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Winter 2022-23


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3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

That's a pretty good assessment. I wonder if we are running into the potential energy of an El Nino next year. 

Same page....been saying the Pacific is going to look better this winter than a lot of people think. The surface of the tropical Pacific belies what is going on right now in the atmosphere.

I think the eruption is also playing a role with respect to the dead tropics if you read some the research that raindance referenced.

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On 9/3/2022 at 6:59 AM, leesburg 04 said:

I was born in Takoma Park MD in 1966 lived there until 1988 and have lived in northern Virginia since 91...I honestly don't need anyone to tell me how little snow we get in our area I've seen great years good years ok years not good years and full on shitty years. My expectations every year are whatever we get we get with the bar set low and the excitement that every once in awhile we exceed that bar. I'm of the opinion that those who like to play board psychiatrist and continously tell us how miserable our winters only do it to talk themselves off the ledge...maybe I'm wrong but it is my opinion. I definitely believe that we can have a good sense of what the coming winter will be like and I think deep down we all know if it happens the way it's looking then we will bitch about it but if we fluke we will rejoice rinse and repeat. Its how this board has always been and probably always will be. Some will leave many will stay it's just how it is.

Ok rant over...time to get ready to mow the dirt. Have a great day all...even you PSU :)

signed

Jackass

I absolutely don’t think snowfall can be predicted months in advance. Overall pattern, somewhat, but not snow. 
 

 

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11 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I think we have a pretty good chance for -PNA Jan and Dec, because we are running pretty perfectly opposite of last year. Last we actually didn't have a good Pacific. I think we have more potential energy for snow this Winter, but the N. Hemisphere pattern looks like it could be worse.?

 

9 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Pretty good signal for +NAO Dec, maybe with -EPO or+PNA

Opposite of last winter would be a neg NAO December....we had the one good shot of neg NAO in Dec, but the month averaged slightly positive. 

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46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How can ya say that when weather has predictable tendencies? If something usually doesn't work here, guess what? It won't work most of the time.

How is simply believing something that almost never works living in reality? (Let me guess, you focus on blips like 1996/96.) This ain't like other things in life...it's our weather. Your optimism doesn't seem to have a bit to do with what the prospects actually are. If there were anything at all, be it blocking or better enso or something anomalous...I could get it. But there's literally zilch at the moment, and yet you sit up here acting like there's a ton to be excited about. Makes no sense. How are you different from JB hyping winter evert year?

I think there's a difference between being the eternal optimist and actually discussing the odds for the winter based on what's actually happening.

You don’t “discuss” anything. Everything you post is with an all out whine fest, or is a bunch of probing questions with an undertone of guess what … more whining. What are you gonna do when the next Nino is wall to wall warmth? It has happened before. 
 

Go back and read last years prognostications for winter. It wasn’t the disaster that was predicted. Day to day sensible weather cannot be predicted months in advance. Good or bad. Sooner or later you’ll learn this. 

For me, I’m done with you. 
 

And for the record, many of us in this region have had several decent to good winters over the past 6 years. 18-19, 20-21 were good, last year was decent. We live at 39° latitude. This isn’t New England. It’s never been a place where you can expect most winters to be good. And you probably live close to sea level lol. You’re gonna be unhappy, a lot. 
 

Whatever, rock on. Adios

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You don’t “discuss” anything. Everything you post is with an all out whine fest, or is a bunch of probing questions with an undertone of guess what … more whining. What are you gonna do when the next Nino is wall to wall warmth? It has happened before. 
 

Go back and read last years prognostications for winter. It wasn’t the disaster that was predicted. Day to day sensible weather cannot be predicted months in advance. Good or bad. Sooner or later you’ll learn this. 

For me, I’m done with you. 
 

And for the record, many of us in this region have had several decent to good winters over the past 6 years. 18-19, 20-21 were good, last year was decent. We live at 39° latitude. This isn’t New England. It’s never been a place where you can expect most winters to be good. And you probably live close to sea level lol. You’re gonna be unhappy, a lot. 
 

Whatever, rock on. Adios

Listen man I'm sorry--I was way too harsh with my last post. That wasn't fair to come after ya like that--that was completely wrong. Be optimistic, it's a good thing. I respect that and I respect what ya know and I respect you--you're a good 20-25 years older and I oughta be a little more respectful of your insight/wisdom. Ya helped me out with the H5 map last winter and I appreciated that.

I'm naturally a little more cynical by nature to a fault...But if ya need to put me on ignore, so be it. I'm kinda done with me too, tbh.

I won't be posting much this winter anyway unless it surprises (and even then just straight questions about...whatever is happening on models. I know the deal here now. I'm kinda complained out even if the suck is still gonna be crappy--it happens). 7 years has taught me a lot, and after all my venting...I'm kinda okay with things now--even if in the moment whatever fails we may get will still be disappointing. It kinda is what it is...Besides, all the fails I've seen have shown me how hard it is. Just be happy with what you receive...one of these days I'll learn that. I'll try to be better.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new EPS seasonal for December is showing why you need a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) to get cold into the pattern. At face value, it’s showing a flat Aleutian high and it allows PAC air to flood the pattern: 

 

This makes sense to me, as the Aleutian ridge is likely to be flatter than last season in the mean; however, I do not expect a record RNA in December this season....so there is likely to be more beneficiaries of an episode of early season Atlantic blocking. Favoring north, deep interior, and higher terrain, probably.....

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37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes sense to me, as the Aleutian ridge is likely to be flatter than last season in the mean; however, I do not expect a record RNA in December this season....so there is likely to be more beneficiaries of an episode of early season Atlantic blocking. Favoring north, deep interior, and higher terrain, probably.....

Lol I think we can rest assured we won’t see a record RNA like last December. The EPS seasonal depiction is showing an east-based -NAO which would probably be beneficial to interior central and northern New England. I think areas near the coast are going to have problems early on in the season with the bathwater just off shore

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lol I think we can rest assured we won’t see a record RNA like last December. The EPS seasonal depiction is showing an east-based -NAO which would probably be beneficial to interior central and northern New England. I think areas near the coast are going to have problems early on in the season with the bathwater just off shore

Yea, precip type issues to be sure, but it shouldn't be boring.

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37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Euro looks to me like an Aleutian ridge consistent with a basin wide la nina...certainly not as poleward as last season, but not completely flat like some of the horrid cool ENSO seasons, either.

This pattern implies to me that while there is really no mechanism to drive the cold s & e, which will create precip type issues (especially south and near the coast) early on in the season, the periods of NAO should create some favorable tracks.

Oct 2022 (T+744)

 

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Basin wide composite....like the Euro image above, also medium height Aleutian ridge and not so hostile polar domain.

Hybrid%2BH5.png

 

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JMF looks like it trends more gradient, as the we lose the NAO, but the Aleutian ridge also gets gets a bit more favorable.

That to me implies the opposite issue from December, but perhaps kind of the same result. Ample cold source, but some messy tracks.

JFM looks colder than OND in terms of anomalies.

Jan 2023 (T+2952)

 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Forget snowfall amounts, but the progression of the EURO seasonal reminds me a bit of 2010-2011 (also basin wide, but more biased east) in the sense that it tries to have a favorable early season NAO hand off to a more favorable PAC look mid season, before maybe ending on a quiet note.

Oct 2022 (T+744)

Nov 2022 (T+1488)

Dec 2022 (T+2208)Jan 2023 (T+2952)

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty classic basin-wide season, save for maybe a colder colder mid season, than early.

 

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This is Europe centered and the mean is misleading since it’s skewed by different ENSO years but there is something useful to be gleaned. 
 

These years featured a pretty good December -NAO. But other than the Nino years they mostly didn’t do much good for our area.  The cold enso years were pretty low on snow. 
 

Positive though most did feature some snow so the idea it will likely snow some this year is supported.  But this is why I’m skeptical of focusing on a front loaded winter. More often than not we waste even a good pattern before Xmas. I know the thought of holiday period snow is nice, I like that too, but ideally we really want our best patterns to line up in January and February if we want some confidence we benefit from it. 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not so sure this Niña is basin-wide

 

The Climate Prediction Center is.

 17AUG2022     20.1-0.8     24.3-0.8     25.7-1.2     27.7-1.0
 24AUG2022     20.3-0.5     24.5-0.4     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.8
31AUG2022     20.3-0.4     24.5-0.4     25.9-0.8     27.6-1.1

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Its basin wide with a westward lean. Also interesting to note that the robust la nina certain Twitter circles keep calling for is nowhere to be found.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is Europe centered and the mean is misleading since it’s skewed by different ENSO years but there is something useful to be gleaned. 
 

These years featured a pretty good December -NAO. But other than the Nino years they mostly didn’t do much good for our area.  The cold enso years were pretty low on snow. 
 

Positive though most did feature some snow so the idea it will likely snow some this year is supported.  But this is why I’m skeptical of focusing on a front loaded winter. More often than not we waste even a good pattern before Xmas. I know the thought of holiday period snow is nice, I like that too, but ideally we really want our best patterns to line up in January and February if we want some confidence we benefit from it. 

About 3-4 good months of December up this way...interesting.

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Something tells me that this not one of the HM Tweets that @snowman19will be sharing....not enough +++++AO/NAO talk :lol:

 
West QBO / solar max condition in previous research was not a runaway +AO or weak planetary wave signal. In fact, it was found to have decent amplitude wave activity (Calvo Marsh 2011). In addition, there's no indication yet that the water vapor cooling will dominate all lats.
 
 
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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something tells me that this not one of the HM Tweets that @snowman19will be sharing....not enough +++++AO/NAO talk :lol:

 
West QBO / solar max condition in previous research was not a runaway +AO or weak planetary wave signal. In fact, it was found to have decent amplitude wave activity (Calvo Marsh 2011). In addition, there's no indication yet that the water vapor cooling will dominate all lats.
 
 

All joking aside, most of those years aren't good ENSO matches...2000 maybe passable. It was also west-leaning, but weaker...at least at this point. Perhaps not over the winter.

The main take away as that certain circles of folks on the internet get too carried away with volcanic impacts.

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Its funny how Tweets mentioning that every esoteric wind anomaly at varying levels of the tropical atmosphere over East-Butt Crack supports a strengthening la nina get posted, but the elephant in the room named ONI is seldom mentioned. Perhaps it doesn't want to play nice with the ENSO agenda?

Interesting trend.

2022 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8
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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

About 3-4 good months of December up this way...interesting.

That’s why I’m pretty low on my expectations.  Not because I think this is some 2002/2012/2020 blowtorch non winter.  But if you look at even the colder comp cold enso years and westerly QBO years they were pretty bad down here. Even the ones that were snowy Philly north. They just don’t work here 90% of the time.

One reason to always hold out hope here though is 1999/2000.  I bring that year up a lot.  90% of that winter every factor was all wrong. But we got a 2 week decent (it honestly wasn’t even great) pattern and got lucky. Hit on 3 straight storms. Most remember that as a good year but it was dreadful in terms of the pattern and easily could have been a total dreg year like 2002 with a little less luck. 2001/2002 on the other hand had a decent pattern much of Dec and early Jan but we had bad luck, missed one storm south another cut just inland and a third hit but was weak and didn’t maximize potential. Those 2 years could easily have been flipped with some slightly different luck. And you can’t predict that. 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s why I’m pretty low on my expectations.  Not because I think this is some 2002/2012/2020 blowtorch non winter.  But if you look at even the colder comp cold enso years and westerly QBO years they were pretty bad down here. Even the ones that were snowy Philly north. They just don’t work here 90% of the time.

One reason to always hold out hope here though is 1999/2000.  I bring that year up a lot.  90% of that winter every factor was all wrong. But we got a 2 week decent (it honestly wasn’t even great) pattern and got lucky. Hit on 3 straight storms. Most remember that as a good year but it was dreadful in terms of the pattern and easily could have been a total dreg year like 2002 with a little less luck. 2001/2002 on the other hand had a decent pattern much of Dec and early Jan but we had bad luck, missed one storm south another cut just inland and a third hit but was weak and didn’t maximize potential. Those 2 years could easily have been flipped with some slightly different luck. And you can’t predict that. 

1999-2000 is actually a pretty good ENSO match in terms of placement if the SST anomalies (basin wide with west lean), but this event will be weaker.

That season sucked up here.

But your point is exactly what I am getting at...on paper, there is no way that this season looks good for your area, but there is a path for it to be decent...perhaps even a bit wider of a path than there was that year.

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