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December 22 - 25 possible historic wintery/mix/rain event obs


Hurricane Agnes
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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I feel like that map verbatim used to produce....1037hp anchored over Maine, NE flow as coastal takes over, half decent antecedent cold air mass. This hobby may require a move N and W to higher elevations in the coming years for me personally....far N and W.

That probably would work in an ENSO neutral/El Nino scenario in another month or so. :lol:

The front is moving too fast to have had us have enough of a sustained antecedent cold though.  And even with that, this scenario has that MW cutter low bombing out and taking all the thunder out of all the other little lows.

Temp still rising and I'm now up to 42 with dp 42 and 0.38" in the bucket.

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27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I feel like that map verbatim used to produce....1037hp anchored over Maine, NE flow as coastal takes over, half decent antecedent cold air mass. This hobby may require a move N and W to higher elevations in the coming years for me personally....far N and W.

I don't think that map would ever produce....HP moving out - not ideal IMHO

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Mt. Holly tweeted a graphic model prediction of the temp drop to happen tomorrow (e.g., going from 42 to 15 in 12 hours) -

Lots of hazard watches, advisories, warnings up now (including a Wind Chill Advisory & a Wind Advisory for much of the CWA) -

 

Wind Chill Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
258 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-
101>106-230900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WC.Y.0003.221223T2300Z-221224T1500Z/
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown,
Rehoboth Beach, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton,
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,
Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House,
Ocean City, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island,
Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
258 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as
  10 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Delaware,
  northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest and southern
  New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia if
  precautions are not taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A strong cold front will move through
  Friday bringing a very sharp drop in temperatures with strong
  southerly winds shifting to strong westerly. By Friday evening,
  this combination of wind and cold will result in wind chills
  dropping below zero with wind chills as low as 10 below expected
  overnight Friday night into early Saturday.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

Fitzsimmons

 


Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
256 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

DEZ001>003-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-021-
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-231000-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WI.Y.0014.221223T1100Z-221224T0000Z/
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown,
Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Newton, Washington,
Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton,
Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,
Mount Holly, Millville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
256 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Delaware,
  northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest and southern
  New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A brief period of wind gusts near 60 mph is
  possible as a strong cold front races through the area from
  late morning to early afternoon Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Philly's public schools will be all-virtual tomorrow due to the forecast.

Currently light rain and 45 here with dp 45 and 0.42" of rain.

 

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