El Nino 2023-2024

[brooklynwx99]

@40/70 Benchmark this canonical enough for you? nothing says EP super Nino like a huge west-based -NAO and arctic outbreak in mid-January lmao

[brooklynwx99]

this month will look nothing like those years on the mean:

[snowman19]

[mention=100]40/70 Benchmark[/mention] this canonical enough for you? nothing says EP super Nino like a huge west-based -NAO and arctic outbreak in mid-January lmao

What is your point? Those are snapshots in time. That same blocking pattern and arctic cold happened in January, 2016….remember the historic blizzard? It also went below zero in NYC during that Nino….remember early February, 2016? That same blocking pattern and arctic cold also happened in February, 1983….remember the Megalopolis blizzard? No, it didn’t happen in ‘98 or ‘73 but again, what is the point you are trying to make??

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What is your point? Those are snapshots in time. That same blocking pattern and arctic cold happened in January, 2016….remember the historic blizzard? It also went below zero in NYC during that Nino….remember early February, 2016? That same blocking pattern and arctic cold also happened in February, 1983….remember the Megalopolis blizzard? No, it didn’t happen in ‘98 or ‘73 but again, what is the point you are trying to make??

We never had a look like that though in 2016 (and not to my knowledge in 1983 either)....even leading into the blizzard, there was a huge GOA low which is quite common in super ninos. We did have the big NAO block, but the PAC on the models looks like a weak Nino or maybe moderate....huge GOA low still absent. Something we haven't been able to get all winter in any sort of sustained capacity. Maybe it shows up in February.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

What is your point? Those are snapshots in time. That same blocking pattern and arctic cold happened in January, 2016….remember the historic blizzard? It also went below zero in NYC during that Nino….remember early February, 2016? That same blocking pattern and arctic cold also happened in February, 1983….remember the Megalopolis blizzard? No, it didn’t happen in ‘98 or ‘73 but again, what is the point you are trying to make??

we have not had a sustained GoA low like those other years have had. of course, this is a coupled event, but it's not really behaving like other super Ninos of the past further into the winter, as myself and others have postulated. it's not acting like those winters, as the Aleutian LP is weak and displaced to the west. it looks more like a weak to moderate event

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

the upcoming stretch (and in the end, January on the mean, in all likelihood) likely ends up more similar to something like Jan 2003 than those winters

[brooklynwx99]

@snowman19 you're probably going to be correct in that this is a super Nino, so kudos for that, but I think you see my point. although it is a super Nino based on ONI, it likely strays from the typical EP super Nino conventions

[Terpeast]

In case no one noticed, the new MEI is 1.1

Almost a full point below ONI

[brooklynwx99]

42 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

In case no one noticed, the new MEI is 1.1

Almost a full point below ONI

no wonder it's acting more like a moderate event right now at 500mb for this month

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Although El Nino winters are usually cooler on average, all the nasty, freakish (low 20s or below) cold snaps that have hit Houston happened during cold ENSOs, and NWS forecasting teens.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the upcoming stretch (and in the end, January on the mean, in all likelihood) likely ends up more similar to something like Jan 2003 than those winters

Quite happy with my January analogs.

January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2)

The only reason I left 2003 off was because of the Pacific, but sensible weather wise, similar storm track, just milder in the aggregate. You can see how prevalent the +PNA was in Jan 2003, though....I didn't expect that and we haven't seen that. Granted the Pacific was also different in 2015 but I still included it because I thought it was a decent sensible weather match throughout the spring/summer and into the fall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@snowman19 you're probably going to be correct in that this is a super Nino, so kudos for that, but I think you see my point. although it is a super Nino based on ONI, it likely strays from the typical EP super Nino conventions

Yea, it will probably finish .1 above my 1.7 to 1.9 ONI range, at 2.0...so I'll give him props on the strength call. But I'm generally happy with where it looks like we are headed relative to my outlook. December was milder than I thought, though. I wish I had weighed 2015 more heavily.

[George001]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@snowman19 you're probably going to be correct in that this is a super Nino, so kudos for that, but I think you see my point. although it is a super Nino based on ONI, it likely strays from the typical EP super Nino conventions

I haven’t looked at the actual anomalies in a while, but now ENSO 1.2 is the weakest region. It’s basinwide, but if anything it has a slight WEST tilt not east. That’s unusual in a nino this strong. It’s interesting how Snowman was right about the strength of the nino, but you and Ray were right about the structure. It’s weird, we have the STJ on roids which is common in stronger nino events, but the look out west so far has been more like a bad Nina pattern (which Bluewave talked about a lot).

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I haven’t looked at the actual anomalies in a while, but now ENSO 1.2 is the weakest region. It’s basinwide, but if anything it has a slight WEST tilt not east. That’s unusual in a nino this strong. It’s interesting how snowman was right about the strength of the nino, but you and Ray were right about the structure. It’s weird, we have the STJ on roids which is common in stronger nino events, but the look out west so far has been more like a bad Nina pattern (which Bluewave talked about a lot).

Yea, I mean .1 out of the range......doesn't make much of a difference. Its just noted for the purpose of verification.

[George001]

To be fair to Snowman, he called for Dec and Jan to be warm and Feb to be more favorable. That seems like a reasonable call right now, similar to 2015-2016 (which is looking like a very good analog). Feb 2016 I remember being a pretty good month, even though the winter was overall mild and BN snow for my area. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

To be fair to Snowman, he called for Dec and Jan to be warm and Feb to be more favorable. That seems like a reasonable call right now, similar to 2015-2016 (which is looking like a very good analog). Feb 2016 I remember being a pretty good month, even though the winter was overall mild and BN snow for my area. 

Colder version of 2015-2016, yes. I always agreed with that. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Colder version of 2015-2016, yes. I always agreed with that. 

Yeah I remember you brought up that this could be a colder version of 2015-2016 a few months ago. Hopefully we get a big storm this year way north of the blizzard that year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah I remember you brought up that this could be a colder version of 2015-2016 a few months ago. Hopefully we get a big storm this year way north of the blizzard that year.

Difference being I don't think this season will be a one-hit wonder that is gone within days, like 2016.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@snowman19 you're probably going to be correct in that this is a super Nino, so kudos for that, but I think you see my point. although it is a super Nino based on ONI, it likely strays from the typical EP super Nino conventions

another strong el nino that needs to be looked at for this kind of pattern is 1957-58

fwiw 2002-03 wasn't that far away from being a strong el nino too (and 2009-10 also.)

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Quite happy with my January analogs.

January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2)

The only reason I left 2003 off was because of the Pacific, but sensible weather wise, similar storm track, just milder in the aggregate. You can see how prevalent the +PNA was in Jan 2003, though....I didn't expect that and we haven't seen that. Granted the Pacific was also different in 2015 but I still included it because I thought it was a decent sensible weather match throughout the spring/summer and into the fall.

1958 and 2010 are great calls by you, might want to add 2003 into the mix too ;-)

1958 was a strong el nino and 2003 and 2010 were close to being strong too (as I stated in my post above).

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Difference being I don't think this season will be a one-hit wonder that is gone within days, like 2016.

I think that's why you weighed 1983 and 2016 slightly less than the other ones?  IMO a slightly colder 2016 would be the reason it wouldn't be a one hit wonder; besides the megablizzard we had several other storms (especially in February-- close to the superbowl if I remember right) that were VERY close to being big hits.  One of them took down a big crane in NYC.  So an enso not as extreme as 2015-16 could result in slightly colder temperatures in the east, which would be the reason it wouldn't be a one hit wonder.

 

[bluewave]

This month will be a collaborative effort between the borderline super El Niño, record MJO 2-7 for such a strong El Niño, -PDO, and wave breaks leading to the big mid-month -NAO. So far the deepest trough in the US is in the Southwest like we have been seeing in recent years. When the month is finished, it generally looks like that trough will remain there in the means. 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We never had a look like that though in 2016 (and not to my knowledge in 1983 either)....even leading into the blizzard, there was a huge GOA low which is quite common in super ninos. We did have the big NAO block, but the PAC on the models looks like a weak Nino or maybe moderate....huge GOA low still absent. Something we haven't been able to get all winter in any sort of sustained capacity. Maybe it shows up in February.

You bring up a real good point, is the “normal” displaced east big GOA vortex just delayed? Hard to believe we have an El Nino this strong and just simply never see a typical strong/super response. Everything about this event has been delayed. (NDJ peak).  An event of this strength dramatically alters the global heat budget and is eventually going to feedback. The laws of physics have to kick in at some point I would think, especially given the huge, unprecedented rise in the MEI over the last month, there has to be an atmospheric response in kind

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-PDO has been chipping away so maybe we see it in February. My intuition says probably not, if it were to be a staple mark El Nino feature it probably would have happened at some point by now.  We are on Neutral heights for the N. Pacific pattern, El Nino to date. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

This month will be a collaborative effort between the borderline super El Niño, record MJO 2-7 for such a strong El Niño, -PDO, and wave breaks leading to the big mid-month -NAO. So far the deepest trough in the US is in the Southwest like we have been seeing in recent years. When the month is finished, it generally looks like that trough will remain there in the means. 

 

 

 

Yup. I never debated the -PDO flavor this year, but rather I was just harping on the idea that we can live with a pedestrian cold phase Pacific given favorable polar fields. We are about to see that play out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You bring up a real good point, is the “normal” displaced east big GOA vortex just delayed? Hard to believe we have an El Nino this strong and just simply never see a typical strong/super response. Everything about this event has been delayed. (NDJ peak).  An event of this strength dramatically alters the global heat budget and is eventually going to feedback. The laws of physics have to kick in at \

Not very hard to believe if you hadn't been dismissing the concept of RONI and MEI for the past 6 months. Many of us have been trying to tell you that this particular El Niño event would not be as prominent a hemispheric driver as the ONI would imply. That said, looks like a nice call by you regarding the ONI.

[so_whats_happening]

I hate to break up this patting of the back but @griteaternailed the temps monthly and ONI. Well deserved applause.

[so_whats_happening]

Quite the change in the subsurface going on. First time we have introduced a -3, it also does not seem like the central to WPAC will cool all too much in the subsurface in the next month so we may see some rather drastic changes in the EPAC coming up over the month. With trades looking at the upper echelon of values I think any further warming is not expected. The westerlies that do develop around 100-120E I think will help in pushing that cold pool eastward later in the month and by February we start tumble rather quickly in 3 and eastern 3.4 with 1+2 maybe going negative for the first time in almost a year. Of course we will have to wait and see how it progresses but just some thoughts of the progression.

[so_whats_happening]

@GaWx It is not perfect but phase 2 was about the 29th- 2nd this was the pattern for the 2nd-8th and here is phase 3 which I would expect a longer period of east or TN valley troughing before we do a quick scoot through to 3-4-5 around mid month to the 3rd week.

[so_whats_happening]

18 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

@GaWx It is not perfect but phase 2 was about the 29th- 2nd this was the pattern for the 2nd-8th and here is phase 3 which I would expect a longer period of east or TN valley troughing before we do a quick scoot through to 3-4-5 around mid month to the 3rd week.

What I think will be nice from this is that we may get a final attack on the SPV coming up from this MJO movement but we are already coming up on the end of the season anyway by the time this rolls through sooo not really sure many would want this to happen if you are hoping for a warm spring.