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Interior NW & NE Burbs 2023


IrishRob17
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Happy New Year!  .27 through the tipper last night along with the fog, which didn’t appear to be as bad here as in other areas. 44/42 currently with sunshine peaking through on the horizon. It was nice to see the annual pick up ice hockey games here in the park this past week, will be a bit before I see that again. 

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Happy New Year!  .27 through the tipper last night along with the fog, which didn’t appear to be as bad here as in other areas. 44/42 currently with sunshine peaking through on the horizon. It was nice to see the annual pick up ice hockey games here in the park this past week, will be a bit before I see that again. 

Happy and blessed New Year. CPK .22 with a low of 50 degrees, 50/42 as of 08:51 AM. As always ….

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Good morning NW-NE suburbs I84-- Elevation-boundary layer temp dependent. I don't want to complicate (interrupt the focus on 1/14/23 storm), so I'll drop this in here and maintainer unless I see wet snow wrapping south across e LI late Friday.  

Unsure if you're noticing gradual increases in modeled snow depth change for the higher terrain of I84 tomorrow.  This tracks back to 12/23-24 via GFS.  While it's not yet a done deal... too many models are showing wet snow up there-here, at elevations. I'm pretty sure it's going to get slippery for a time in high terrain above 1400 feet tomorrow. Especially Catskills, interior CT-MA.

Watch the colder BL air seep southwest from NH. 

What may happen is rain changes to wet snow top-down in a convective embedded within stratiform (possibleBC leaf) as a fairly strong short wave induces low pressure to newly develop s of LI. If the temp is 35 during the rain, I think the snow will cool the air temp to 32.5 or so and at least permit acscums on grass/cars. 

If you consider the HRRR having a tendency to be slightly warm, then the HRRR would be you conservative approach.  But the Canadian Models and increasingly the NAM are slightly adding snowfall for 1/6. 

Presuming this occurs, I think this would be the first wintry event of snow-sleet since 12/23.

This might be interesting for a few of our members.   I'll check back 5-8P and see if this is a reasonable expectation. 

 

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 fwiw: unconfirmed but mPing recently brief IPW- s of KPVD (modeled sounding looked a touch too warm but I don't know?) and pea size hail north of DCA. It's definitely becoming convective in n MD as of 730P.  Should be a nice round of rain coming soon (overnight) for the bulk of the subforum. 

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

 fwiw: unconfirmed but mPing recently brief IPW- s of KPVD (modeled sounding looked a touch too warm but I don't know?) and pea size hail north of DCA. It's definitely becoming convective in n MD as of 730P.  Should be a nice round of rain coming soon (overnight) for the bulk of the subforum. 

Great

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2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

When do y'all abandon the quest for snow and start rooting for futility records? I think I have another couple weeks in me, although I wouldn't be surprised if some were there already.

If I didn’t get ‘crushed’ by that 5” in December (shut up Bx) I’d definitely be posing STFU (Striving Towards FUtility) comments by now.  I got to witness a nice snowy weekend in South Bend back in November too, so I have that going for me. 

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Quick check on what occurred yesterday.  T-spotty 1/2" Poconos and N CT and general 1-3" MA isolated 4. Just too warm from prior record and modeling could not hold 500MB closed low as far south across PA as initially modeled (was opening e-ne from CHI across NYS).  BUST here but fairly close and good taste for MA- a first I think, in 2 weeks there.

Modeling is trying again for early Monday.  Accept whatever we can get.  

Screen Shot 2023-01-07 at 9.22.34 AM.png

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24 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Quick check on what occurred yesterday.  T-spotty 1/2" Poconos and N CT and general 1-3" MA isolated 4. Just too warm from prior record and modeling could not hold 500MB closed low as far south across PA as initially modeled (was opening e-ne from CHI across NYS).  BUST here but fairly close and good taste for MA- a first I think, in 2 weeks there.

Modeling is trying again for early Monday.  Accept whatever we can get.  

Screen Shot 2023-01-07 at 9.22.34 AM.png

Walt how much well in the Poconos? I see they had snow there this morning too.

 

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23 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

If I didn’t get ‘crushed’ by that 5” in December (shut up Bx) I’d definitely be posing STFU (Striving Towards FUtility) comments by now.  I got to witness a nice snowy weekend in South Bend back in November too, so I have that going for me. 

What’s your year to date ?

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