?

Here is the translation

"

Decrease in sea warming #ElNiñoCostero observed in the last 30 days.
Data: MW (microwave)
#ElNiñoCostero continues, but less intense.

A warm #KelvinWave is still ahead, but its impacts to re-boost warming would be attenuated if the #Anticiclone remains activated.

We continue monitoring...

"

Leave it to snowman to unearth some random Egyptian tweet scratched in hyrogriphics on the inside of a cave to restore hope to the warm crew lol...

Jk.

[George001]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Leave it to snowman to unearth some random Egyptian tweet scratched on the inside of a cave to restore hope to the warm crew lol...

Jk.

Yeah, he likes warmer weather like Torch Tiger. I don’t have a problem with it this year though since he has been for the most part right about how this El Niño would develop so far, and his aggressive forecasts do have model support. If he’s getting excited about a super Nina next year and is saying it will lead to a warm snowless winter, I’ll have more of a problem with it because that isn’t really supported by data. 

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Leave it to snowman to unearth some random Egyptian tweet scratched on the inside of a cave to restore hope to the warm crew lol...

Jk.

He's an expert on tweet discovery 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, he likes warmer weather like Torch Tiger. I don’t have a problem with it this year though since he has been for the most part right about how this El Niño would develop so far, and his aggressive forecasts do have model support. If he’s getting excited about a super Nina next year and is saying it will lead to a warm snowless winter, I’ll have more of a problem with it because that isn’t really supported by data. 

I think there is a great deal of evidence mounting against it....like, every piece of seasonal guidance for instancw... save for maybe the CFS, which he hates, ironically enough.

[snowman19]

Leave it to snowman to unearth some random Egyptian tweet scratched in hyrogriphics on the inside of a cave to restore hope to the warm crew lol...
Jk.

You’re just upset because your Hunga Tonga theory got shot to hell last night. Next time don’t act like a volcanologist lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You’re just upset because your Hunga Tonga theory got shot to hell last night. Next time don’t act like a volcanologist lol

He raised a good point, but I think I offered a nice counter by pointing out the severe blocking that we had last March...for which I never received a response.

[griteater]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He raised a good point, but I think I offered a nice counter by pointing out the severe blocking that we had last March...for which I never received a response.

Ha, indeed I don't have a response because the stratosphere did indeed warm severely (SSW) due to dynamic processes (an extended period of elevated heat flux) right at the time that those + water vapor anomalies kicked in (in January).  All of those processes affecting the strat PV and associated AO/NAO are complex, as you know.  It's possible that the + water vapor anomalies won't have any effect this winter or that the anomalies aren't high enough to cause an effect.  It's also possible that we see a cold stratosphere develop in Oct/Nov, in which case, I would have to believe that the elevated water vapor anomalies are at least partly to blame.  If we can just avoid that cold stratosphere scenario in Oct-Nov, we should be in a really good position for -AO/-NAO this winter given El Nino / QBO / Solar <AND> the seasonal model support.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Ha, indeed I don't have a response because the stratosphere did indeed warm severely (SSW) due to dynamic processes (an extended period of elevated heat flux) right at the time that those + water vapor anomalies kicked in (in January).  All of those processes affecting the strat PV and associated AO/NAO are complex, as you know.  It's possible that the + water vapor anomalies won't have any effect this winter or that the anomalies aren't high enough to cause an effect.  It's also possible that we see a cold stratosphere develop in Oct/Nov, in which case, I would have to believe that the elevated water vapor anomalies are at least partly to blame.  If we can just avoid that cold stratosphere scenario in Oct-Nov, we should be in a really good position for -AO/-NAO this winter given El Nino / QBO / Solar <AND> the seasonal model support.

We'll see what happens. I'm glad you brought that up, though...something to remain mindful of this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know @griteateris aware of this, but its important not to generalize the impact of volcanic eruptions in much the same manner that we used to ENSO, as they come in all shapes, sizes and locales...they have varying impact depending upon the location, global circulation pattern, substances emitted, etc. Assuming a ++AO/NAO as followed Pinatubo just because we had a recent eruption is akin to assuming that every el nino will behave like a modoki and we know how much @snowman19would appreciate that.

[GaWx]

On 9/8/2023 at 8:21 PM, griteater said:

Playing around with some data again.  Some of this was previously covered, but some not.

 

Criteria 1: 1) El Nino Winters, 2) Winters with-QBO at 40mb on Jan 1, 3) Winter Solar Cycle Phase (Sunspots) = Minimum, Ascending, or Maximum (Descending winters excluded due to known propensity for +NAO...those excluded were 72-73 and 14-15, which both ended up being +AO/+NAO winters)

Table Results...21 of 32 months with -AO/-NAO combo, 7 of 8 with official SSWs (3 of those with multiple SSWs)

 

500mb Pattern Composite Results: Split Flow / West-Based -NAO

 

Removing the 2 Weak El Nino winters (58-59, 79-80) yields the following...similar pattern, but with sharper anomalies: 

 

Criteria 2: All El Nino winters in Descending portion of the Solar Cycle Phase (Sunspots)

Table Results...6 of 32 months with -AO/-NAO combo, 3 of 8 with official SSWs

 

500mb Pattern Composite Results: +AO/+NAO, big ridge over the conus (I couldn't include 2016 in the composite per that webpage)

 

Removing the 3 weak El Nino winters (04-05, 06-07, 14-15) yields the following...similar idea, but with big Gulf of AK low given the high-end Super Nino influence:

 

Will the Hunga Tonga volcano wreck the Criteria 1 composite ideas above (same criteria as this winter) like Pinatubo potentially did in 91-92?  Pinatubo was a particulate emitting volcano / Hunga Tonga emitted water vapor, but both (particulate / water vapor) are believed to be cooling agents in the stratosphere (+AO favored).  We don't really have to speculate about how the excess water vapor is moving around in the earth's stratosphere because we can monitor it in real-time.

First image here shows the presence of higher than normal water vapor in the upper and middle stratosphere (3mb down to 30mb) at 75N (in the Northern Hemisphere Polar Cap), with the plus water vapor anomaly maximized at 10mb:

 

Second image shows the presence of higher than normal water vapor at 10mb in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere (image covers 75 N to the Equator to 75 S for the 10mb level in the stratosphere)

 

That is all.

 Would you please provide a link to a table with the monthly 40 mb QBO? TIA

[griteater]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Would you please provide a link to a table with the monthly 40 mb QBO? TIA

I eyeballed the 40mb numbers from the QBO chart from the Free Univ of Berlin - qbo_wind_pdf.pdf (fu-berlin.de)

Unfortunately, they have quit updating that chart, but you can get current data from this page, though in a slightly different format: The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) (nasa.gov)

Don't have a great reason why I settled on using 40mb.  Some people use 30mb, some 50mb.  Some of the strat papers use something like 45mb averaged over Dec-Jan or Jan-Feb.  One reason was that I wanted to capture years like 86-87 and 09-10 as -QBO winters as both of these were -QBO at 30mb and +QBO at 50mb....but I like the Berlin chart, and it helped me understand the progression of the QBO more than any other when I was first learning about it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Cosgrove mentions a potential modoki this season as a possibility. 

[snowman19]

Cosgrove mentions a potential modoki this season as a possibility. 

He kept using 95-96 and 10-11 as his analogs last year and wouldn’t stop insisting that it was about to get very cold and snowy week after week from November through March. It was like he was living in an alternative universe. He was God awful last winter, terrible

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cosgrove mentions a potential modoki this season as a possibility. 

He kept using 95-96 and 10-11 as his analogs last year and wouldn’t stop insisting that it was about to get very cold and snowy week after week from November through March. It was like he was living in an alternative universe. He was God awful last winter, terrible

Yea, he was. Agreed. However, he had been very good over the course of the previous few.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I remember by around the holidays it was obvious mid winter was in trouble, but he just wouldn't back down. I agree with snowman 100% on that.

[George001]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cosgrove mentions a potential modoki this season as a possibility. 

He kept using 95-96 and 10-11 as his analogs last year and wouldn’t stop insisting that it was about to get very cold and snowy week after week from November through March. It was like he was living in an alternative universe. He was God awful last winter, terrible

Yeah those analogs were horrible. 2011-2012 would have been a better analog to use, moderate modoki nina coming off another nina. For La Niñas they are the most favorable immediately after an El Niño, since sometimes you will have the juiced STJ still active and the typical Nina active northern branch. Both 95-96 and 10-11 were ninas immediately following an El Niño. I’m with you on this winter not being great, but I like the look of next winter (decent probability of a La Niña after a super nino this winter). 

[George001]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there is a great deal of evidence mounting against it....like, every piece of seasonal guidance for instancw... save for maybe the CFS, which he hates, ironically enough.

That same seasonal guidance is forecasting a super nino peaking in November/December. If the nino ends up at like +1.6 or something (I highly doubt that based on the latest weeklies already being up to +1.6) I would be more inclined to buy it, but a +2.1 peak? I’m not buying that we have a winter anywhere that cold and snowy during a super nino. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah those analogs were horrible. 2011-2012 would have been a better analog to use, moderate modoki nina coming off another nina. For La Niñas they are the most favorable immediately after an El Niño, since sometimes you will have the juiced STJ still active and the typical Nina active northern branch. Both 95-96 and 10-11 were ninas immediately following an El Niño. I’m with you on this winter not being great, but I like the look of next winter (decent probability of a La Niña after a super nino this winter). 

No, it wouldn't. That season had a power house PV all season long and a black hole over AK. We had neither. I think 2001-2002 was better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

That same seasonal guidance is forecasting a super nino peaking in November/December. If the nino ends up at like +1.6 or something (I highly doubt that based on the latest weeklies already being up to +1.6) I would be more inclined to buy it, but a +2.1 peak? I’m not buying that we have a winter anywhere that cold and snowy during a super nino. 

A few of us have explained ad nauseam why that is the case. Ignore at your own peril.

[snowman19]

That same seasonal guidance is forecasting a super nino peaking in November/December. If the nino ends up at like +1.6 or something (I highly doubt that based on the latest weeklies already being up to +1.6) I would be more inclined to buy it, but a +2.1 peak? I’m not buying that we have a winter anywhere that cold and snowy during a super nino. 

Even the conservative UKMO has the weekly reading up to +1.7C. IMO, this one is going super and I can definitely see something like the new Euro showed

[griteater]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Even the conservative UKMO has the weekly reading up to +1.7C. IMO, this one is going super and I can definitely see something like the new Euro showed

In watching the UKMO, it has actually been on the higher end with SSTs.  Today's reading is down a tick to +1.61

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Even the conservative UKMO has the weekly reading up to +1.7C. IMO, this one is going super and I can definitely see something like the new Euro showed

So, you buy the Euro seasonal?

[griteater]

Copernicus Multi-Model Seasonal Ensemble (C3S) September update is out.  Lots of data / maps if interested: Charts | Copernicus and C3S Model - Global | CyclonicWx

Just glancing thru everything, I'd say they bumped a touch more super nino-ish with less eastern U.S. troughing

Here is a compare of the Aug run vs. the new Sep run for January (500mb pattern)

 

On the bright side, the -OLR and -VP Walker Cell uplift zones bumped west this run along the Dateline (January maps shown)...

 

 

For the Euro component of the output...for stratospheric zonal winds at 10mb, it's still showing a weaker than normal strat PV develop by Jan, though not quite as robust as last month's version

[griteater]

MEI Charts below comparing this year to Super Ninos / Strong Ninos / Moderate Ninos / Weak Ninos.  This is MEI v2 data which only goes back to 1979.  I used 2 Bi-Monthly readings for better smoothing with the chart lines.  As has been discussed in here, the current year is most similar to prior Moderate and Weak El Ninos, and most dissimilar to the Super El Nino years.