snowman19 Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 Why all of that MJO talk? This is an ENSO thread!!Right! Let’s find the coldest and snowiest looking 500mb maps we can find for Jan, Feb, Mar and post them on 7/11!!!! Oh and images of -NAO/-AO, let’s post those too!!! Maybe we can find some rouge Chinese model showing a massive SSWE in December and we can post that in here as well!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Right! Let’s find the coldest and snowiest looking 500mb maps we can find for Jan, Feb, Mar and post them on 7/11!!!! Oh and images of -NAO/-AO, let’s post those too!!! Maybe we can find some rouge Chinese model showing a massive SSWE in December and we can post that in here as well!! were you a hall monitor in school, by any chance? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 PDO held firmly negative in June. https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.92 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z -1.1 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z -1.63 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z -2.18 2023-05-01T00:00:00Z -1.69 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z -1.9 Since 1950, the developing El Nino years following multiple negative ENSO events are 1951, 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2002, 2009, 2014, 2018. 1951, 1963, 1972, 1976, 1982, 2002, 2018 were still very negative PDO looks in June (-0.5 or less). Others were within 0.5 of 0 or positive. 1951-52 remained pretty negative for the PDO into Nov-Apr. The other years flipped to near neutral or positive for Nov-Apr. I was playing around with SSTs again today. 1980-81 is pretty solidly opposite of forecast conditions. This is one of the better matches I've come up with for trying to match both current conditions and what the Canadian has in winter. I do expect the warmest anomalies at the surface to be at 120W though, Canadian has 135-145W. Cold pockets are kind of there west of Australia and North America like now. 1979 and 2003 are both notorious for strong Summer heat waves (I believe we had 20 days+ 100F or hotter here in 1979 - at 5,350 feet up - average is three) in borderline El Nino conditions. Blend is decent on ENSO order and solar conditions (pretty high blended). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Right! Let’s find the coldest and snowiest looking 500mb maps we can find for Jan, Feb, Mar and post them on 7/11!!!! Oh and images of -NAO/-AO, let’s post those too!!! Maybe we can find some rouge Chinese model showing a massive SSWE in December and we can post that in here as well!! Paul Roundy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 SOI looks to relax going into mid month maybe featuring some slightly negative readings with Darwin still having somewhat low pressure around. After that we may have a quick negative spike (I guess depression on charts) before we rebound to near neutral numbers. The Atlantic is showing signs of waking up again after this little bit of activity in the EPAC, I really had thought we would see more activity in the EPAC considering we are in the right time of year for EPAC activity; the WPAC is dead still. The main -VP is still near Maritime region even going into SE Asia at times which does not bode well for an MJO wave in 7,8,1. LR does try to push it to the central PAC but this is still long range this wouldn't be until early August at this point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Paul Roundy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!In other news you have Joe Bastardi tweeting 10 times a day that the El Nino is turning into a full fledged Modoki and it’s going to be the coldest and snowiest winter ever in east coast history. Always a real plus to have that kiss of death on your side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Taking sides seems rather childish. We should be discussing why certain things are happening not mocking fellow colleagues even with some crazy forecasts mention it and move on. You seem to be letting them take up head space for no real reason. Alot of this twitter stuff mentioned above seems to rely solely on the idea that we do have an MJO wave that will form. Until we actually creep out of null im no buying it. JMA has been nailing MJO forecasts so far. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 54 minutes ago, snowman19 said: In other news you have Joe Bastardi tweeting 10 times a day that the El Nino is turning into a full fledged Modoki and it’s going to be the coldest and snowiest winter ever in east coast history. Always a real plus to have that kiss of death on your side When have I ever supported him? I have always agreed with you that his primary focus at this stage of his career is click bait. That being said, I'm not sure why anyone would ignore the strong consensus for dateline forcing next winter. Yes, the el nino continues to be heavily east-based at this time, which accentuates the point that the coming winter will be no slam-dunk of a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 22 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Taking sides seems rather childish. We should be discussing why certain things are happening not mocking fellow colleagues even with some crazy forecasts mention it and move on. You seem to be letting them take up head space for no real reason. Alot of this twitter stuff mentioned above seems to rely solely on the idea that we do have an MJO wave that will form. Until we actually creep out of null im no buying it. JMA has been nailing MJO forecasts so far. I feel as though there is room for both. There is plenty of substantive met dialogue in these threads, but I don't see the harm in breaking someone's marbles when the opportunity presents itself....life is more tolerable when you can allow for some levity. I don't see anything personal or particularly venomous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Snowman is JB but the opposite spectrum. JB is cold and snowy and Snowman is in the mild snowless camp. That’s why ppl come for snowman just like ppl come for JB it’s the same thing lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why all of that MJO talk? This is an ENSO thread!! My limited understanding is that the location and strength of an MJO and its strength is related to the development of WWB, which can strengthen the El Nino. Or as someone described it a page back, saying MJO talk on an ENSO thread is OT is like saying storm surge discussion on a hurricane thread is OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Maybe I'm missing something, but is this the expected OLR during an El Nino? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 22 hours ago, GaWx said: Maybe from CFS huggers even though the CFS is quite a bit inferior to GEFS/EPS. The CFS remains on its own with a significant MJO amplitude into phases 5 and 6 though not starting for two weeks and actually is slightly weaker vs yesterday's 2+ amp. I'm looking for it to correct further toward weaker amp on future runs: *Edit: keep in mind that CFS goes out further than GEFS/EPS and it's the further out in time and much more unreliable portion that goes well outside the circle. However, neither GEFS nor EPS suggests a strong move into phases 5-6 as of the ends of their runs as of now. There's still so signal for a strong MJO amplitude for 2+ weeks per GEFS/EPS and other non-CFS models. Also, the CFS, the only model with a hint of a possible strong MJO late month, has another slight reduction in its phase 5-6 amp after 2 weeks vs yesterday with amp ~1.75-1.8. Two days ago it was progging low 2s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: In other news you have Joe Bastardi tweeting 10 times a day that the El Nino is turning into a full fledged Modoki and it’s going to be the coldest and snowiest winter ever in east coast history. Always a real plus to have that kiss of death on your side ENSO Region 1+2 has an anomaly > 3°C. The last time that happened was during the 1997-98 super El Niño event. A basinwide or east-based El Niño appears far more likely than a Modoki one. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 51 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: My limited understanding is that the location and strength of an MJO and its strength is related to the development of WWB, which can strengthen the El Nino. Or as someone described it a page back, saying MJO talk on an ENSO thread is OT is like saying storm surge discussion on a hurricane thread is OT. They should make Introduction to sarcasm a prerequisite to posting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: ENSO Region 1+2 has an anomaly > 3°C. The last time that happened was during the 1997-98 super El Niño event. A basinwide or east-based El Niño appears far more likely than a Modoki one. Basin-wide is more likely than both. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Basin-wide is more likely than both. Yes. That's my thinking, too. It is well-supported by the ENSO guidance, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. That's my thinking, too. It is well-supported by the ENSO guidance, too. While I do agree that the SST anomaly configuration is least likely to assume a modoki like configuration, that is not necessarily the case with respect to the velocity potential, which is what is paramount relative to the predominate cold season forcing and resultant weather pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They should make Introduction to sarcasm a prerequisite to posting. And I was to know you were making fun of Snow86 how, exactly? Reading all the posts down to the his talk of Chinese models, I see it now. Anyway, yep, I'm an idiot, I missed the sarcasm. Happened before, will happen again. 25 years ago people were talking how easy it was to miss sarcasm on the internet, no voice inflections or body language. That is for another thread, maybe in the OT subforum, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: And I was to know you were making fun of Snow86 how, exactly? ereading all the posts down to the his talk of Chinese models, I see it now. Anyway, yep, I'm an idiot, I missed the sarcasm. Happened before, will happen again. 25 years ago people were talking how easy it was to miss sarcasm on the internet, no voice inflections or body language. That is for another thread, maybe in the OT subforum, Not at all....easy to do depending on where you picked up the exchange. NBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: While I do agree that the SST anomaly configuration is least likely to assume a modoki like configuration, that is not necessarily the case with respect to the velocity potential, which is what is paramount relative to the predominate cold season forcing and resultant weather pattern. Yes. It's probably premature to have a confident idea about the VP from this forecasting range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. It's probably premature to have a confident idea about the VP from this forecasting range. There is a wide range of possible outcomes with basin-wide, moderate to strong events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 ENSO Region 1+2 has an anomaly > 3°C. The last time that happened was during the 1997-98 super El Niño event. A basinwide or east-based El Niño appears far more likely than a Modoki one.Only in Joe Bastardi delusional wishcasting weenie world does a Modoki look likely. IMO east-based is the most likely outcome with basin-wide the 2nd most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 While the location of the best forcing for next winter is still uncertain, the much warmer WPAC is pulling the forcing much further west than at this point in 1997. So a +3 Nino 1+2 anomaly today may only be effectively similar to a +1 to +1.5 with the WPAC at record warm levels. Nino 1+2 may need to get closer to +4 to +5 with a cooler WPAC to have any influence next winter. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: While the location of the best forcing for next winter is still uncertain, the much warmer WPAC is pulling the forcing much further west than at this point in 1997. So a +3 Nino 1+2 anomaly today may only be effectively similar to a +1 to +1.5 with the WPAC at record warm levels. Correct which is why it's premature to assume next winter will play out like a standard strong east based Nino Our typical ENSO configurations are losing their grip as CC effects get compounded year after year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Correct which is why it's premature to assume next winter will play out like a standard strong east based Nino Our typical ENSO configurations are losing their grip as CC effects get compounded year after year A basinwide VP forcing signal with a westward lean could still produce a warmer winter. But a well timed STJ impulse with some blocking could produce the famous El Niño rogue KU event. Most will take a mild and snowier winter than this past one over mild and snowless. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: While the location of the best forcing for next winter is still uncertain, the much warmer WPAC is pulling the forcing much further west than at this point in 1997. So a +3 Nino 1+2 anomaly today may only be effectively similar to a +1 to +1.5 with the WPAC at record warm levels. Nino 1+2 may need to get closer to +4 to +5 with a cooler WPAC to have any influence next winter. This is where the RONI comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 4 hours ago, bluewave said: A basinwide VP forcing signal with a westward lean could still produce a warmer winter. But a well timed STJ impulse with some blocking could produce the famous El Niño rogue KU event. Most will take a mild and snowier winter than this past one over mild and snowless. I am thinking a cooler version of 2015, given that el nino will be appreciably weaker...forcing should be in a similar locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 I am thinking a cooler version of 2015, given that dl nino will be appreciably weaker...forcing should be in a similar locale.No one knows where the main forcing will be this winter or should be at this point, way, way too early for that. Maybe it will be further west, maybe it will be east. Look again in the fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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