paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I had a feeling the OP Euro wasn't going to be good - but your PBP was great. Yeah we all knew things were going to be back and forth for a while yet. Let's see how consistent the GFS is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 984 over chicago would give NE and Midwest some interesting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather said: CMC is a frontal passage LOL Just looked. Thats one hella frontal passage. Not sure what to take from the constant cutter look that is a new default for many/most events. Not sure I'm buying what its selling, but the Euro has a similar look, so they shouldnt be discounted even tho we hope n pray they are wrong in many ways. GFS ens vs OP at 174 are not too far off at 500, so that should make one feel that they may be onto something. Maybe Blizz or someone else can post the Euro/Ens for same timestamp to see how wide the goalposts really are at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 toggling back n forth between the majors, out to 132 they are pretty similar. They divulge beyond that w/ the GFS having a deeper trough (hence the better solution) vs the Euro much less diggy/troughy. As i stated above, GFS suite looks similar, so thats a plus. Thats what I'm focusing on in the next couple days...upper air...not surface. I'd think by late weekend we should have a better idea of what we may need....sleds or boats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: toggling back n forth between the majors, out to 132 they are pretty similar. They divulge beyond that w/ the GFS having a deeper trough (hence the better solution) vs the Euro much less diggy/troughy. As i stated above, GFS suite looks similar, so thats a plus. Thats what I'm focusing on in the next couple days...upper air...not surface. I'd think by late weekend we should have a better idea of what we may need....sleds or boats. Sleds or Boats. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 My official tally for yesterday is a trace to perhaps .05" of ice accretion and 1.75" of liquid. On to next week. Let the model wars begin. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 CTP favoring snow Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: My official tally for yesterday is a trace to perhaps .05" of ice accretion and 1.75" of liquid. On to next week. Let the model wars begin. I've been patiently waiting for your final tally. 1.68" was my final total. MJS for the W... I was listening to a met discussion online a little while ago - this guy says there's virtually no chance of an east coast storm next week. Almost a lock any storm will cut. Went on to say that a white Christmas can be salvaged with the arctic front and snow squalls...but he seems convinced that a coastal storm is NOT happening. We shall see. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've been patiently waiting for your final tally. 1.68" was my final total. MJS for the W... I was listening to a met discussion online a little while ago - this guy says there's virtually no chance of an east coast storm next week. Almost a lock any storm will cut. Went on to say that a white Christmas can be salvaged with the arctic front and snow squalls...but he seems convinced that a coastal storm is NOT happening. We shall see. I would love to be a met with that much confidence. They may be right but to act as if the forecast is 100% correct that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 A lot of model runs until Thursday. Probably going to be some wiggle wiggle between now and then. Lets see how consistent the model runs are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, pawatch said: A lot of model runs until Thursday. Probably going to be some wiggle wiggle between now and then. Lets see how consistent the model runs are. Yep get a drink ready HH starts soon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Yep get a drink ready HH starts soon may need it cause if this were easy to figure out (cept for the few that think they already do)...this is the fun and part of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: may need it cause if this were easy to figure out (cept for the few that think they already do)...this is the fun and part of the game. Yep for sure! Cheers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: may need it cause if this were easy to figure out (cept for the few that think they already do)...this is the fun and part of the game. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Bastardi already comparing this to 1993 LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 29 minutes ago, paweather said: Yep for sure! Cheers 28 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Atta boy. Probably making Voyager a tad jealous... Have one for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, paweather said: Bastardi already comparing this to 1993 LOL Wow. Well it sorta looked like that for 1 run. Wish he didnt raise they hypometer so much. I miss the old Joe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Wow. Well it sorta looked like that for 1 run. Wish he didnt raise they hypometer so much. I miss the old Joe. Yeah I miss the old Joe as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, paweather said: Bastardi already comparing this to 1993 LOL Stuff like that (the twitter mets) was what I was complaining about a couple weeks ago. They raise expectation to frequently unsustainable levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've been patiently waiting for your final tally. 1.68" was my final total. MJS for the W... I was listening to a met discussion online a little while ago - this guy says there's virtually no chance of an east coast storm next week. Almost a lock any storm will cut. Went on to say that a white Christmas can be salvaged with the arctic front and snow squalls...but he seems convinced that a coastal storm is NOT happening. We shall see. Did your guy suggest why he thinks its a no go? Would be great to here why peeps think not..especially if they are correct. PNA heading + with NAO/AO still neg suggests ridging out west and trough in the east(much like todays GFS shows). Mind you im not banking on the GFS to be correct, but the presentation seems logical and "fits" in my mind. Of course that doesnt mean a storm cant cut, but thats the 10 million dollar question that someone needs to help us understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Loop back through the last 4 on hour runs of both GFS and Euro Ops, and you'll see the GFS being notably more consistent. Then seeing the GEPS and GEFS looking similar up top, makes me think it has a clue to what may happen. Euro at 168 on 500mb panels is a few hundred miles W of EPS at same time stamp. That would argue for a potentially more easterly SLP placement and potentially notably different solution. I reiterate, I share what Im seeing to add substance to where my head is....and how it gets there. NOT because I think I'm correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The most important model run has started 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, paweather said: The most important model run has started If Blizz does not show, you may need to PBP unless someone else gets it. LOL. We do need to get with Blizz's company and make them understand what winter is and what it means to this group and Blizz being around. MA LR thread rippling JB a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, paweather said: The most important model run has started ICON extrapolated is a hit Go ahead.....hit ME 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Up to 90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Wow. Well it sorta looked like that for 1 run. Wish he didnt raise they hypometer so much. I miss the old Joe.So does Joe. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Up to 90 subtle differences but nothing much changed....so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Keep going PA....Its your snow train. Make us happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Keep going PA....Its your snow train. Make us happy. I’m soon headed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I'll help while hes pourin cocktail #....... 114 is very similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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