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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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4 hours ago, George001 said:

Ah that’s too bad, but the increased water vapor could still lead to an increase in low strength. The question will be if that will be enough to offset the warming or not.

Excess warming leads to decreased polar-equator temp gradient, which might mean that zonal flow is more disruptable (as less of a temp gradient means jet is weaker). Pinging mets for verification.

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2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Excess warming leads to decreased polar-equator temp gradient, which might mean that zonal flow is more disruptable (as less of a temp gradient means jet is weaker). Pinging mets for verification.

From what I’ve seen, it would act as a green house gas and warm the planet. 

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

From what I’ve seen, it would act as a green house gas and warm the planet. 

Yeah, my hypothesis was that increased warming leads to decreased polar-equator twmp gradient since GW tends to disproportionally warm the north pole, causing the increased disruptability (more variable 500 mb heights for ex.). I wasn't disputing the warming aspect.

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1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

Excess warming leads to decreased polar-equator temp gradient, which might mean that zonal flow is more disruptable (as less of a temp gradient means jet is weaker). Pinging mets for verification.

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

From what I’ve seen, it would act as a green house gas and warm the planet. 

 

49 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Yeah, my hypothesis was that increased warming leads to decreased polar-equator twmp gradient since GW tends to disproportionally warm the north pole, causing the increased disruptability (more variable 500 mb heights for ex.). I wasn't disputing the warming aspect.

Excess stratospheric water vapor warms the surface through the normal greenhouse effect, but it cools the stratosphere itself through that IR emission. You’re already seeing this in the southern hemisphere with a very cold stratosphere. That’s why, from a weather weenie POV it could be bad for snow chances as it would tend to reinforce a cold stable strat wintertime   PV.

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS shows what miracles can come from a huge block.

Retrogrades this sucker right into a New England rainer that blue bombs the mid-Atlantic.  That ocean storm hits a brick wall and backs it right up.

 

IMG_1725.MOV 876.98 kB · 12 downloads  

 

I would absolutely go unhinged.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ahh January 2003. 90/128 interchange. Where you went from heaven to hell in a few miles. Thank the good lord Feb and Mar came through that year.

I remember I was commuting to Devens back in Jan 2003, as my reserve unit was training to deploy after being mobilzed. Wilmington was pretty much on the right side of things, with about a foot of concrete, but over in Ayer, it was about 18" of powder.

I drove down to NC and we picked up a guy in PVD on the way down and it was just a barren wasteland hahaha.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember I was commuting to Devens back in Jan 2003, as my reserve unit was training to deploy after being mobilzed. Wilmington was pretty much on the right side of things, with about a foot of concrete, but over in Ayer, it was about 18" of powder.

I drove down to NC and we picked up a guy in PVD on the way down and it was just a barren wasteland hahaha.

It really was remarkable how quickly it diminished SE of that junction. When I was in Lowell, there was about 2’ otg. About half inch to inch of icy crud at home. I guess enough for Steve to go tobogganing though. :lol: 

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23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models are keen on the change beginning Dec 7/8 but snow chances won't be immediate. 

Could we avoid the Grinch storm this year? Signs point to yes

… It’s an evolving situation…

I consider that Lakes cutter around the 7th as a boundary storm along the mode change / mainly -EPO driven … a transit that last week looked like a positive +PNAP triggered passage.  

But the PNAP aspect’s been delayed possibly indefinitely I’m not sure… I mean whether we get a western North American Ridge and all that jazz thereafter is still under debate to me but yeah it’s been showing up in some of the guidance.  

It’s nice to finally see the operational guidance versions of the Euro and the American coming around to picking up the exertion of the negative NAO. Man it’s unnerving tho … The NAO history is a catalogue of disappointments … when it looked clad, but then never really developed and/or ended up doing some variation that didn’t parlay well.  And so here we are trying to depend on one that’s still modeled beyond day 7 …particularly towards mid month that’ll stroke winter enthusiasts some 4 weeks ahead of climo no less. 

There is a little solace in the fact that when you step back and look at it from orbit the hemisphere appears that it has no choice but to end up in a negative NAO. I’m just hoping that model magnification will actually be our ally in this case and that what verifies is a more moderate negative NAO blocking …such that doesn’t become overbearing

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

… It’s an evolving situation…

I consider that Lakes cutter around the 7th as a boundary storm along the mode change / mainly -EPO driven … a transit that last week looked like a positive +PNAP triggered passage.  

But the PNAP aspect’s been delayed possibly indefinitely I’m not sure… I mean whether we get a western North American Ridge and all that jazz thereafter is still under debate to me but yeah it’s been showing up in some of the guidance.  

It’s nice to finally see the operational guidance versions of the Euro and the American coming around to picking up the exertion of the negative NAO. Man it’s unnerving tho … The NAO history is a catalogue of disappointments … when it looked clad, but then never really developed and/or ended up doing some variation that didn’t parlay well.  And so here we are trying to depend on one that still modeled beyond day 7 …particularly towards mid month that’ll stroke winter enthusiasts some 4 weeks ahead of climo no less. 

There is a little solace in the fact that when you step back and look at it from orbit the hemisphere appears that it has no choice but to end up in a negative NAO. I’m just hoping that model magnification will actually be our ally in this case and that what actually verifies is a more moderate negative NAO blocking …such that doesn’t become overbearing

I'm not as worried about that given the state of the Pacific..its hard to screw up an RNA/neg NAO regime from the perspective of a SNE winter enthusiast.

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