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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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Forecast highs are really coming down for tomorrow across a lot of piedmont areas due to increased cloud cover and slightly decreased heights with SER a little east. Some CAMs keep temps around 70 for the better part of the day. Today looks like a lock to get into the upper 70’s-lower 80’s south but it would be a significant miss tomorrow if temps stay around 70 from all the hype of the previous week.

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21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Forecast highs are really coming down for tomorrow across a lot of piedmont areas due to increased cloud cover and slightly decreased heights with SER a little east. Some CAMs keep temps around 70 for the better part of the day. Today looks like a lock to get into the upper 70’s-lower 80’s south but it would be a significant miss tomorrow if temps stay around 70 from all the hype of the previous week.

Well...if we don't officially reach 80, there's still a statistical chance for snow this year. :lol:

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 Fwiw since it is an operational run at 240, the end of the 12Z Euro has an NAO that is probably bordering on a -2 (March 4th). They don't get that much stronger than that. This would be consistent with the typical timing of blocking setting up after a major SSW as that is at the 2 week point. Thus, this solution isn't as far fetched as it may seem.

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1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Ga will be on here talking 240hr Euro outputs on Memorial Day 

 Maybe :lol: 

 I know my posts related to the stratosphere seem endless. I empathize. But keep in mind that we won't be two weeks past the only major SSW of this winter to date until about 240 hours from now. Only around then will we finally be at the "put up or shut up" time. I always thought it would be mild at least until either the last few days of Feb or first week of March (with regard to the major SSW). And we do have a real live strong -NAO on the model consensus starting within a week. So, I'm anxious to see what happens.

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3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Maybe :lol: 

 I know my posts related to the stratosphere seem endless. I empathize. But keep in mind that we won't be two weeks past the only major SSW of this winter to date until about 240 hours from now. Only around then will we finally be at the "put up or shut up" time. I always thought it would be mild at least until either the last few days of Feb or first week of March. And we do have a real live strong -NAO on the model consensus starting within a week. So, I'm anxious to see what happens.

Looks like the PNA tries to go positive but not until after the first week of March.  Two things you can always count on in March.  The NAO and Clemson basketball tanking...

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That's some eerily good agreement on the 00Z runs late next week. Conceptually, the amped up pattern across the CONUS this week and next should lead to some kind of major severe wx outbreak eventually. Ensembles are also supportive of a bombing low, but I'm a little hesitant to trust anything this far out with the looming -NAO/SSW impacts.

models-2023022300-f210.prateptype_cat-imp.conus.gif.b4f52e9e427b66a40e935a48c07973eb.gif

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On 2/22/2023 at 7:03 PM, GaWx said:

That's not a problem for RDU. They had 83 F on 2/3/1989 followed by 11.1" from two storms later that month along with light accumulations in both March and April.

Well, I got an 82.7 so I'm counting on tons of ip and sn right around the corner, lol.  And sans that, a nice cool to cold March and April will do just fine.  I want to see those boys wearing coats and ear muff at the Masters, with periods of frozen precip. Don't think the Master's has even been snowed out, and that's the kind of heating up cycle anomaly I do so enjoy :)

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4 hours ago, dsaur said:

Well, I got an 82.7 so I'm counting on tons of ip and sn right around the corner, lol.  And sans that, a nice cool to cold March and April will do just fine.  I want to see those boys wearing coats and ear muff at the Masters, with periods of frozen precip. Don't think the Master's has even been snowed out, and that's the kind of heating up cycle anomaly I do so enjoy :)

 Tony/all,

 The prior Euro Weeklies run's March 13-20 had had the strongest cold signal for the E US for any week in March of 2023 yet. And now the brand new one for that week (see image below) has a significantly stronger cold signal than even that one.

 In addition, the subsequent week (March 20-27) on this new run has a much stronger cold signal than the prior run had for that week and about as strong a signal as the prior run's March 13-20.
 
 So, this is an impressively strong cold signal for the E US overall on today's Euro weeklies for 3/13-27! The major SSW and the upcoming new very notable strat weakening are looking to do their thing apparently! This new strat weakening is projected to bring 60N 10 mb winds all the way down to near -17 m/s on Feb 28th! The major SSW, though quite impressive in its own right, brought those winds down "only" down to -13 m/s (on Feb 18th).

 The latest extended GEFS largely agrees. So, the Feb that we've missed out on may actually finally arrive here in March! Tony, sleet could still be in your near future for all anyone knows!

 I'll go even further. No single week in any of Jan, Feb, or March of 2023 on any Weeklies run back to Jan 5th (14 runs excluding today's) has had as strong a cold signal (vs normal of course) for the E US as today's for March 13-20 with today's run for March 20-27 and last week's for March 13-20 about tied for second coldest signal.

3D08151D-9E73-4F3B-B9C3-7E8C760442FC.thumb.png.b770796ba24ce1d7994c824c5f04194c.png

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4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Doesn’t that indicate only 0 to -5? Average highs by March 23 are 66 at RDU. What does that get done?

 The idea is that with a stronger cold signal that there would be a decent chance for at least one Arctic airmass to bring, say, a few days of highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s in much of NC along with sub 0C 850s on the coldest days. If RDU were to have a week averaging 5-7 BN as the WB Euro weekly map shows for midmonth, that would imply the coldest couple of days could average, say, ~15 BN (45 high/25 low kind of thing if there were full sunshine). That would be a cold enough airmass to allow for wintry precip at RDU if there were to be a storm with a favorable track.

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