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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2022 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Patience is a virtue.....boys, we may be waiting a while again this year. Some folks are saying the pattern will rollover early/mid dec. Maybe it will, maybe not. I prefer to look at the ens means at range and not really much furher than that. Might get bored in this pattern and end up lookong at the weeklies/monthlies for some sense of hope. For now, ens means unanimous in locking in that pig ridge in the central PAC and repeatedly feeding/reloading the Aleutian ridge. Again, we want a trof there preferably to pump heights out west (+PNA). The NAO is stout but probably doesnt help centered SE of Greenland. 

 

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I am really liking the look of where the models are trending (not quite there yet) I really suspect models will begin to better see more and more high latitude blocking and/or amplification of those western ridges in the next 2 to 4 week time frames. This should then result in another cold weather outbreak across the east....but this time we should indeed see snow threats increasing as we move later into the first week of December. Buckle up....

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6 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

I am really liking the look of where the models are trending (not quite there yet) I really suspect models will begin to better see more and more high latitude blocking and/or amplification of those western ridges in the next 2 to 4 week time frames. This should then result in another cold weather outbreak across the east....but this time we should indeed see snow threats increasing as we move later into the first week of December. Buckle up....

I can see blockiness continuing to build at HL as we enter first week of December. Most ens support this. Some of the signals we are seeing wrt to big ridge in the PAC is maybe trying to nose into the EPO region way out towards the end of the ens means. I can see it getting BN cold in response to that EPO ridge. With the TPV trying to anchor near Hudson Bay, this flow has the look of a cold, fast, progressive Northern jet. Think clippers. Does anyone here remember those? Been so long. Im skeptical and I can see it getting BN cold/dry for a bit early Dec. Out beyond the end of the ens means? Your guess is as good as mine. And as we know, things can turn on a dime in weather. Just feel this reload or whatever you want to call it may take a bit longer than we want. But hey, it is still pre-Thanksgiving sooooo we got a long way to go. 

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6z GFS op is a great example of the fast flow around the TPV near Hudson Bay and the EPO ridging overwhelming the pattern/flow with BN cold centered of the NE/Mid Atl.. Could be some teases happening after Dec 3ish, but that look, while you may hear yhe term "loaded" being used, is that of a somewhat classic Nina...not a whole lot of amplification happening with the mean NAO ridging being East/Southeast of Greenland. SER is flat....we would actually benefit with some flexing with the loojs up top. We've been down this road often that past few years and we end up pulling our hair out because these fast moving sw's get sheared out under the TPV flow and confluence. Again, not debbing, just using the pattern presented, historic Nina base state, recent years' analogs, and past experience. Ofc every pattern presents differently and has variable nuances. The point here is remain optimistic, and be patient...we're going to get there but 9 times out of 10 we kick the can just a little farther out. Maybe this can be the 1 where we surprise and hit early? 

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Big differences of around 10 degrees in low temperatures across the County this morning. Lower elevation spots below 500ft ASL were well down into the 20's while some higher spots were no lower than the mid-30's. Beautiful weather on tap both today and tomorrow with slightly above normal high temps of just past 50 degrees. Some rain is possible on Friday but not a wash out. A better chance of rain is Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The record high for today is 73 degrees set back in 1931. The record low was the 11 degrees set in 1989. Daily rain record is the 1.30" from 1961. Our daily snow record was the 2.9" that fell today back in 1989.
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33 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

What a difference ~60 miles makes. We bottomed out at 25.5°F this morning.

All about radiational cooling - elevation made a big difference over just 2 miles around here. I could go no lower than 32.1 while 2 miles away but 300 feet lower at Marsh Creek hit 23.1

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Happy Thanksgiving to all of you!
After a frosty start, especially in the lower elevation locales this morning... It looks like a great weather day on the menu for today with high temps a little above normal in the mid-50's across the county. It looks like some rain moves in by early tomorrow morning but should be over by 10am. Sun returns by afternoon. More rain on the way for Sunday into Sunday night. After that it looks dry till mid-week with temps averaging a bit below normal on Tuesday.
The record high temperature for today is 69 degrees set back in 1979. Our record low is just 10 degrees in 1989. Record rain is the 2.08" that fell in 1950. The record snow is the 5.3" that fell today way back in 1898. That began what would be the all-time snowiest winter season in Chester County history. By the end of that upcoming winter 1898-99 we would see 95.0" of snow. Our 2nd snowiest winter occurred in 2009-10 when we recorded 86.7" of snow.
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We picked up a little light rain with 0.06" in the bucket this morning. We should see skies start to clear with the winds getting a bit gusty out of the WNW. Temps should peak around 50 degrees by early afternoon and that start to slowly fall. Temps tonight should fall to just above freezing except maybe 32 degrees in some of the higher spots in Western Chester County. Beautiful day tomorrow with temps struggling to escape the 40's (normal high for tomorrow is 50 degrees). Rain should start again by late Sunday morning and last into the evening. We could pick up up to 3/4" of rain. The rest of the last week of November and into December looks to see temps right around normal with more rain chances on Wednesday.
The record high for today is 74 degrees back in 1979. The record low is 12 degrees set in 1938. Record rainfall was the 2.11" from 1964. Our record daily snowfall was the 6.0" that fell today also back in 1938.
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So much for the early start to winter this year. First half of December looking mostly wet and mild. Signs that things may change shortly there after but the cans been getting kicked further down the line since early week. Have to start seeing it progress in time. Crazy pac jet is playing havoc on the models, they can’t even nail 5 days out let alone 10-15 days right now… will just have to sit and wait but IMO accumulating snow before Christmas looks like a long shot.

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46 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

So much for the early start to winter this year. First half of December looking mostly wet and mild. Signs that things may change shortly there after but the cans been getting kicked further down the line since early week. Have to start seeing it progress in time. Crazy pac jet is playing havoc on the models, they can’t even nail 5 days out let alone 10-15 days right now… will just have to sit and wait but IMO accumulating snow before Christmas looks like a long shot.

Same thing almost annualy during a Nina. Ens means rush a good pattern and we kick it til after Christmas. No reason this year should be different. My catch phrase this season so far is "be patient". 

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On 11/15/2022 at 8:33 PM, Albedoman said:

On to my next measurable snow event. Thanksgiving weekend is still in the picture for at least a  2-4 inch snow event

Specific forecasting 12 days out almost never works. Doing this in a Nina to boot, bound to fail. All we can do is take general stabs at the pattern via the means, but even those have proven to be somewhat dartboard throws wrt LR. 

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Dec 7-9 still trying to spit out something. This weekend just too warm, But my prediction was made on this weekend storm was made 11 days ago. I agree the 15 day GFS forecast are wishful thinking. 10 days on the Euro sniffs out the early potential but the NAM/RGEM  3-5 day short range  is usually the best model to rely on for somewhat accurate snow events. Total snowfall accumulation for the storm event- I usually rely on the total snowfall accumulation change in 24 hours only. The clown map is fun to look at if you are wishing for a KU storm every time a snow event happens. Lets face we all like a good continuous 24-48 hour snowfall with thundersnow, high wind advisories and half dollar size flakes.:santa::snowing:

 

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A nice day today to get out there a get those Christmas decorations up. Sunny skies with temps slightly above normal in the low 50's. Rain tomorrow by late morning and lasting till Sunday evening. Chillier Monday and Tuesday with more rain chances on Wednesday before a turn to below normal temps by Thursday.
The record high for today is 70 degrees set way back in 1896. The record low is also the coldest reading for the month of November at just 5 above zero set today back in 1938. The record rain is 1.52" from 1944 and our record daily snow occurred just 8 years ago with the 5.3" of snow that fell in 2014.
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11 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Leaves are coming out of the woodwork, lol.

Yes, my fault for doing some raking early Thanksgiving morning. Oh well…

Just finished mowing the front one final time. The grass really took off a few weeks ago with that warm spell. Now it’s nice and short so even if all we manage this year is car toppers, all the little grass blades will be covered and I can tell myself it was a HECS. :snowing:

51F/DP 33F

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Ens means are starting to whet my appetite after Dec 6ish. Lots of HL blocking, a nosing EPO ridge, split flow off the West Coast, TPV where we want to see it. Trying to keep myself in check. Might not have to be patient *too* long....matter of time guys. NCEP progs have the NAO tanking. Probably will start seeing digital chances appearing soon on guidance for after the 6th. 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_54.png

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Fwiw, if you believe the GEFS in a general macroscale pattern progression, you can see a negative 500 anomaly wobbling itself around and getting near the Aleutians towards the end of the LR while the NAO ridge is pretty much anchored in place. As Paul (Chescowx) would say....buckle up.

Just to add, other ens are eerily similar wrt to HL pattern but I feel the GEFS family has had better verification at LR during Ninas. No numbers to prove it, just going off past experience.

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ens means are starting to whet my appetite after Dec 6ish. Lots of HL blocking, a nosing EPO ridge, split flow off the West Coast, TPV where we want to see it. Trying to keep myself in check. Might not have to be patient *too* long....matter of time guys. NCEP progs have the NAO tanking. Probably will start seeing digital chances appearing soon on guidance for after the 6th. 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_54.png

I love seeing digital chances sometimes just as much as the real thing because we can see what can happen and then what probably will not happen.  However, I love how our outlook is for after the first week of December. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fwiw, if you believe the GEFS in a general macroscale pattern progression, you can see a negative 500 anomaly wobbling itself around and getting near the Aleutians towards the end of the LR while the NAO ridge is pretty much anchored in place. As Paul (Chescowx) would say....buckle up.

Just to add, other ens are eerily similar wrt to HL pattern but I feel the GEFS family has had better verification at LR during Ninas. No numbers to prove it, just going off past experience.

I am quite sure that As Paul (Chescowx) has the past data that would support this too for the fall line and beyond!  I would say.... buckle up tool.

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Thanksgiving temps were in the rare mild range as many years it has been bundle-up cold and even with flakes flying.  But my high Thursday was 55.

Ended up reaching 57 yesterday with 0.02" of rain, and since the sun came out in the afternoon, I was able to get some outdoor window wreaths up, albeit with some windy conditions to deal with.

And after a 39 low this morning, it looks like 55 will be my high for today.  It's currently 52 and clear at sunset (with a crescent moon also setting) and with dp 33.

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18 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I am quite sure that As Paul (Chescowx) has the past data that would support this too for the fall line and beyond!  I would say.... buckle up tool.

Going to play the patience game. Some AN temp stuff coming before we start seeing the SER knocked down by successive waves plowing across as the TPV sets up in S Central Canada and the pig NAO ridge takes shape. BN likely after Dec 6th-ish but more than likely our legit shots at frozen accumulating precip will begin several days following the cold air getting established. Middle third of the month (Dec 10-20) is where the pattern progression would take us for a legit winter weather threat. 

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Rain looks to overspread the county from SW to NE over the next couple of hours. Rain should fall much of the day before ending this evening. The active weather pattern looks to continue this week with more rain chances on Wednesday and again next Saturday. Temperature wise we will average above normal today and Wednesday but below normal all of the rest of the days this week.
The record high for today is 73 degrees from 1896. Our record low is 13 degrees from 1932. The daily rain record is 1.52" from 1944. The snow record is the 4.5" of wet snow that fell 10 years ago today back in 2012.
image.png.f82886c7f61176764b5db80f1a1c75ef.png
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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Going to play the patience game. Some AN temp stuff coming before we start seeing the SER knocked down by successive waves plowing across as the TPV sets up in S Central Canada and the pig NAO ridge takes shape. BN likely after Dec 6th-ish but more than likely our legit shots at frozen accumulating precip will begin several days following the cold air getting established. Middle third of the month (Dec 10-20) is where the pattern progression would take us for a legit winter weather threat. 

I think the next 2-3 weeks will tell us a lot about the upcoming winter. Will the winter-type pattern being advertised move up in time and occur, or will this be another season of chasing unicorns in the LR? Your guess is as good as mine.

Rain has started. Maybe some thunder in parts of DE and SNJ? Too early for the Wiggum rule??

46F

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