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GL/MW/OV Jan 2011 Discussion

TheWeatherPimp

By TheWeatherPimp,
in Central/Western States

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Madmaxweather

Madmaxweather

Posted
Posted

We'll see where this pattern goes but there is suppose to be reversal in the pattern and the time is now. How long does it last? There is speculation that blocking could return sooner then expected and put us back into a cold pattern.

In a nutshell it looks like between the 30th-1st we are above normal. Then the first week of the New Year we are near normal. What does week two have in store? There are indications of a storm between the 6th-10th. We'll see what happens but I think were in a holding pattern of whats going to happen.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

This is how winter was in Michigan in the mid 90's...Cold, Dry, Dark and little Snow unless you lived in LES areas.

Heck may as well include that whole decade with the exception of 92-93, 96-97 and 98-99. Granted 95-96 was not as bad out this way which probably was thanks to the lake.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

latest ensembles are suggesting a return of severe blocking :lol:

:axe:

congrats Chicago Storm and Buckeyyyyyyyyyyyee!!!:bike:

See Don S. thread about severe blocking especially during a nina. Thus why i am nearly certain we wont see a return to the kind of blocking had recently/this month.

Here is all NAO info going back to the 1860s. This IS reliable because it was measured on land/Greenland. Thus it covers the last deep solar min as well. Need to know which was Nina ask away. Sure as said we may see more -NAO Blocking ( almost a given ) but it should not be nearly as severe as it was.

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/indices.data.html#naostatseas

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

See Don S. thread about severe blocking especially during a nina. Thus why i am nearly certain we wont see a return to the kind of blocking had recently/this month.

Here is all NAO info going back to the 1860s. This IS reliable because it was measured on land/Greenland. Thus it covers the last deep solar min as well. Need to know which was Nina ask away. Sure as said we may see more -NAO Blocking ( almost a given ) but it should not be nearly as severe as it was.

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/indices.data.html#naostatseas

Severe blocking doesn't appear to be imminent (a couple ensemble members notwithstanding) but I'm pretty sure this isn't a torch pattern coming up after New Years. Not particularly cold and not particularly warm. I think we'll mostly be cold enough for snow chances but not much is showing up right now.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

Severe blocking doesn't appear to be imminent (a couple ensemble members notwithstanding) but I'm pretty sure this isn't a torch pattern coming up after New Years. Not particularly cold and not particularly warm. I think we'll mostly be cold enough for snow chances but not much is showing up right now.

Yeah. Right now it looks more on the quiet side then anything. Ofcourse anything beyond day 7 on the models i take with a grain of salt especially with a pattern like this and being that it is a Nina. Guess we will see.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

Hey, another miss to the SW. Awesome!

You know it's getting bad when you're envious of T-2" events.

Did you see the latest discussion from the OSPC?

TEMPERATURES IN SNOW-STARVED AREAS INCLUDING TORONTO..HALTON-PEEL..HAMILTON AND 
NIAGARA DO LOOK REASONABLE AS ANY SNOW LEFT ON GROUND SHOULD BE TOAST BY NEW YEARS DAY.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

You seem so down lately. LR GFS is a joke. What it shows now (good or bad) means nothing. It will snow, you will probably end up with a good winter. Winter is 1 week old. Cheer up! :snowman:

Except it's not just the GFS. It's the GFS, the GFS ensembles, CPC, the latest EURO run, the GGEM, HM, and Don Sutherland all support the reemergence of blocking after the NYE storm departs. The same blocking that's single handedly screwed me 6 ways from Sunday the last year and a half. So I don't think my pessimism is unfounded.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Did you see the latest discussion from the OSPC?

TEMPERATURES IN SNOW-STARVED AREAS INCLUDING TORONTO..HALTON-PEEL..HAMILTON AND 
NIAGARA DO LOOK REASONABLE AS ANY SNOW LEFT ON GROUND SHOULD BE TOAST BY NEW YEARS DAY.

Hadn't seen that. Could you give me a link?

I was dead certain the record breaking snow drought last year was a once in a lifetime occurrence. Even David Phillips back in November said something along the lines of "although this winter may not be a snowy as some are forecasting, you can forget about a repeat of last year. That was a once in a lifetime event".

Unfortunately for me, it's Groundhog Day and I'm Bill Murray.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Except it's not just the GFS. It's the GFS, the GFS ensembles, CPC, the latest EURO run, the GGEM, HM, and Don Sutherland all support the reemergence of blocking after the NYE storm departs. The same blocking that's single handedly screwed me 6 ways from Sunday the last year and a half. So I don't think my pessimism is unfounded.

Haha, I like how Don S has become a global ensemble on his own. I do enjoy his insightful longe range posts.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

Hadn't seen that. Could you give me a link?

I was dead certain the record breaking snow drought last year was a once in a lifetime occurrence. Even David Phillips back in November said something along the lines of "although this winter may not be a snowy as some are forecasting, you can forget about a repeat of last year. That was a once in a lifetime event".

Unfortunately for me, it's Groundhog Day and I'm Bill Murray.

It's just Kuhn's thoughts from WFO Downsview, he sends out emails every once in a while...

>OSPC discussion - http://www.weatherserver.net/html/subscribe.htm

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

Awesome. Thanks for that. It's probably the closest we'll ever get to having our own AFDs. It's pitiful how far behind in the stone ages EC is compared to the NWS.

Here's the entire latest entry by him... and I agree... there isn't even separate pages for info and discussions from each WFO. It's all done behind the scene out of reach from the public... 

1. TODAY..MAIN ISSUES ARE TIMING THE CLEARING AND/OR BREAKUP OF THE 
BOUNDARY LAYER STRATUS OVER SRN/ERN/NERN ONTARIO. SCRIBE SEEMS TO BE 
ON THE FAST SIDE FOR CLEARING THIS LOW CLOUD ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING 
THAT THE OUTGOING IR FLUX GUIDANCE PLUS THE NAM/GFS AND OFF 
LAKE/UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK LATE DECEMBER SUNSHINE ALL SUGGEST IT 
WILL TAKE LONGER FOR LOW CLOUD STUCK UNDER THE INVERSION TO GET 
FLUSHED OUT. OVER NWRN ONTARIO A QUIET DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD 
COVER IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.

2. TONIGHT..SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM SRN 
PLAINS STATES BRINGS IN THICKENING CLOUDS TO WRN HALF OF SRN ONTARIO 
AND WITH NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES AND THIN SKIN OF COLD AIR STILL 
STUCK AT SURFACE..CHANCE POPS FOR FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOK GOOD 
OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT KITCHENER SW TO WINDSOR AND UP OVER SKI COUNTRY 
AROUND GEORGIAN BAY. HAVE UPDATED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR 
WINDSOR AND SARNIA AREAS WHERE THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS THE 
GREATEST (60 PERCENT CHANCE). OVER NWRN ONTARIO..SNOW AHEAD OF THE 
DEVELOPING SRN PLAINS STATES LOW MOVES IN WITH 2-4 CM POSSIBLE 
ESPECIALLY FORT FRANCES TO DRYDEN TO SIOUX LOOKOUT BY MORNING.

3. THURSDAY..SNOW AREA EXPANDS ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO WITH A GENERAL 
10-15 CM SNOW EVENT EXPECTED BY EVENING. IT APPEARS THE RAIN-SNOW 
LINE WILL EXTEND FROM JUST W OF THUNDER BAY TO NEAR GERALDTON..WITH 
PRIMARILY RAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS 
CLOSELY FOR IF THE LOW MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TO OVER CENTRAL 
LAKE SUPERIOR..THUNDER BAY WILL BE COLDER AND MAY RECEIVE MORE SNOW. 
HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MAY HAVE TO ISSUE SNOWFALL 
WARNINGS FOR NWRN ONTARIO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. 

4. IN THE LONGER RANGE..LOW MOVES NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NERN 
ONTARIO ALONG THE LINE OF A SHARPENING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS WILL 
DIVIDE THE PROVINCE WITH A SIGNIFICANT THAW ALONG WITH RAIN EXPECTED 
FOR MUCH OF NERN/ERN/SRN ONTARIO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY..AND MUCH 
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MORE SNOW NWRN AND FAR NRN ONTARIO AS 
ANOTHER LOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS STATES MOVES NE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR 
INTO NERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. SCRIBE APPEARS TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE 
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR SRN/ERN/NERN ONTAIRO 
AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THEM DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES PARTICULARLY 
NERN AND ERN ONTARIO IN COORDINATION WITH QUEBEC STORM PREDICTION 
CENTRE THANKS MAINLY TO DECENT SNOW PACK IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES IN 
SNOW-STARVED AREAS INCLUDING TORONTO..HALTON-PEEL..HAMILTON AND 
NIAGARA DO LOOK REASONABLE AS ANY SNOW LEFT ON GROUND SHOULD BE 
TOAST BY NEW YEARS DAY. THE SHARP ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY 
BRING THE THAW TO AN END ON NEW YEARS DAY THOUGH..WITH TEMPERATURES  
RETURNING TO BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL 
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FREEZE ISSUES NEW YEARS DAY IN THE 
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. 

5. A BELATED MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL. HAVE A GREAT DAY..EH?

END/KANKUHNY/OSPC

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Except it's not just the GFS. It's the GFS, the GFS ensembles, CPC, the latest EURO run, the GGEM, HM, and Don Sutherland all support the reemergence of blocking after the NYE storm departs. The same blocking that's single handedly screwed me 6 ways from Sunday the last year and a half. So I don't think my pessimism is unfounded.

If blocking returns, it very likely wont be as strong. A weaker, differently placed block can actually be a very GOOD thing. Much of the area from Cleveland through Toronto has been synoptically screwed all winter, but it WILL change!

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

If blocking returns, it very likely wont be as strong. A weaker, differently placed block can actually be a very GOOD thing. Much of the area from Cleveland through Toronto has been synoptically screwed all winter, but it WILL change!

I just wish I felt your optimism. It's funny, because I'm normally a very optimistic person.

Weather, however, is sometimes a different animal to me. Maybe it's because I follow it so closely and get let down a lot. Example: Seeing models showing 6"+ for days on end in MBY and ending up with 2" Instead of enjoying the 2, I'm disappointed for not getting the 6.

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